Roger Felton

Here are just a few reasons why Forex traders lose money...and why I'll never trade it again: Digging a hole to win a trade is always a bad idea. Would anyone bet on a Nascar driver that had to start off a lap or two behind everyone else? Natural slippage is bad enough without making it much worse on purpose. Giving up your "edge" usually means giving up your chance of success. Never put yourself in a position where you could actually be in competition with your broker when your broker has control that you don't have. The lightly regulated Forex is manipulated and corrupt...always has been and probably always will be. If you can't trade with a level playing field to every other trader, find a better vehicle. Any market, like the Forex, that allows a trader to open an account with just a couple hundred dollars is a total scam run by a bunch of bandits. Small account Forex traders NEVER win over time. Might as well go to Vegas and at least get free drinks while you get robbed.

Very good post, thanks. I moved back to my hometown about 5 years ago and looked up an old dear friend who I hadn't seen in nearly 30 years. He had become VP of a major Texas banking corp., retired, and now trades Options from a nameless, proprietary automated system he worked his buns off to acquire. His P&L for the past 4+ years is phenomenal, to say the least, and consistent month after month. Guys like him don't enter contests. He'd be mobbed by traders asking about his system ... just as I did. Would he share it with me? Yes...in his words, "For about 20 million". He did spend about 3 weeks teaching me some basic stuff the stragegy uses for free and he calls to let me in on a particularly sweet trade once in a while. That's friendship but he's no dummy. You know, when you have something like that, you don't give it to friends and you sure don't sell it on the Internet for $299. If you ever found anyone like my friend and they were willing to give their golden goose robot away or sell it on the cheap, they'd be idiots. It would be all over the Internet in every forum, any existing code would be cracked and it would implode virtually overnight. The point is, you won't find stupidity in the (true) top 1%... but traders still dream and hand over their wallets to any guy with a "verified" trading statement that looks good.

Want to show massive gains and no losers? Open 16 accounts. On 8 of them, go long and the other 8 go short. Do not use stops... just exit when 8 of your accounts have made so much money you don't know what to do with it all. In actuality, you broke even minus the commissions but, on paper, you look pretty good. Now take your winning accounts and go long 4 and short 4. Exit when your winners have made obscene profit. Toss the 4 losing accounts. Now go long with 2 and short with 2 and exit when the phone rings and it's the IRS. Finally, after tossing the 2 losing accounts, go long 1 and short 1. After taking your final profit, you will still be essentially at break even in real P&L, but you will hold in your hand a statement that looks like you are a trader who hauls in money like a drug lord and never loses. With that valid legal account statement, that cost you almost nothing to produce, you can now become a Trading Guru and make millions. It's the oldest trick in the book but naive traders still fall for it. It's all they want to see and they'll rip their pockets off getting their wallets out. Have fun in the next contest....

