Perrin

So close, and yet so far.

I'm trading stocks in the UK. At the end of the day, there's an Uncrossing Trade (UT) which is reported. This always seems to be large volume. Can anyone explain exactly what an Uncrossing Trade is? Or direct me to some light yet informative reading on the subject (ideally on the other types of trade types, too). I've read bits and pieces but I'm still not sure. My broker lists 32 different types of trades such as AT Automatic Trade, L Late Trade, O Ordinary Trade, but the information about them is not very informative. What on earth did everyone do before google and Traders Laboratory??? I know that I don't need to know this stuff to trade, because all I do is look at some bars on a chart and I ignore almost everything else. Whether that's right or wrong, doesn't matter really. However, being a curious sort, and of course being concerned that not knowing the ins and outs of trading may put me at risk, I thought that it might be useful to understand out what these AT, L, O, B, UT, etc., are. And not just the basic definition that the stockbroker states, but what it means in reality. Stockbroker standard definition of UT - Uncrossing trade: "This is used for for the single uncrossing trade detailing the total executed volume and uncrossing price as a result of a SETS auction." I understand there is an auction at 4.30pm after the UK market closes. Quite why, I'm not sure, as I did think the entire trading day is somewhat of an auction. In the modern day with the computer connections we have, is the 4.30pm auction necessary? The Uncrossing Trade seems to have an effect on the last price (what I did consider the closing price). Is the auction then just an extension of the trading day for a certain section of people? The closing price (at 4.30pm) does not stay the same, by 5.00pm it has changed. The logcial part of me used to say that 'the last trade for the day made at 4.29pm and 59 seconds is the closing price' - but this is not the case. I assume due to the Uncrossing Trade? My assumption has been that the Uncrossing Trade is the total volume, and average price, of the 4.30pm auction. Is it also the secret (?) or large (?) or unreported trades that were done during that day? Reading the list of different trade types, it seems as though some trades do not have to be reported when they happen, they can be revealed hours later, or at the end of the day instead? Who puts orders in to be filled during the Uncrossing Trade SETS auction? I currently think that it is big market makers, stockbrokers and such. Is it because they have traded during the day only with themselves - e.g. In total, their clients bought 50,000 shares in a particular stock and sold 20,000. They do not trade any of those in the real market during the day, instead they just buy 30,000 (the balance) during the auction at 4.30pm? Any thoughts or information to put me on the right track would be appreciated

Sixteen, I think You might have missed either the 2x2 square in the centre, or the 3x3 starting at the bottom left? Edit: darn, I was too slow to answer, I was beaten to it by BobC!

Not that I watch the EUR/USD at all, but in the spirit of joining in, I have had a 2 second glance at a chart while I enjoy a beer... um I mean I have done weeks of fundamental analysis, yes that's it... and I have opted for below 1.2975 If I get this right I'll set up a FX account and be a millionaire by the end of next week. If I get this wrong I'll just pretend I never made this call and try again next week instead. Bring it on!

It's interesting isn't it. The fear of missing out on a bargain. The greed involved in thinking that they need those products or items - even if they don't know what they are! Influenced by media and hype. Amplified by being in a crowd of like-minded people. Human nature! I imagine all of us have, at one time or another, bought at the top or sold at the bottom. In doing so, aren't we doing the same thing as those people? If only there were a way of profiting from this kind of behaviour...

I thought everyone would enjoy this crazy youtube video from "Black Friday" shopping in America. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=2PnhnnvyKkw (the following is from Wikipedia) Black Friday is the day following Thanksgiving Day in the United States, traditionally the beginning of the Christmas shopping season. On this day, most major retailers open extremely early and offer promotional sales to kick off the holiday shopping season, similar to Boxing Day sales in many Commonwealth Nations. Black Friday is not an official holiday, but many non-retail employers also observe this day as a holiday along with Thanksgiving, giving their employees the day off, thereby increasing the number of potential shoppers. It has routinely been the busiest shopping day of the year since 2005, although news reports, which at that time were inaccurate, have described it as the busiest shopping day of the year for a much longer period of time. The day's name originated in Philadelphia, where it originally was used to describe the heavy and disruptive pedestrian and vehicle traffic which would occur on the day after Thanksgiving. Use of the term started before 1961 and began to see broader use outside Philadelphia around 1975. Later an alternative explanation began to be offered: that "Black Friday" indicates the point at which retailers begin to turn a profit, or are "in the black." For many years, it was common for retailers to open at 6:00 a.m., but in the late 2000s many had crept to 5:00 or even 4:00. This was taken to a new extreme in 2011, when several retailers (including Target, Kohls, Macy's, Best Buy, and Bealls) opened at midnight for the first time. In 2012, Walmart led several other retailers in announcing it would open its stores at 8:00 p.m. on Thanksgiving Day, prompting calls for a walkout among some workers.

