Roger Felton

If we agree that she did lose some trades, that was a statistical error, not a falsehood. This was many years ago. So, what are the other falsehoods? Everything else I've stated has come from multiple sources. If your sources state the complete opposite...that she was a market wiz, that she started with $100,000 and ended with $1,000, That there was zero chance that anything illegal was done, then what makes you so sure that your sources are correct? How can I dislike her? I don't even know her. Her socialist politics does not preclude her from earning a living...as long as it's legal.

Shoot the messenger if you wish but the point of the conversation was the probability of illegal trading activity on her part. I thought skepticism was allowed here at TL without fear of "know-it-all" name calling. I stand corrected. Perhaps she was smarter than I give her credit for...one of the quickest ways to start an investigation is to never lose. She did lose some trades and I stand corrected, again. Don't like Wikipedia? In a 1998 article, Marshall Magazine, a publication of the Marshall School of Business, sought to frame the trading, the nature of the results, and possible explanations for them: "These results are quite remarkable. Two-thirds of her trades showed a profit by the end of the day she made them and 80 percent were ultimately profitable. Many of her trades took place at or near the best prices of the day." I remain highly skeptical and I'm not alone by a long shot.

Interesting point, Blue, but that one-trader imbalance usually only moves the market a tick or so (pip if you're Forex). Who trades for a tick? Trying to keep track of how many traders are currently active in any market is a daunting task unless you're only looking at a 1-second time span. In the very next second, the scales can have tipped completely the other way...and usually do...and still not necessarily change the market's direction! Trying to determine if the "balance tippers" are right or wrong is highly subjective, in my opinion. NOTE: Subjectivity in trading isn't a bad thing if it works, it's just so damn hard to teach. That's how I always look at things...from a teacher's perspective. However, if you have succeeded in accurately determining when the market direction is "right or wrong", then you are a remarkable trader indeed and I mean that sincerely. If you could explain how you do that in a way that wouldn't take 10 years to grasp, I'd certainly be interested in learning more. Thanks!

Since I don't know her personally, I can only rely on getting my "facts" from reputable sources. Go to any of them, they're all the same. Here's the story from Wikipedia: "In 1978 and 1979, lawyer and First Lady of Arkansas Hillary Rodham engaged in a series of trades of cattle futures contracts. Her initial $1,000 investment had generated nearly $100,000 when she stopped trading after ten months. In 1994, after Hillary Rodham Clinton had become First Lady of the United States, the trading became the subject of considerable controversy regarding the likelihood of such a spectacular rate of return, possible conflict of interest, and allegations of disguised bribery,[1] allegations that Clinton strongly denied. There were no official investigations of the trading and Clinton was never charged with any wrongdoing." "Various publications sought to analyze the likelihood of Rodham's successful results. The editor of the Journal of Futures Markets said in April 1994, "This is like buying ice skates one day and entering the Olympics a day later." Whether she ever lost on any of those trades is irrelevant. Taking a $1000 account to $100,000 in 10 months smacks of insider trading. I have no proof but I do have an opinion and I think statistics, logic, common sense and experience would support my view...and the view of many other trading professionals. Am I a "know it all" simply because I'm skeptical...or because I'm not a Socialist Democrat?

Is a tick, range, volume, Heiken Ashi or minute chart an instrument? Not by my definition.

You bet, MM. You gotta admire the "luck" of anyone who knows nothing about trading cattle futures yet can make hundreds of trades and never lose. Not even once. She's a trading icon in my book.

Kiwi, Kiwi, Kiwi....tisk tisk tisk....how can you say such a thing about such a fine woman who almost became our President? Are you suggesting she cheated? Well, so am I....but I think you and I are the only ones who figured it out...

I have a couple of clients in the UK who do spread betting. I'm still a bit foggy on the details but it sounds fundamentally different from the bucket shops in the Forex. Sounds as if the SB firms have a nest on the ground...win when they win and win when they lose!