I met a trader a few years back who liked to trade counter-trend. One day he tried to fight a particularly stubborn trend and his first and second attempts failed miserably. On his next attempt, he chatted, "Well, three's a charm". It wasn't. This story got me to thinking about the old 3-legged stool analogy. My, how rock-steady they are until you take away one leg...and their "charm" comes crashing down. But, what does this have to do with trading? A lot. The goal of trading is ultimate, consistent and lasting success, right? But, beyond that, "success" means different things to every trader. That is, we don't all aim for the same amount of money (profit) in the same period of time with the same amount of capital and risk using the same strategy. To achieve our own individual definition of success, there are some fundamental critical elements that can be considered to be the three "legs" of a stool. They are: Method, Mindset and Mastery. With an actual stool, each leg might be made up of wood, plastic or metal. In our "Trading Success" stool, each leg is made of a subset of components. Let's look at each one in detail: The Method leg is comprised of the markets you trade and how you trade them. The markets might be Equities, Options, Futures, Forex, Nadex, etc. The choices here are huge but not as many as the number of ways in which we can trade them. I often remind my students that, "There are several methods to consistently win and a million ways to lose". Trading with the right methodology is important and it's even more important to realize that the right method for one trader might be a disaster for another. For instance, when choosing a method, careful consideration must be given to the amount of complexity and the level of drawdown pain involved. Your method choice, no matter how well it works for someone else, will never work for you if it doesn't fit your personality and style. Many traders mistakenly believe that, if they find a winning method that fits, that's all that matters and vast riches are theirs for the taking. Nope. The next leg of our trading stool is Mindset. This encompasses the entire spectrum of trading psychology. It goes well beyond just having a winning attitude and would certainly include patience, discipline, focus and maintaining unshakable confidence in the heat of battle. Developing the proper trading mindset involves overcoming the negative (as well as enhancing the positive) effects that human emotions play in assisting or sabotaging trading success. No trader ever consistently achieved their trading goals, no matter how good their method or system, without first achieving good psychological control. The final leg of our stool is Mastery. You can have the greatest trading method in the world and have total emotional control but you will fail to succeed if you are not totally knowledgeable and competent in what you are doing. A golfer, for instance, can identify all of the great techniques (Method) that the pros use and have total confidence in their ability to become a Sneed, Palmer or Woods, but, before that's ever going to happen, they're going to have to hit a lot of golf balls (Mastery). This means more than just practicing, however. Practice doesn't make perfect if you practice bad habits and a lot of traders do just that and never realize it. This is where good professional mentorship comes in and it's the only way a lot of traders are able to stay on target for the long haul. So, next time you're getting ready to trade, ask yourself how many legs are supporting your Trading Success. If you don't have all three, the markets will charm you right out of your money faster than you can fall off a 2-legged stool.

Thanks, wadams, for the support. Trust me, confidence isn't something I'm short of. I get approval and validation every day but this ego doesn't need it. Criticism is a part of life and everyone could probably use some. But there's a big difference between healthy constructive criticism and character assassination...a difference between expressing personal opinion and making personal threats. I came to TL to share and help in any way I could. I envisioned providing the group with some very useful indicators and bar types and then perhaps conducting some intensive training webinars for the group to get the maximum benefit. Traders Lab was to be the exclusive location where non-student traders could go to obtain these indicators and training. Membership would logically increase...possibly dramatically. The best forums are the ones that are growing. Right now, there are about 3 or 4 TL members who have expressed encouragement and I really do appreciate that. I really like Mark and the rest of the group who work hard to make TL the best. I have some options that came up over the holidays but, with or without my contributions, Traders Laboratory will continue to do well.

Those who want to build buns of steel but don't want to join a gym

At this point, the indicator has not been coded by us in TradeStation, just Ninja. The concept is fairly simple but getting the true back-testable OHLC in a Renko was somewhat tricky. Check the TS forums. Someone may have done something similar.

Nobody wonders why I wasted my time more than me.

Thanks Db. No intent in "harvesting" whatsoever was ever intended. As you know, whenever I post anything, it is immediately criticized and labeled as advert. At this point I have no idea if the thread I started will continue. Presently, the thread appears to have only served to create more animosity towards me and I really don't feel any need or particular member appreciation for it's continuance. Just being honest. My plan was to post the "Lessons" in stages and upload indicators and chart types when appropriate explanatory information could accompany it. This would help prevent confusion and numerous questions caused by posting material ahead of the information necessary in explaining how to use it. The only TL member expressing any interest in the Renko Supreme Bars is wrbtrader. If he wants it, I'll give it to him for free. If he feels I am harvesting emails he should definitely not respond. Astute traders are fully aware of the damage that an unscrupulous vendor like me can do with one email address. I have no interest in posting anything here that I have a considerable time and financial investment in just to be criticized and insulted and have many hours of my work taken down because various members here deem it to be advert. I'm sure you understand. Hope you have a super 4th...stay safe!

