Perrin

Hi Ingot, I'd say how's it going, but I read your post. So I assume it's not going quite according to plan. I'm doing alright - not making loads yet, but I kind of hope to. I know that I can do this. I know that I can make money doing this. I know that I can improve my life and the lives of others using the money which I can take from the markets. It's fun (when it goes right it is fun, when it goes wrong it's not so much fun... but I am getting better at seeing it all just as stuff that happens in my professional trading life (I am trying to think like a professional, act like a professional, be a professional)). As you say though, it's hard, perhaps impossible, to begin from a position of not much capital. Also, if it turns out that you don't really enjoy trading, then perhaps it's not for you anyway - turn your talents towards something more rewarding to you. Everyone's different, apparently. The way I've been doing trading recently is to try and think what other people would do in the situations, and trade contrary to them - at the right time (which seems to be easier said than done). I think that it might be that everyone needs to find their own way because while we're all wired similarly, my ideas and thoughts and make-up might be different to you. I don't really know what I'm talking about, and there are much smarter people than I on TL. But I figured that Db Phoenix seems to know a lot so I read most of the stuff he's written, along with Wyckoff and Humphrey B Neill, and people like that. Tape reading without indicators. Trading based on the behaviour of other traders. Note that any errors or losses are entirely my own, those guys I mentioned and others like them who I have learnt from and who helped me think about trading are just really helpful interesting people. I have sole responsibility for everything that I do (good and bad). But I have to tip my hat to people like that for opening my eyes to different ways of looking at trading & life. I don't want to encourage you to do that as it might just be another rabbit-hole, because I'm not totally sure that I can do it consistently myself, yet. I have had some success, but I'm not sure when I can say that I'm a fully licenced and accredited trader with a degree from the trading school of life. Perhaps another couple of years. Perhaps it's an ongoing thing that I'll have to work at forever - but I imagine that once I get very good, everything should work smoothly without too much effort (kind of like being good at any job, or riding a bike over rough terrain - I get a feel for how the bike will react to different circumstances and I react without thinking about it when something unexpected happens. I do understand that it is possible to lose accounts and I try to stick to my ideas and not to risk too much - although I have just put on a big position the other day because I got overconfident about being able to anticipate / predict the market. Which is perhaps a silly thing to do - when I take too large a position and instead of losing £200 I lose £1000 then my judgement and thinking is clouded and I may start feeling down. A euphoric feeling that I had last week probably contributed to me taking on too large a position. At least I now know what euphoria feels like! So next time I get that feeling (I hope I will!) I hope I will be able to recognise what I am doing, and try to trade accordingly (perhaps I will write a note to tell me what to do in such a circumstance, so I don't act in a manner which gets me into trouble). Just some thoughts there from me. I'm still working doing another job (self employed) and it's hard to juggle that with trading and everything else that I have to do. But being busy is fun. I've got lots of interesting books on lots of subjects which I want to read. How am I going to get the time to read them! I keep buying books on all sorts of strange subjects And lots of other things to do. I should be doing other things now, so I'll leave you in peace and get on with it. Whatever you decide to do, enjoy yourself Perrin

I think that if someone has focus they have a chance to get good at trading. If they know their own weaknesses and strengths they have an opportunity. But as you say, people have to want to help themselves get there. I still find it hard to believe that most people cannot see the wood for the trees. I really would like to get better at this. I have learnt a huge amount from you Db. If one reads through all your posts with a willingness to learn and think, and to help others - posting about your own trades is a good start and, I guess above all, being honest - then I'm sure that anyone can become whatever they want to. Regarding 20 years later Db, I don't know because I've not been trading that long. Surely it cannot have gotten worse, though? I imagine that the people at the top of the tree are similar, just different faces perhaps.

Henry Ford was an incredible man, his plain common sense approach is an example to everyone.

I am impressed Hey my message is too short! Now it's not.

The US needs to be more equal to get out of the recession, I imagine

If he rose and fell, he could rise again.

Oh, Presidents Day is George Washington's birthday? Happy Birthday, George! Um, sorry I was a bit late but I only just found out. Better late than never though, eh.

One person's sense, if seen from another completely different viewpoint, is non-sense. And if one acts completely out of kilter with the beliefs of others then they won't have the faintest clue what you're on about and they will probably ridicule you, or ignore you, or stone you to death, or whatever. Ok I'm getting there slowly. Fun this, ain't it? Maybe I should create my own journal thread, I'm not sure I should be saying this stuff here where there is serious trading to be discussed. Ok I'll do that later. Apologies for any intrusion, just ignore me. *Trader finding himself, nothing to see here, move along now ladies and gentlemen.* Wow this is so cool. Ok ok I also realise that I probably need to be careful & sensible about this. But my god, this could be fun.

We are all whatever we want to be. Not many people seem to say goodbye. It's nice when they do. If they're a master and say that they're leaving because they don't want to be here anymore, then that's nice because at least we don't find ourselves wondering what happened to them. Sometimes they leave for another board and we can go to that new board to see them. When we do that it's like meeting an old friend. If they're a novice and have decided that trading is not for them, then it's nice if they say goodbye because we can then wish them all the very best, in the hope that they leave trading to go on to do something that makes them happy.

