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JohnnySDG
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Everything posted by JohnnySDG
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Sevensa, commissions ARE important. In any business you have to manage your costs. If you tade for 2 points on the ES you are making $100 less $5 commissions for a net of $95. The Commission percentage is only 5%. In your example its 40%. That is why scalping for ticks is a losing proposition. Its like playing the slot machines - you can't win. You have to manage commissions, slippage and every other cost. Including the cost of losing trades. In your scenario you win every trade. 5 trades per day. You won them all! Are you really going to tell me your are right 100% of the time? If you traded for 1 ES tick and won 4 trades and lost 1 tick on one trade you would make $30 for the 4 winning contracts (12.5 * 4 - $20 commissions) and lose $17.50 on the one losing trade ($12.5 + $5 commission) so your net is $12.50. You went from a $37.50 profit to a $12.50 profit with only 1 loser and 4 winners per day. If you traded four contracts in a $10k account that 80% winners would net you $250 or 2.5% per month (20 trading days). And you need to be right 80% of the time to do it. If you hit 3 out of 5 you make $22.50 (12.5*3 - $15) and lose $35 (12.5*3 + 10) for a net loss of $12.50 per contract. If you trade 4 contracts in a 10k account you lose $50 per day or $1000 per month. (10% loss per month!) That is the math, we can use words to try and confuse but the numbers are what they are. As for your other question... I live off my investments. I have others besides trading.
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Metatron, scalping is a receipe for disaster. Slippage and commissions will melt your capital like a snowball in Miami. Newbies have to remember 1 thing - Not only do >95% of all people lose money trading....but that 95% includes the people that claim to make money. I said this in another thread and I'll repeat it here. This "full time trader" idea is a fantasy. Its like playing pro sports, some will but most wont. Figure out a way to make a return on your capital. I'm willing to help out those who ask me. I don't sell anything and I ask for nothing in return. I've been trading over 20 years and find the "I don't give out my secrets" line to be a pile of crap. Trading is mostly about money management more than some "secrets of the pros". Fact is most people would lose money even if the best traders in world sat next to them and taught them for six months. If Eric clapton gave you 2 years of guitar lessons you still wouldn't be Eric Clapton. Now, with all that said, It is possible to make a good return on your capital. If you still think you can become rich trading full time then good luck. But, if you want to learn some trading reality I'm happy to help.
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Svensa, in your example the trader makes $250 and pays $100 in commissions. 40% goes to the house so explain to me how commissions are not the least of his worries. I'm not suggesting that $500k is required. I also make more than 1% per month but 1% is my goal. As for very few making a living with a 10k account - very few will make a living at it period. Most people on this site don't even make a living at it. The 95% losing stat is true here too. Forget trying to make a living, very few will do that. Simply try to make a good return on your capital. That should be the newbies goal before trying to trade full time. You also said that I "lost my shirt trying". You clearly took that WAY out of context. Here is my quote... "I have always been successful as an options trader and in the past when I tried to trade contracts instead of options I lost my shirt." I said I lost my shirt trading what is not my expertise. I do agree with you 100% that over leverage and no edge are major factors. But, commissions are definitely a factor as well. In fact I would say that no edge is the biggest factor. If you re-read my post I said they can't make enough profit to offset "loses and commissions". I was illustrating that they have to pair winning trades against both. Not to mention slippage. How can they possibly do this when they are basically shooting blind? I'm not ignoring average profit per trade. But, how will they make this profit? I know a lot of guys laugh when I tell them my goal is 1% per month. Its funny that none of the people who laugh are pros. Johnny
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Putting Together a Beginner Trading Group
JohnnySDG replied to martinguitar's topic in Beginners Forum
Madmarket, I would be happy to help out. I'm a 20+ year options trader and would enjoy helping the newbies out. As I mentioned in another post, I don't trade contracts so I can't offer any advice specifically regarding how to trade futures but I can certainly explain the mindset of a trader and money mtg. (ie. how to not to blow up an account) Johnny -
I've been trading for over 20 years and would like to offer some sound advice to help new traders avoid the quick wipeout. Why do over 95% of people lose money trading? Because they think they can make several trades per day and make enough profit to offset loses and COMMISSIONS. Lets say you have a $10k account and trade 4 ES contracts at a time. You're paying $20 RT each trade. If you make 5 trades per day that is $100 or 1% of your account. Trade 20 days per month and your 20% in the red before you make a dime. New traders are lured by the talk of riches but that is just not the way it is. Traders are making a return on capital, period. And, the rich ones are rich because they trade a lot of capital - usually someone elses. Newbies are dreaming when they think they can turn a $10k account into a fortune. What they should be thinking is "I want to trade to make a better return on my capital". Most likely this will be on a part time basis - Don't quit your dayjob. If you think you're going to trade 30 ES contracts with a 10k account (via that $300 daytrade sucker margin) your going to last less than 1 day. Probably a couple hours. When you get a large enough account that the rate of return gives you enough income you can make it a full time career. Who is going to teach you how to trade? The guys on the web who will charge you lots of $$$$$ for some BS. If they had a great strategy why sell it? You will need to spend hours and hours reading and watching markets to get an idea how things work. Its best to try and learn one market. When I trade, my goal is 1% net profit per month. This sounds like nothing and on a 10k account that is only $100 but its will add up in a few years. (1% per month compounds to 43% in three years) I also don't make a lot of trades so my commissions don't eat my profits up. Lastly, I want to point out that I'm an options trader. I have always been successful as an options trader and in the past when I tried to trade contracts instead of options I lost my shirt. The point is that I stick with what works. Others may trade futures successfully but its not what I do and I've lost money trying. Likewise, i'm sure that futures traders feel the same way about trading options. So, find what works for you and stick with it. By the way, when I say I'm an options trader I do not mean that I just buy options to make money. Buying options is usually a suckers play since most expire worthless or at best less that you paid for them. I use various option strategies although there are some times when buying an option outright may be a good risk, but this is pretty rare. I hope this post helps some of you before you give your money away. I'm sick of people getting BS'd by the predators. Johnny
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Focus my energy there? Pun intended? High Stakes, since you are new to trading you should focus on one market. Even if you have 1 trade per day. Remember, you are new and you should hone your skills in one market. You are trying to learn to trade as much as you are trying to make money. Another important issue to note is how much you make per trade. It is better to make one solid trade with a good profit than several scalps. That leads to money management..... Risk-Reward scenarios and position sizing are more important than your trading methodology. Lastly, trading crude is really going right into the lion's den. But, you can have some great trades. Proceed with caution. Best of Luck, Johnny
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Wow, that is exactly what I was looking for. I use composite MPs and DTN is a pain. You have to merge each day one at a time. This is super simple.
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I usually go with the volume.
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I often notice a difference between TPO and VOL on my DTN MP.
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Market Profile Needed for Composite Profiles
JohnnySDG replied to JohnnySDG's topic in Market Profile
Could you enter a date range for a composite profile? -
Market Profile Needed for Composite Profiles
JohnnySDG replied to JohnnySDG's topic in Market Profile
Chad, I spoke to someone at your company yesterday. I would like to hear more about your mp. Johnny -
I'm looking for a provider that has an easy way to make composite profiles. I've tried DTN, but you have to merge each day one at a time. Thinking of using the fin-al with ninja trader or perhaps the RT investor. Fin-al appears to do what I want but I wonder how good it is. RT looks good as well but I'm not sure if you can create composite profiles with it. It also has more feature than I probably need. What I need is accute MP data. I trade Grains and Livestock. Thanks, Johnny