Hello wrbtrader, I think you'll really like this Renko bar. Would like your feedback, if possible. I had planned on posting the FT Renko Sup over the holidays along with the other Lessons in the series plus some indicators. But some members consider my posts to be adverts....?? I'm not sure of the future of the thread so, to avoid any more possible animosity, PM me your email address and I'll get a Renko copy to you. Let me know if you have any questions.... Thanks, Roger

As I've stated several times in previous posts, I'm here at TL to freely share knowledge, indicators, charts, and anything else traders interested in learning want me to provide. The first post was intended to just basically be an intro to some basics and demonstrate that chart choices can matter. It was just the first in a planned series of lessons on Signals, Market Behavior, Trade Management, Some Psychology, and anything else traders wanted to discuss. I stated clearly in the first post that, anyone having any questions about anything could simply let me know and get clear complete answers. If there appeared to be any member interest, charts & indicators would be posted as soon as someone showed me where they go. Instead, all MMS got were complaints. So, my apologies for the effort. MMS has informed me the thread will be taken down.

Good point. But, in addition to poor money management, risk control, mental aspects and weak or bad training, etc., trying to master a complicated system of ineffective indicators usually doesn't go well. The paths to failure are many and they stay well worn.

The easiest way to demonstrate the point would be to take every indicator you can possibly find and put them all on your trading chart. Learn the principle and mechanics behind each one and then try to make money. You won't. There's a new indicator I found on a website for sale that measures the gravitational differential between the moon at high and low tide. This, is plotted in a wave form that tells you when to be long or short in any market. Personally, I think it's bunk but you might love it. There are a couple hundred more I could list but you might get the idea. The point is, what works for one trader will often not work for another. If there were one indicator that worked all the time in all markets for all traders, then everyone would be using it, right? The list of the most universally used indicators common among traders is relatively short. There's a reason. Every trader must objectively sort through the maze of indicators and find what works for them based on what and how they trade (style). I can assure you, the list won't be very long for most traders. If an indicator has no value for the way you trade, then, for you, it's useless. If you are having success running most of the hundreds of TA indicators on your charts, then congratulations. We all must find our own way. A good well-known book on TA that clearly explains why most traders get little to no benefit from the majority of indicators out there, is "Technical Analysis - The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians" by Charles D. Kirkpatrick and Julie R Dahlquist. If you disagree, MM, that's fine. My opinions are based many years of study and experience as a Technical Analyst. Your conclusions may differ. But, if most indicators have good profit value for everyone, as you seem to believe, then why do most traders fail when using them?

Hello MM, I think you are completely aware that I never said "all old indicators are worthless". Never happened and you missed the point entirely. If all old indicators were worthless, much of my system would be in trouble.

Steve46, from what I can tell by your vague post, you're a one man band. I can't imagine trying to run a real business with office staff, support personnel, sales department and full time programmer on a $1600 gross income. We don't have the luxury of going out of business whenever we feel like it. How about we have an agreement to respect each other's business model.

I think it's probably pretty easy to "armchair quarterback" the other guy and certainly no offense in your doing so with me. It's entertainment, I suppose. I'm up and at my computer by 6am (CST) every day. 2 to 3.5 hours later I'm on the simulator and moderating the FT room for only one and a half hours a day (my student/moderator does the rest). That hour and a half is the most enjoyable part of my day and I wouldn't miss it for anything. I'm with my friends...I help them and they help me. Since the markets are open 20+ hours a day, what trader can't find an hour and a half to do something they thoroughly enjoy? It's not a sacrifice, it's a blessing. Look, I'm not ashamed to say that I have no desire to try to moderate a room, answer numerous questions and PM's, constantly scrolling charts back to show previous day's examples... and trade my live account at the same time! That's nuts. Don't believe me...try it. Interruptions and distractions will kill ya when trading when seconds count and total focus is mandatory. Seriously, if you can find someone who can do that, then take their course and become filthy rich. Funny though, it just never works out that way. If I can't get my personal trading done in that 2 to 3.5 hours of peaceful quiet, something is very wrong. I learned a long time ago that enough is enough and trying to trade all day long is tiring...especially when I'm also trying run a business. The goal is not to take more trades...the secret is to make the trades you do take really count. It's not the number of trades, it's the number of contracts.

