Anonymous

Please see #6.

It is in my world but thanks.

Welcome. There is more than one definition for No Demand. In the book the base definition is given as a narrow spread bar closing up with volume less than the previous two bars. The Trade guider definition, also in the book, is a narrow spread bar closing up on volume less than the previous two bars AND closing on the middle or low of its range. Joel Pozen would define a No Demand as simply any bar closing up with volume less than the previous two bars. Or a bar closing equal, on volume less than the previous two bars with the previous bar higher than the bar two bars ago. Still others would include any buying bar (a bar with a higher high, but not a lower low than the previous bar) that has a narrower range and with volume less than the previous two bars is No Demand. If it closes either up from or equal to the previous bar. The underlying element is volume less than the previous two bars on equal or up closes. Note if the close is down and the we have a buying bar with the close on the low, the we have a hidden Upthrust in the form of No Demand. Sorry, I don't think I have really answered your question. I guess the reason is, the question you should be asking yourself is "How am I comfortable defining No Demand within the context of market behavior and amidst the various possible elements set forth?". I have added this beautiful pic from Monday. Note the two No Demands on the right of the Dotted line. The first one obviously closes on its high and has a smaller range than the previous bar. Plus it has volume less than the previous two bars and is a buying bar. The second one has a greater range than the previous bar and closes near its low. It has volume less than the previous two bars. It is a buying bar (positional relationship), but the low closes signals no real buying going on. This is a Hidden UpThrust in the form of No Demand. TG software would NOT pick up either of these.

Thanks SoulTrader. I am going to attend (I think you already know that, but I just found this thread). Let's hope the market is full of movement and BB games.

Very interesting. First, I need to give more props to Jperl and his threads on VWAP. If you have not looked at them, it's your loss. One interesting thing he mentions is the idea of skew. I will not get into it here, except to say that zero skew would mean that the VWAP and the POC (PVP as Jperl calls it) would be the same. So what does that mean to me? Well, take a look at the chart below. All the pivot lines have converged to the POC. In other words, only the POC can be seen. This happens when the range is narrow, the close is in the middle and price was evenly distributed. Take another look at those last two words: Evenly distributed. Now, an even distribution of volume and price should result in near zero to zero skew. Notice how close the VWAP is to the POC. We have almost no skew. Put another way, the VWAP and the POC are 1 pip off from being the same. The orange line above Yesterday's high is a Naked POC. Wed did not make it back up to the POC so we now have a Naked POC. The blue line is a 2 day VWAP. As stated before, the narrowness of the profile (one line) should mean that tomorrow will be more volatile. Not so coincidently, tomorrow (Thursday) is rate decision time for the ECB.

Jperl; That is indeed in direct contrast to the Universal method used by Enthios. What do you think about the NTR then? NTR: Natural Trading Range

Completed Profile: Dotted line is at 1700- the time the profile is calculated. That means all lines except for the blue lines (Initial Balance Extensions) are done prior to today's trading. Check out how price move within these areas before the break out. Of note is the new green line. This is the VWAP. Thanks to Jperl for the idea. Obviously this is a static version rather than dynamic one. It is based on a 30 min chart. So this was the Volume Weighted Average Price as of 1700. The blue lines are done after the first hour of trading (opening range=initial balance). If I was trading ACD, these would be my Aup and Adn levels. However, they are just extensions 1.1765*OR+ORH or ORL-1.1765*OR. Some may be familiar with the extension as OR/.85 same thing. This was not a trade, but very interesting to see: Note the No Demand just after 1700 hrs @ 1715. Price is closing outside of the Value Area (DRH-DRL). Three bars later we are back into the Value Area. Price moves all the way to the other side and beyond. Hitting the POC of the previous day (so even with this sell off, this will not be a Naked POC). Price moves down and gets rejected at the RRL (lower purple line). After that, the VWAP really contains price as does the ERL (lower dark purple line). Note the Squat as price tries to move up which ends up forming a tweezer pattern. Then note the No Demand/UpThrust bar. The top of this candle is just inside the Value Area. Yesterday's Value is truly being rejected on last time before the bottom falls out.

You are a bit late to the party. Not that that is a bad thing. Its just that there are so many site that had to shut their doors when the legislation was passed. Here is a list from cardplayer.com When we say take U.S. players, we mean real money. Not play money . net sites. Party poker was the largest site on the net bar none before the ban. Paradise poker is one of the oldest and most respected. Doyle's Room just recently came back but on a new network. WPT card room not on the list but despite all the US viewers of the show, the site never took U.S. players. Hollywood poker and all the sites on that network no longer take U.S. Players. Cardplayer poker is a free site. They don't take money from anybody.

There are only a few sites that take U.S. players these days. Besides, if you can't find a game because there are no players what's the point of an "under the radar" site? Poker Tracker is good too. .....But if you're looking for fish and don't mind short handed tables, True Poker.com is good.

I think you're right. That last candle does look like No Demand to me. The real key is the Hammer that you alluded to. We probably need to see more volume to push through that level. Having said that, the game is fixed. The fed, whose mandate is unemployment and INFLATION, now has taken on the job of supplicating to the market.