I'm sure BH is a great guy and inappropriate humor is my middle name. When I was a radio announcer, I got in trouble at least twice a week....can't believe some of the things I said. BH will continue his "bag" humor, I'm sure, but I never thought for a second that his references were directed at me or my family personally. Was never an issue. I've had several Brits in my group over the years and the goofy things they come up with...and with that accent...geez, funny stuff. Anyway, let's move on and get back on topic...trading. Thanks for the insight, MM

What's so hard about trading without a chart? Charts only tell you what a particular market did in hindsight. They're just another indicator. Who needs 'em. When I fly I never use instruments. Pilots should already know if they are airborne or still on the runway. Who needs a compass when you have the sun? Maps and GPS are for sissies. If you don't know where the heck you are, what business do you have trying to go anywhere? Traders always get bogged down with useless stuff like charts and other such nonsense. Hillary Clinton never looked a chart and she never lost a trade in cattle futures. You can't be a pansy all your life. Toss those charts and trade macho. A blindfold would be a nice touch, too.

This is off topic and will get deleted...so be it. I like a good joke as much as anyone. It's just the really offensive ones that hurt others that I can't stand. Crohn's disease is a terrible thing to watch someone you love suffer with and die from. I should have just left this thread and said nothing. I hate conflict almost as much as hurtful jokes. I just wish MMS had seen fit to remove the comments that I (and apparently one other) found offensive, but he chose not to. Oh well...if I don't like them then it's my problem, right? Don't expect sensitivity to take root in TL, MM. It won't. But I pray that the insensitivity at least slows down and I pray also that karma does not exist. I'm done on this topic and on this thread.

Probably best. My Dad had a colostomy bag for a few years and died from it. I get a bit irate when someone jokes about it. Nobody cares, I know, but I feel better for at least speaking out.

Yeah, I'm getting pretty sick of the filthy rhetoric here too. Absolutely no need for it whatsoever.

I know a lot of traders who use MA's that are far above average. I meet or exceed my daily goal about 90% of the time and, from my experience, that's not exactly average. But you and I probably use a different way to measure "average". I'd love to watch you trade sometime...must be something to behold.

Not sure about your experience and there are a lot of Renko Bar types...some are not good. I mention them here because I have about 80 traders using mine and they would not consider using anything else as a main trading chart. Just goes to show that one traders blessing is another's curse. They do tend hide what price did intrabar but I just about have that problem solved so nothing is hidden. Heiken Ashi bars have the same problem. But, as long as the bars are rising, so does price. They do smooth but they don't lie to ya.

Yeah, sorry....had posted on another thread and realized it hadn't been used in over a year. Nobody goes there & couldn't take it down .

You might be missing the point. If the rotten trading time looks this good, think how great the good times are.

It's also been said that bad luck is when Opportunity knocks so hard that you need Preparation H.....ok, sorry...couldn't resist...

It may sound odd but, for most traders, getting out of those meatgrinders unscathed is the worst thing that can happen. It's almost guaranteed that they will do it again. For some, it will become a habit. Traders tend to go bonehead and only remember the one time it worked. Panic and desperation can sure turn some traders into Larry, Curly or Moe in a hurry. I'm relieved that it sounds like you didn't enjoy the ride and won't be considering any encores. Good for you...