I'm starting this thread to share some of the many things I've learned over the years about market behavior and how technical analysis can help bring that behavior into "focus" and prepare the trader for what's about to happen next. The fewer the surprises, the fewer the mistakes, right? This thread is solely for educational purposes. It is my belief that, in trading, knowledge is essential but useful only when tempered with experience and a good dose of common sense. Some Basic Stuff - Let me start off by stating a personal opinion that might be helpful to you based on many years of extensive study: "Most Technical Analysis indicators found in platforms, books, magazines and the Internet are worthless." They lurk in trading-cyberspace like black holes. Once created and popularized, they live forever and feed on ignorance. The more time, effort and possibly money that's invested in them, the harder they are to escape. And they multiply like rats on steroids. At any given time, somebody somewhere is cooking up a new bowl of trading mush to feed to the unsuspecting...and they may be doing it with the best of intentions. If you don't keep an open mind, you'll never learn. If you don't remain skeptical, you'll learn the wrong things. Before we get started on our study of the Felton System, there's something else that's vitally important for all traders to understand: "There is absolutely no trading method or system in the world that, by itself, will ever make you a dime." Uh, oh. I think I just lost half my readers here....but, come on guys, think about it. Put aside what you've been chasing for the past umpteen years and be brutally honest with yourself. Does anyone actually believe that a trading system exists that you can buy or build in a day and be making money tomorrow? Or next week? Or next month? Why not? What else would a trader possibly need? It's Knowledge and Experience. They come from Training and Practice. All trading systems and methods are merely tools...like a golfer's clubs or a carpenter's saw. Their income generating value only manifests itself when they are placed in the hands of someone skilled in their use. Before any trader can begin to experience success through consistent goal achievement, they must master what I call the "4 M's of Trading". These include: Method - Success will remain elusive until a method is found that fits and works consistently because it's based on sound, proven trading principles. No single method will ever work equally well for all traders who use it. Market - A good system used in a bad (or incorrect) market usually doesn't go well. Whether you're a scalper or a trend trader, choose a market best suited for the way you trade. Mastery - You can have a super method applied to a great market and still lose if you lack having total mastery. Mastery is not confined to your method alone. You must have mastery of Market Behavior, mastery of your Platform, and you'll need one more mastery that is so important I'll list it separately: Mindset - You need mastery of your emotions. Until traders rise above and learn to control their feelings of impatience, anger, frustration, panic, desperation and anxiety, they will never enjoy any degree of lasting success. No trader can remain focused at the level necessary and make good sound trading decisions while in a state of mental turmoil. With that fully understood and out of the way, let's begin our study of the Felton Method. Please realize that teaching by text is one of the most difficult ways to educate and many questions may result. So, please let me know if anything isn't clear and needs further elaboration. Lesson 1 - The Felton Charts As a Method Developer, my goal has been to create market entries that enable traders to find profitable opportunities in trending, sideways, choppy or even congested market conditions. The best way I have found to accomplish this is in my chart type selection. In cases where the chart type I wanted didn't exist, I created it. The reason chart type matters can be demonstrated in a simple illustration of some various charts. I will include some of the signal types that I use (many that I've created) so that you can see the tremendous difference it makes by the chart type we choose. Chart A is a 15-min in gold (GC). A few signals were generated and easily filtered by some "with trend" settings but the market itself wasn't ever smooth. It would go from choppy/congested to violent volatility and then into a coma. Tradeable, yes...but not much fun. Chart B is a 987 Tick chart showing the same day's activity in GC. Although Tick charts are generally more "in tune" with what the markets are doing than time-based charts, this example shows little improvement with so-so entries and sloppy turns. We could gain some smoothness maybe if we tried Heiken Ashi or perhaps a Range chart, but we'd still have a mess of constantly opposing bars and market mishmash. It was only when I started putting Price in a "channel", of sorts, that I started to see the clarity of true price direction. In Chart C, the trader can easily see that, when Price changes direction, it tends to stay in that direction...especially when going with a trend. Notice the computer generated signals that warn and fire at most of the turns. Trend direction re-entries occur often...such as the ones shown with the orange arrows. These identify bars we call "Rockets" and they make a terrific opportunity to take additional profit in a trend. The reason for this can be explained later in the lesson on Signals. Nice 10 to 20 ticks or more profit can often be taken counter to the trend, also. Weak turns can often be spotted and filtered for avoidance using a momentum or simple oscillator. This chart looks like a traders dream...except for one thing. The bar data is incomplete and back testing is not possible. To solve this pesky problem, we created the Felton Renko Supreme, shown here in Chart D. The OHLC of every bar is shown in real time. Now I can use this powerful Renko chart to not only convert it into any other type of Renko Bar, but I can also perform all the back testing of various filters, signal entries and strategies I want. Although I don't rely on back testing much, it does tell me quickly if an idea might have legs. So, don't be afraid to get out of your comfort zone and experiment with other markets and bar types that might make your job as a trader much easier and more profitable. Be sure to make changes to your system only after a reasonable amount of forward testing. And remember, perfection is not possible but improvement often is. In Lesson 2, we'll be studying some of my favorite signal entries as well as some filters I use to enhance their accuracy.