Full Tilt Poker is the best. Are you more a ring game player or a tournament player? If you like tourneys, check out Pocket 5's.com for info and instruction. If you want to get a bit serious with your play, you really need all three of the following: 1. Full Tilt Poker (Ivey's site-'nough said) 2. Poker Superstars (Sunday Million & World Series of Online Poker.)-Usually has the most seats to the WSOP. 3. Ultimate Bet

LOL. Not exactly a new revelation. ACT AS IF. Of course, as you add time to bar you change the way it looks. The close on a 15 minute bar will not necessarily be the same as the close on an 18 minute bar: there's three more minutes of price action in it. The first thing I would say, is you have to trade what you see. If you use 16 minute bars than you base your trades off of what is there. You can not be asking yourself what does this look like on a 19 minute chart? Now, you can use multiple timeframes but make better trades but that is not the same as questioning THE timeframe you use. There is a particular Price Action trader who advocates using three timeframes to follow the BBs (Big Boys): 8,13,21. These are not traditional timeframes. They are Fib numbers, and they are not default timeframes on most software packages. He believes in them and thus uses them. So the point is, find the timeframe or frames that suit your needs and beliefs. One of the tenets of VSA is that there are professional at work in the markets and they are on VARIOUS timeframes. We can argue how many are trading off a 16 minute chart because that is a harmonic number related to an octave of music (Murrey Math) versus a 15 minute chart. But the real question is are you, the one who's money is being put at risk, comfortable trading on a 16 minute knowing that less traditional times don't change the story, but do make it fuzzy? Now, as much as I love elements of Murrey Math and Fibonacci, I have a hard time believing that the Smart Money is using a 19 minute (cycle of time number & Murrey's universal number rounded down) timeframe as opposed to a 15 minute chart. But if I wanted to use a 19 minute, I would simply ACT AS IF (they did).

To answer your question, VSA looks at volume in two ways: relatively and absolutely. The technical definition of No Demand would include volume less than the previous two volume bars. Therefore, even if the volume is (absolutely) high, it can still be low if it is less than the previous two. There are times when a volume bar is the highest volume bar that can be seen on the chart, and this would imply high to ultra high volume on a relative basis. Although I use the term absolute, VSA doesn't actually care about the exact number. In other words, you are correct that that volume bar is high in absolute terms (whatever the actual number is). In fact, had that bar been a Test, we would say the Test failed due to high volume. Even though the volume would still be less than the previous two. Therein lies the key: when looking at No Demand/No Supply the relative nature of volume is of most import. When looking at Test, both relative and absolute levels need to be taken into account. Also keep in mind the basic bullish/bearish volume tenets. * Bullish volume is increasing volume on Up closes. * Bullish volume is decreasing volume on Down closes. * Bearish volume is increasing volume on Down closes. * Bearish volume is decreasing volume on Up closes.

Here is a chart from today (Friday) with the Pivot Profile for Friday (to be used Monday). The only lines that change for Monday are the blue IB lines. These are based on the Opening Range (Initial Balance) and thus will be calculated after the London open Monday morning. Remember the Profile is based on 1700 hrs to 1700 hrs as per my broker CMS. The dotted black separates Thursday from Friday.

Szymon; I owe my Pivot Profile to Mark's work. I checked to see if the videos were there and they were not. But if you want some insight into ACD, there is a good thread I can recommend. PM me if you want to know where. P.S. Check out my last chart on the VSA thread. Although it is not, it looks like a "fade the Aup trade".

What did they know and when did they know it? : Hello ev1. Interesting chart here. Let's get the some stuff out the way first. Note the narrow Profile. This happens sometimes and when it does, it is obviously less akin to a Market Profile than usual. However, the fact that it is narrow allows us to be prepared for Volatility. (see posts on this in MP thread). Dotted black lines are Psych levels. Blue lines are based on Initial Balance Range (first 30 min.) see any source on Market Profile for more information. Okay, Let's see what we have here. On the left side of the chart there is a nice buy set-up as we get a No Supply within the range of a Dark WRB. The more important thing here is that this is a time where the Smart Money is doing more BUYING than SELLING. That is, they are getting net long during this period. Check out the Test candle just prior to the burst in price to the upside. They wanted to make sure the path of least resistance was up when the news came out. Why? Maybe so they could sell into it. Now we have our Ultra Wide Spread bar on Ultra High Volume. This candle closes up, but it closes below its midpoint. Clearly if all the volume was buying the candle should be closing on or near its highs. What is interesting is that price gets rejected just below the Pysch level of 1.950. On a closing basis, price does not make it past the IBCRH: Initial Balance Containment Range High (Initial Balance Range *x + Initial Balance High). Initial Balance= 0230 hrs - 0300 hrs per Mark Fisher. Anyway, the next bar is down. How can this bar be down if all the volume on the prior bar was buying? The very next bar is No Demand. Note that this comes within the body of the WRB created by the Wide Spread up candle. This is THE place to get short. (I did not ). This is trading the reaction to the reaction. The Wide Spread Up Candle is the reaction and the subsequent down move is the reaction to the reaction. The Smart Money sold into the price rise as both profit taking and to get net short. So it appears that the Big Boys (BBs) where buying in anticipation of the news only to sell into it and drive the market down. To do this, wouldn't they have to have some idea of the news prior to release? Yes Virginia, the markets are manipulated.