Surely trading by size would come automatically if one were successful - if he masters himself and is consistently successful on all his trades (whatever his definition of success is). How could it not? If someone masters himself then they are whatever they want to be. Surely everyone has the potential to be anything they want to be. People gravitate towards success even if they don't completely understand why they do so, don't they?. It's gravity. I gravitate towards you Db because you are an incredibly bright shining light. Hmm, gravity. That's related to mass & size isn't it. "Size doesn't matter," or so my girlfriend tells me. She is much more intelligent (not to mention tactful) than I am so I'll have to rely on her judgement there. If a person had mastery then they would find a way to fill their position with whatever size they could handle. But one would need to be absolutely sure that they were doing the right thing at all times in everything they do - and I guess what you mean is that not many people can do that? To have awareness of what they & others will do in any given circumstance? To know where they want to be and what they want to be. Most people don't know, do they? They are just there. They just... They're just themselves (the majority are average?). Which is fine, nothing wrong with that. They are who they want to be. Um, what do I want to be? Oh right, ok. I remember. I'd better continue the journey. Long road, this. Interesting though. Hang on, another thought... but... if you can't have mastery, is there any point in even trying?? Do or do not...?? So why am I here? "It is your destiny" Ohhhhh great. So I have me to thank for this. Well thanks, me. You're welcome. Cheers. Sometimes I write things and then delete them because they don't make a great deal of sense if I come back to them later, or even on re-reading. Sometimes I do wonder about myself. Please someone delete this post if it will not be helpful to others, thank you. Kind of reminds me of Mission Impossible's 'this message will self destruct in 5 seconds...' I'll keep it in my own journal anyway because it kind of makes sense to me. My apologies for confusing anyone (or myself) if I read it again in the future (as opposed to the past) and it makes even less sense. Saying that, Mitsubishi also talks a lot of perceived nonsense so at least I'm in good company

Knowledge and awareness? A trader needs knowledge and awareness of others, himself and his profession, I think

I could write loads but I have to get some other work done - tidying up - I'm trying to make my life and myself a bit more organised (so that's lucky escape for anyone who doesn't have a day to spend reading one of my longer posts). Regarding the plan - I used to have plans set in stone, which worked ok, but I've kind of moved into just doing what i want, when I think it's a good idea. I'm still kind of following the set-in-stone plans (which is something like a buy on retracement or crash, that kind of thing, but it depends on the other price action - sometimes I wouldn't buy on a retracement or crash because I've seen that the trade works better certain times rather than other times. If the trade doesn't work, I can always exit.) I think I've just kind of internalised a lot of information and I will be the system, rather than my system being the system, if that makes any sense. Which is not something I'd recommend to anyone. I really don't quite know how to articulate what I'm doing. Why 4th Feb...? Basically, there was a sell off a few weeks previous, and then another sell off which pretty much made everyone go "arghh." So then when everyone was just standing there wondering what just happened, I approached and said "hello", and enquired why the sad faces? I sympathised with the stunned trader's story and said to him "look, how about I offer you 1610", which I thought was a fairly reasonable price at the time. He accepted, so here we are. It was the right entry for me. Probability of success - umm, I have no idea, I haven't calculated it (I probably should). It was quite high for me, I imagine. Not very high for the bloke I bought the stock off, unfortunately. But he'll learn from it and then he'll come back and beat me and take my money next time, which is great because it'll keep me on my toes and stop this game from ever getting boring.

It will be interesting to see if vendors can adapt to the new environment and if they can avoid self-promotion (since MMS has stated that products are not to be promoted in discussions). Can vendors adapt and become civilised valuable members of TL who offer help and trading wisdom, in the knowledge that in working hard, being honest & helping others they help themselves, and they need no other reward. Just imagine how amazing that would be. Did anyone see the film Daybreakers? The world was populated by vampires milking humans for their blood, and somehow the hero found a way to turn vampires back into humans. There is always hope

Regarding the turtles, I watched a youtube video on one of them giving a lecture. No offence meant to the guy but while he was giving the lecture and talking to the audience (who were all there to learn how to trade from one of the 'legendary turtles'), he didn't strike me as all that bright. Certainly nothing special. It got me thinking that perhaps the reason for his making money using the strategy, was that he has more of a 'follower' type personality (if there is such a thing). He was able to take the information given to him from his superiors and do it, and keep doing it, and didn't question authority even when things went wrong (like in the Milgram experiment). Maybe that's why 'average' people are supposed to do ok at trading – they keep doing something that works. Although... if they're average, how would they go about figuring out what works in the first place? You have to be a bit different, otherwise you'll be the same as everyone else – which would mean you're in the majority. Which is the right place to be at some times, and is disastrous at other times. Also, if they're average, what happens when the markets change, how do they figure out that the markets are different and that it may be time to adapt their strategy? Maybe that's why he's now giving lectures. Who knows. I think you need intelligence to figure out what works for you, you need to be able to admit when you're wrong (be humble), while being able to carry on in the face of adversity, having confidence in yourself (or system) that if things go wrong you can always change or adapt. Perhaps you need to be a follower, but a follower of yourself.