Yes, I appreciate all feedback. In this business, nobody is ever going to please everyone. But I thanked SUIYA for his time and effort. I am sorry that he took offense at the chart I posted. It was intended as a small example of what I'm working on and able to share when complete. I had no idea he'd get angry about it. My apologies.

If I were here at TL to sell a trading course, I would fully understand someone being skeptical and wanting to see statements. I am here as Roger Felton, not Felton Trading. I am here as a fellow TL forum member who happens to be a trading educator (vendor). Correct me if I'm wrong but my understanding is that we are all here to help and contribute to each other on a FREE and open basis. I have indicators, chart revelations, and trading knowledge to share but I have to post statements first?? I missed the part in the TL rules that said vendor/members were requested to do this. Is this a new policy aimed at educators? I have clearly stated that I will not sell any of my business offerings to any TL member, yet I still seem held to a different standard than anyone else here. I've been here 3 years and haven't found a friendly soul here yet. Does anyone really think I want to try to pull clients from this pool? Can someone please explain the rationale because it makes no sense. To expect me to reveal personal financial information to a group of individuals whom I will never have any business dealings with is an absurd request. In fact, it sounds discriminatory and certainly be the ultimate form of self-promotion.

You're absolutely right, SIUYA. The rubbish does need to go. Hey, the Supreme Bars are mostly done. Have a couple of tasks left...put in the "Rockets" and the "S" trades...but it's looking pretty good. Notice the OHLC info is all there and the entry signals are firing exactly where they should here in gold. I know the method doesn't interest you but thought you might like taking a look at the chart anyway ...have a super weekend.

Believe me, SIUYA, nobody would appreciate not having to defend themselves here more than me. I'm sorry if you took that as "promoting". I am so tired of the "snake oil", "fake caring", "shark", "charlatan", etc. comments I really don't want to log in here anymore. I actually think the negativity here is worse than at Elite Trader. I have a ton of things to share including a new chart type I just completed yesterday that is vastly superior to anything I (and many other professional traders) have ever seen. Also have about a dozen indicators that are highly effective in filtering entries for strength / weakness. Sharing is what I've wanted to do here from the get go. But the vile unfounded accusations and personal attacks just won't stop....ever. Sure takes the fun out of contributing and helping others, ya know.

