mikew

Yeah I suppose so, simulating for several months should be enough to give you a good idea. But is statistical samples the only way to determine if you have an edge? Suppose you simulate for 6 months and win consistently, and then you go live and the market changes and you no longer win. It seems to me the WHY behind the trades is where the true edge must be, but I'm having a hard time figuring it out..

How do you develop some basis for entry, that you can reliably determine has an edge? Certainly theres plenty of traders who have developed a basis for entry when two moving averages cross one another. But how can you be sure of what you're choosing actually DOES have a long-term edge?

The alternative is deflation and another Great Depression. Who wants that on their hands? Policy makers will continue to push the problem into the future

much prefer Rubinstein's interpretation

No, but I was looking into them

Yeah thanks, already started reading this. Really good

Good discussion, I'm definitely on the same page as you guys Yes, and these questions are very very difficult to answer for me. Are there people that can answer these? Is it even possible? Or is everyone in the markets just gambling? Playing the players seems infinitely harder in trading because you can never know who is on the other side of your trade. Instead of playing against one person, you are playing against the collective. exactly.. So how does one go about figuring out "how trading works" ?

Velocity Futures is a popular one

I'm not sure what exactly you're trying to say with your post.. but I have an idea because I can relate. Having been a successful poker player, I can pretty easily weed out the good advice from the bad. And let me tell you, 90% of poker advice is bad. 90% of poker instructional books are crap written by losing players who wouldn't stand a chance in a game with real professionals. And the people with the firmest opinions are usually in those 90%. I think trading is probably similar. So as I attempt to learn trading, I am constantly filtering through books, posts, and other material trying to find some solid ground to base a foundation on. So far, I've yet to find anything that I feel is really useful. Now, as you're saying, maybe I'm not 'ready' to understand some books and missing the point, but I don't think so. Ultimately I need to follow the path that I think and feel is appropriate. I haven't found that path yet in the markets. I just don't think many people have a clue (just as with poker). The closest thing that has grabbed my attn is dbphoenix's price/volume stuff spread across this site, t2w, and et. But even that doesn't fully satisfy me. I reckon most people are just gambling in the markets with no real edge. I don't want to waste my time doing that. I've spoken with one prop trader through email who I believe actually knows what he's doing, but the communication is sparse, i think because he doesn't want to give anything away. So despite my being a newbie in the markets, I feel fairly confident with my answers below. Some might, most probably don't. Like I mentioned above I think that I do, but its not because I'm special, but rather just because of my background in similar fields. Yes, but its unlikely the luck will last as things change. That is of course, unless they hit and run and get out before reality strikes. Usually this will be the case.

Hrm, ok so basically its one reported trade that goes through on the T&S. So a 500 tick chart would mean 500 trades per bar. Got it

I understand what a 5minute chart is and I understand what a constant volume bar chart is. I assume a tick chart is when each bar changes after the price ticks up or down a certain amount of times?

Thanks, I signed up for iqfeed demo and will also try Sierra Chart. I like that I can have MarketDelta functionality for 1/4 the price

So is DTN IQ Feed accurate or not? Seems like you contradict yourself..

Sounds great. What did those prop guys tell you? How did they open your eyes? What did they teach you that was different? I'm very interested in your reponse!