I liked the way they really layed into the guy who only did one trade this week. "You will never make us loads of commissions by just making one trade! Trade more or you're fired!" Um, not that I watched it, you understand. I've not watched all four episodes either. Oh I liked on the 2nd week, I think it was, where the new-to-trading lady did what she had been taught and traded like she was told to, and then she was kicked off because she didn't do things her own way. Poor lady. Um, of course, I will not be watching the remaining episodes as well. Talking of trading competitions, couldn't the same TV style format be created for the Traders Laboratory Forex Trading Contest? That'd make good TV! Interviews with the competitors, trading tips, a funky soundtrack, everyone could have their own catchphrase and nickname... 'Golden' Ingot, Obsidian 'The Rock', 'Magician' Mysticforex...

Thanks for the article. Of course, everyone will read it, I hope! But some bits I picked out:- So assuming those guys weren't lying or telling half-truths, it seems that they are not keen on TA. I thought this next bit was interesting too, DeMark is a TA who sees the world of trading as Fibonnachi numbers. Only $500 a month if you want to use his indicators, apparently. It has worked perfectly on Silver, which is great if you used it on Silver during the specified time period . (Just ignore the massive losses that may have occured in other markets.) As an experiment I just listened to that song 3 times and then I was ordered to turn it off (to be fair, I didn't want to listen to it again). It is a good song! However, I believe that listening to the same song (any song) for 11 hours straight might drive you mad, if you weren't mad already. Might be like autism of some kind?

(from The Guardian newspaper) UBS rogue trader Kweku Adoboli jailed over 'UK's biggest fraud' Junior City player, 32, sentenced to seven years after dispensing with hedging safety nets and racking up losses of over £1.5bn Link to The Guardian - Last phone call. Link to The Guardian - Sentenced to seven years.

"Risk is part of the game if you want to sit in that chair." (James Kirk, Star Trek: Generations)

What about 'Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds', written by Charles Mackay and first published a few years ago, in 1841. It's not literally about trading, but it is useful from the angle of the 'herd' and it is an interesting book. I would imagine that everyone would benefit from reading it. I love threads like this, I am always on the look out for new interesting books. Since a few years back (around the time I started looking into this trading game, as it happens) I have vastly increased my library of books, not just on trading but all sorts of subjects.

Imagine you spent your entire life flipping coins trying to get 100 heads in a row, millions of attempts... then one day you get on a roll, the heads start coming up and just don't stop! You're hot, the heads come up one after another... You get to the 99th and flip a head... You think to yourself 'this is it!' and you flip for the 100th time... and it comes up tails... Probably why Livermore shot himself

That's quite a big post for a simple answer but I enjoyed it all the same.

My cynical self voted for 'I don't think it matters who wins'. After all, they are funded by the same big corporations / institutions. I'm not in the US but it would be interesting to hear what you guys on the other side of the pond think about the forthcoming election.

So the way you view it is you're counter trend, but only on the current timeframe. On the longer timeframe you are following the trend. I don't use the higher timeframes as well as perhaps I should. I know there's another thread currently going on the topic of multiple time frames. When I started trading with real money I did various things, but mainly began by looking at mulitple time frames (having the 5 year chart open, and the 1 year chart). I have recently lapsed (lapsed? progressed? regressed?) into only reading the 3 month one (sometimes also viewing the 1 year) and not paying so much attention to longer term trends. I could improve on getting better entries by being more selective. I will think about it, as I am sure that I can pick them better. I do like the Paul Tudor Jones video

It makes you wonder how anyone can make money when you put it like that It's like we're up against The Terminator. By the way, thanks for mentioning Scott Paterson's "Dark Pools" - that's another book for my library