A person can be "misleading" without it being intentional. You stated that I would mention that I was in a trade, but would not bring it up on camera. I asked you to please tell me when it was that I did that. It's a pet peeve of mine when moderators do that because it smacks of "smoke and mirrors" which was the impression you left with Db when he said, "As for not showing charts at all of what's being traded, that's simply ludicrous." For Db to be given the impression that I don't show any charts at all isn't criticism, SIUYA, that is someone who was mislead. Knowing you the little that I do, I would say it was not intentional but I cannot let that kind of "criticism" slide unchallenged. You stated that you were "confused"...your words, not mine. That implied that you had questions and either were not given a chance to ask, or they were simply ignored when you did. The only other possibility was that you had questions but preferred to remain confused rather than get answers...which would not make sense. SIUYA, this isn't a matter of not being able to take criticism. Your comments about my company go out on the Internet and are there forever...it's what people see when they bring up my company in a search engine. If something isn't right, or gives the wrong impression, I would be remiss if I did not correct it. Unintentionally, it appears that your post gave Db the wrong impression (as you can tell from his response) and I felt it important to respond. If you have been following the posts here at TL, then you know why I had to state that I would not accept any payment from any TL member for anything. I tried to make it clear that I was, at all times, willing to help TL members in any way I could. It was a goodwill gesture that went largely ignored.

Thanks, SIUYA. Although no one is asking for my IRS tax returns, you and others are asking me to hand over financial statements that represent over 95% of my personal income to people I don't know....total strangers! That's nuts. I don't need clients that bad. I deal with professional traders every day and nobody ever asks me for that. If it proved anything or helped others become better traders faster, then I might consider it again, but it doesn't. You and I know that the most impressive trading statements in the world would not result in anyone joining FT from Traders Lab...never gonna happen...so, what's the point? TL is a good forum but has nothing to do with anyone becoming a future client of Felton Trading.

MM, this is simply a case of you believing that verified trading statements of one trader can somehow magically "rub off" and make someone else a better trader. That's the BS here. I feel safe in my suspicion that, as traders go, you're probably pretty inept. The anger and rage give you away. But, so what. None of my business. You're not trying to sell me anything and I'm sure not trying to sell you. In fact, I really feel sorry for whoever tries to sell a trading course or system to anyone here at TL. Just thinking about that cracks me up. I'm very proud of my accomplishments as a trader but, as good as my statements are, there is no chance anyone from this group would ever become a part of mine. There is no interest, no civility, and the intense negativity here would not go over well there. At some point it may finally sink in that I cannot and will not accept clients from TL. Everyone can relax. Once that's fully understood, perhaps the accusations might cease and, who knows, we might actually become friends over time.

I'm curious if you can you name one time while I was moderating the room that I took a trade and did not show it to the entire group? I usually enter with Limit Orders so trades are seen from beginning to end 99% of the time. I can't speak for my student moderator, Clint, since I don't monitor him constantly, but I visually show every trade I take unless the LO is set, filled and the target or stop is hit in 5 seconds or less. That is unavoidable. Also, could you name one time when you were confused about a trade and asked me about it and I did not go over it in great detail to make it clear to you? SIUYA, I think you are being somewhat misleading when you make these statements. Since you seemed to be confused a lot, how many times did you ask me to get together with you one-on-one in the room and completely explain everything to you in detail and answer all of your questions? I think the answer is "zero" even though I tell everyone often that I'd love the opportunity to do that. Your confusion would have been cleared up in a very short time. The "trading room" is actually more of a "training room". It is extremely difficult to try to copycat the trades of another individual especially when you don't know what he is looking for, what he is doing or why he's doing it. Training is everything. I also must disagree with you that sim and live trading are vastly different. I do most of my live trading between 6am and 7:30am CST and very often I will take the same trade on both sim and live platforms. Rarely is there any appreciable difference in the result. You seem to imply that in a sim trade, price will go in a completely different direction than it does in a live trade. They're identical! The data is the same! Using Limit Orders, getting same result both ways on the same trade is a very common occurrence.