Thought I'd add this tip to this thread since I found it so rewarding over the years... Personally, I believe that how you visualize the markets you trade is every bit as important as your method of trading them. Most traders are aware of the various common bar types such as the time-based, tick, volume, range, etc. For some time now I have been using bar types that give me a much clearer look at what Price is doing and where it headed. As an example, let's look at Gold (GC) in NinjaTrader: Chart A is a typical looking 5 minute (time-based) chart. The time spans late afternoon on 6/12/12 to the early morning of 6/13/12. As hard as you try, it's unlikely to get a good idea of what Price wants to do if you're a short-term intraday trader. If you're a trend follower, this market will give the ole buns a workout. It zigs and zags in herky jerky fashion and doesn't seem to want to hold a direction worth a hoot. No wonder so many traders get murdered trading time-based charts. Some improvement might be seen by moving to a Tick or Range chart. A lineBreak chart would not be a bad choice if set up and used correctly. Certainly, nothing could possibly be worse than this. But you're not likely to find a bar type that shows clearer Price movement than the Renkos, IMHO. There are a lot to choose from, however. To solve this, I built one I call the Renko Supreme that can instantly be made into any other type of Renko just by changing a few inputs. Any coder can do the same quite easily. Chart B shows the advantages of this chart type. This is a 22,1 Renko showing approximately the same period of time. Each bar body is 22 ticks and the step increments are one tick each bar. That is, each Renko bar closes one tick higher than the previous bar until it just can't go any further and reverses. This results in an incredibly smooth look at what price is actually doing without getting distracted by market noise. Traders wanting to use very small stops will choose a smaller number. Larger stair-steps can also be chosen but the bigger the steps, the jerkier Price will become. The Renkos sure made my job as a scalper a lot easier. Because I am a vendor, I'm not allowed in TL to teach how to best use them. There are some things you need to be aware of. But this post is only intended to get some traders to take a look at a wonderful bar type, overall, that I find has tremendous merit. Various types of Renko Bars can be found on the Internet. Give 'em a try.

No, mits, in my case I don't see the logic. When a trader stops learning, they become an ex-trader. Are you telling me that you never learn anything new?? You never grow? You don't strive to be a better trader? You've learned all there is to know about trading and are now the expert's expert? I'm betting that the truth is that you don't know everything. I'm also betting that you do learn something even if it's only once in a while. Just a guess, though. So why put down traders who are able to dig and uncover little nuggest of wisdom especially on a daily basis? I'm not talking about learning what S&R is or Fib Retracement. I'm talking about learning things like what algorithm works best for choosing the best chart & timeframe for a particular market. How to identify market turning points before it actually turns. What market dynamics were in play that might have caused a particular trade to fail? What unique market quirks should I be aware of in the ES that can help me in my trade selection? Mits, I am very sorry if you've gone as far as you possibly can in what you know about trading. Contrary to what you might believe, that's not a good thing. But why the snide remarks just because someone is able to learn when you can't. Wasn't it you that said we should put the disagreements behind us? I've moved on...why can't you?

Any trader who bases their trading strategy on luck probably won't be trading long. If, as it should, a trading strategy is based on probabilities, then luck has no bearing....unless, of course, you're Hillary Clinton trading cattle futures (yeah, right). When price comes within a tick of a stop and then turns and wins, that's not luck. That's just happenstance. Your stop was where it was for a reason...or should have been. Sometimes it will get hit, too. If your trading strategy is viable, the stop is usually not hit. For the sake of this discussion, I'm not talking about a trailing stop that eventually gets hit but with a profit. If a trader consistently enters trades where the stop is immediately hit, then the problem is trade selection, not trade management. If price moves towards the target but the stop gets hit before the target does, the problem is most likely trade management and not trade selection. But no such determination can possibly be made by looking at any single trade....or series of trades, for that matter. Trading is nothing more than a numbers game and the trader's job is to keep the odds in their favor. Too many traders allow themselves to get caught up emotionally in the outcome of a single trade when, statistically speaking, the outcome is meaningless when factored into the thousands of trades they will take in their trading career. Do your job right and everythig else will take care of itself...just not every time. Luck has absolutely nothing to do with it. So, get that silly meaningless word out of your trading vocabulary and get to work on probabilities.

Yes, Raaj, there are some free indicators that do that. I studied both candlestick and chart pattern recognition for a number of years and personally couldn't get any better than 50/50 accuracy...about like flipping a quarter. Perhaps you will do better. Keep me posted...thanks.

I'm still here because I was asked to stay by the moderator. After you've been trading a while you will learn that there is no such thing as the "end of the learning curve".

The market has something new to teach us every day. I never close my charts until I can identify what that "something new" is. Many hours per week are spent learning market behavior, developing unique and innovative ways of using Technical Analysis, finding clearer and effective ways to view the markets, keeping emotions in check, building patience, confidence and focus. I keep an extremely detailed journal and I review it often. I consistently find that the more time spent doing the above, the more "luck" I consistently enjoy in my trading results.