All this stuff about hamburgers and steak. Thankfully, I'm a vegetarian. (despite my avatar indicating otherwise!) Hello. My name's Perrin and I'm a counter-trend-trading-aholic. At least, I think I am. Sometimes I am. Sometimes going with the flow is the way to go. I guess it just depends on the situation as I read it in front of me. The way I do things at the moment is swing trading over days / weeks. Is everyone here unanimous in suggesting that trading against the trend is a bad idea? I'm sitting here with just over a year of live trading experience. On this thread TL members who I respect and have learnt from, are saying that trading against the current movement of the market is a bad idea. Am I going to blow up sometime by going against the crowd? I've been reading more about Niederhoffer and his blow ups. Sucess, sucess, sucess, sucess.... then boom, loses everything. Not that I'm all successes and peaches and cream (no steak of course). But I feel like consistant success is certainly possible. Regarding counter trend trading - surely it depends at which point you are at during the trend. If there's a point where price has got tired and is looking to reverse, and you 'know' it's going to reverse (ignoring for the moment how it is that you know), surely you want to go against the crowd. The crowd has sold all their stock (for example) and no one else is left to sell (no one else wants to sell), so the only way for price to go is up (well, or sideways. Or down if you're wrong!). Also price tends to go counter-trend quite rapidly. Sometimes.

Why, by now, do the 'general public' still believe in banks / tipsters / people in suits telling them that it is a good idea to buy a stock?? I wonder why 'Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds' isn't required reading in schools. Of course, it is so nice and much easier to have someone tell you what to do. So that you don't have to think for yourself (not 'you' Mitsubishi! but I mean people in general, I am quite aware that you think for yourself!). And how anyone who has been invovled in trading or the markets for more than 6 months can even consider believing a single word of any news release, is completely beyond me.

That was an interesting post and an interesting thought. The house always wins (with their commissions and taxes), as all they have to do is sit back and skim a little off every trade. Some day they will own everything and there'll be no one left. Or will there always be new customers / suckers to join in? Or is the pool of traders so large that it won't matter? It is a finite number of players with a finite amount of money though, so if the game is played long enough, the only winner is 'the house' and everyone else is broke? ((Unless... I make my money now quickly before everyone else goes bust! Quick, to the stock exchange, I must make some trades!))

If there were no close... then everyone would be trading naked...

Thank you I can now tell my gf that I am honestly working hard on improving my skills (I won't mention scores) on Traders Laboratory! "If I get another 50 points more I will become the pinball champion!" "What's that you say hun?" "Um, I said 'If I get another 50 points move I will become the profit champion!'" "That doesn't even make sense." "Um, nevermind I must get back to work." She will never know the truth! aAhahahahahaaaaa Back to work :missy:

I don't really know anything about Gann. I just thought that I would post after reading this thread. I am a bit confused. Just reading these few posts makes me a little scared to read any more on Gann as it looks incredibly alien to me. Can I ask, what use is a Gann square? What is it for? I initially thought it was one of those 'sudokou' puzzle things. Isn't trading amazing, with all the different ways there are of deciding whether to buy or sell. Sorry that I can't help in the slightest, but I wish you the best of luck.

Thank you. There is some really great information on Traders Laboratory. It all needs to be read, absorbed, filtered through your brain box and then tested & applied (in demo mode!). If only trading was as easy as just clicking 'buy' or 'sell'

Those quotes from that article:- “These customers are losing money in spectacular fashion.” “At FXCM, 75% to 77% of customers lost money each quarter last year” "At Gain... the number of unprofitable customers hovered between 72% and 79% every quarter last year" Those are impressive statements, aren't they? Especially as everyone who gets involved in trading thinks they'll be the ones to make a fortune. However 3 out of 4 people 'lost money in spectacular fashion'. 3 out of 4. And 75% are only the ones who lost money in all four quarters of the year – it doesn't mention the amount who maybe made money in 1 or 2 quarters, but still lost money overall. Or who even made money in 3 quarters and lost it all in the last quarter, or even those who are yet to blow up and lose everything. Although it might mean 'for any given quarter last year, 75% of people lost money during that quarter'? Either way, those are extremely bad odds. "Gain" (the company) "ended up making an average of $2,913 from every active trader it had last year, even though the average customer account contained only $3,000, according to the company's financial data." Very interesting article, thank you. I think every single person on TL should read it at least twice.

I can imagine being religious would be a great help, assuming that whenever a trader starts to pray his chosen deity responds by reversing the direction of a stock price.