With much props to Soultrader (Market Profile trader): Here is a shot from yesterday. We look left to trade right. The 15 min trend/profile chart sets the stage for the 5 min trade chart. Things get started when price shoots out of the Value Area (t) (Deviation Range) and finds support 1 pip above the 1.4800 psych level. We get a wide spread bar on high volume closing off its lows with the next bar up. This looks like a bottom reversal. Jump over to the 5 min. We see the same pattern forming here. The aggressive trader might jump in here. I am a bit more conservative and need to see certain things. Back to the Profile chart. One candle later we have 3 candles closing outside of the Value Area. Now we have enough to truly consider price to have traded outside of Value. Note that other Bottom reversal just to the left. Since price did not close out side of Value on more than just the dark candle, we are not looking at a 80% rule trade here. Some may note a total of 5 Value Area exits with re-entries (Although I would not consider them all trade set ups) with 4 of the 5 hitting the opposite side of the value area. Is 4/5>=80% ? You do the math. Anyway back to the bottom reversal of note. Let's jump over to the 5 min. Notice that we get a WRB about 5 candles after the reversal. This sets up a WRB support/resistance zone. Now we know that WRB signal possible changes in the supply/demand dynamics in the market. Which is why I like to take signals within the body of a WRB. Things don't always come out perfectly, or do They? Two Candles later, a nice Test forms. This not a regular Test, it is a Test in a Rising Market. An even more powerful type of Test. There is strength in the background to back up the bullishness of this candle. But wait, there's more . The very next candle that confirms the Test ends at the same time we get the first candle on the 15 back within the Value Area (t). In other words, an 80% rule trade sets up as we get a Test in a rising market that is just slightly out of the body of a WRB with both periods showing a bottom reversal. While it is not a stretch, There is a Long Shadow that the Test bar is completely within. But leaving that aside, the point is with a little less rigidity AND confirmation from an unrelated element, the trade remains valid.

Very nice Soultrader, thank you. Good eye on that squat at the top there. Narrow range candle with increasing volume into new ground: end of a rising market. Keep 'em coming very informative and just plain fun to watch.

Sheptrader, Awesome. Simply awesome. Thank you so much. Please keep 'em coming. It is nice to see other takes on how to apply Volume Spread Analysis to the markets. It helps us all become better traders.

Thanks Piggyback. Nice job. Please keep the charts coming. We can all learn and grow together. Just curious why you are using the "training wheels" chart?

Torero; I am a big fan of this software. I love to go to dacharts and see all the charts posted by Ensign users. Most of them have too much stuff on them for my tastes (indicators) but they are cool to look at. I like MetaStock because the programming language is so easy. I would rather learn how to trade than learn how to program software. Let me know what think about the programming features the software has.

There are at lest three ways to calculate Value Area and POC information. One is done using TPO or Touch at Price counts. The second is based on Volume at price counts. That is why you may see different MP numbers from different sources. Many, if not most, of the time the values are the same. But of course there can be differences. So even if you use TradeStation and have the option of what to use, you could get different values as somebody else. The Enthios price histogram is awesome. It's the Ensign version. As far as which is better, I think that might be as subjective as which platform is better. And we know how divisive that can be.

Well I certainly see Smart Money buying before the up move here. So I guess that means I do.

Before that, take a look at this chart. The dotted line is @ 1700 hrs New York time. I've "zoomed" in by taking off Yesterday's high and low so the price action can better be seen. I need some objective opinions: am I off base here? Do these lines which were calculated based on Tues. trading 1700-1700 hrs both capture what happened on Tues. and show possible reaction levels for Wed.? Soul: there are really two things going on here. First, remember that the Mark Fisher's pivot range is the basis for the Profile. In his book and system he uses the pivot range as a defacto volatility measure. That is, a narrow pivot range (for example narrowest range in 4 days) usually proceeds a range expansion day. When you step back for a second, this is nothing more than what is observed on a NR4 day. Hence, what we have here is as the market contracts, it reaches a point where it tends to want to expand. Low volatile preceding higher volatility. The second thing goes to the concept of Market Profile and Value in particular. As the area of Value narrows we move towards a perceived equilibrium in value. However, this equilibrium is not stable. In fact it tends to be easily upset. Which is sort of the opposite of a situation where the area of perceived value is wide. It makes intuitive sense. As both sides (Bulls and Bears) agree on value (making a narrow range) anything that changes that perception will effect BOTH groups. Where as if the value area was wide, One group would tend to be more prone to changes in perception than the other.

Today's profile. The key here is that this is the profile before tomorrow's Fed decision. (wed. 1/30/08). Notice that this is a complete profile. That is, every range is on the chart. The profile is very narrow as the market basically just meandered around today. Look for big movement tomorrow either way or both. In other words, the profile is also a defacto measure of volatility.