I don't know much about oil and futures but I will try to learn a bit more and open a futures account. I know I need to - I want to know a bit about what you guys are talking about I'm swing trading atm so I'm not regularly online at those times. When you say 9 - 12, what time zone are we talking about? (wouldn't life be easier if everyone lived in the same place?) Just checked the link - ah cool that chat client thing is pretty easy & straightforward.

27th Feb 2013 AGK – Aggreko (UK Stock) Swing trading (with a bit of not-selling-at-the-right-time thrown in for good measure) Mainly written around midday today, with edits in the evening. Someone will have to tell me if this isn't what I'm supposed to be writing in this section of TL. I would copy & paste my earlier AGK thinking & journal from the past few weeks, but unfortunately the internet does not have enough hard drive space to store all the words, so I'd better just stick to today's entry. [N.B. I have edited this journal entry to remove my 3000 word novel (I exaggerate only slightly) on philosophy, psychology and me, leaving just the bare bones of my AGK's trade thinking today as it currently stands. Actually it's hardly bare bones. It's more like a giant huge fat thought process, which I probably do need to slim down. Sorry about that. I will attempt to diet my thinking (or at least my attempted explanation of it) soon.] I am currently in AGK. Price is at 1666. I find myself thinking this is when it goes up again. Or maybe I'm just over excited (I get like that sometimes when I think I'm in this zone place, I'm feeling good and I start babbling on). It could be that my vision is being skewed by emotion – though I don't think so – although at least I am aware that is a possibility. Maybe I shouldn't be trading when I'm thinking a lot... In AGK now, people start thinking “hang on, this thing has stopped its decline.” Not many are selling. I think this is a place to buy in (but then I did think this the other day too, hmm I do need to be careful). But then, if other people are thinking "I need to be careful" and are awaiting confirmation, then perhaps price really has fallen as far as it will and the majority of traders coming in now will be those buying the stock up. So if people are thinking price will reach as low as 1625. But it only reached 1650 and has rallied to 1670 then is jigging around 1660 ish. If price doesn't fall that low (i.e. if it can't reach 1625) then there is strength there and when others start to realise that, then the movement starts upwards again, perhaps stronger this time as traders gain confidence. People (when I say people, I mean me) originally thought that price would stop the retracement of the last few days at 1680 but it carried on through. Long term (3 months & 1 year chart) the price is downwards although it's a turning point around now, and will go up more soon, I feel. I know that I should have sold at 1740 (I knew I probably should at the time – price was hitting resistance, I could have banked profits), but that's ok, at least I knew at the time that was a potential turning point and a place to exit perhaps and re-assess. I can be wrong and learn from it. I need a bit more experience before I can start being good at this. I assume it'll go up now. Unless I'm wrong... but it's in an uptrend long term on the 5 years timescale. 1 year timescale is down but it can't go down much more can it? (heh, that's what you think Perrin!) … If people refuse to buy perhaps, I suppose then it could carry on down. But I doubt it will do that. I feel that I should be playing the trends within the trends - trying to take bites on my chosen timeframe. I missed closing this one out at 1740 - I kind of knew that I should sell there, but I didn't. That was resistance and price tried to get through and couldn't, so retraced. Price hasn't retraced too far though (yet). So if price can run back up to 1740 now, I'm more hopeful that it will get through on a re-test. At least knowing that perhaps I should have sold there is good. Doing it time after time is the hard part, I guess. But it should become less hard the more I do it. I thought it might go through resistance there (and I'm sure that it will, sometime), so I didn't sell - I waited instead. After it stalled, I could (should? - In hindsight yes) have sold there, taken a fresh look at what was happening with the movement and then re-bought if the action deemed it a good idea (if I sold at 1740 or 1730, I could have re-bought on the other side of resistance, perhaps, if the price had cut up through resistance without much bother). Am I supposed to say where I bought? Ok, ok, 1610 on the 4th February. Yes price went down after I bought it but it was within acceptable levels (just). However, price had to go up, look at the chart, it didn't have much choice did it. I could have bought at a better place, however my entry wasn't terrible. It wasn't perfect though and I'm not entirely sure how I become a trader who consistently buys at a near perfect entry point (for example where price rises as soon as I've bought and it doesn't look back), but I shall persevere. I know some people may say "Bad Perrin, should have sold at 1740!" and indeedy, I agree. Long term, it's going up though. Unless it doesn't, in which case, fair enough. I will laugh (in a sad, ironic way) if tomorrow this comes back down on me. That 1600 level does look like it is calling out to the price though, doesn't it? I am slightly concerned that price might have one more downward punch to throw before it goes up (e.g. it might climb to 1700 and then those who bought at that (small?) resistance level might throw their stock out quick. But we'll see. If it does go down I cannot see it going past 1600. It is slightly frustrating looking and knowing that I could have sold 1740. If I were the younger version of me I would have sold at 1650 / 1660 in frustration. Perhaps the current version of me will sell out at 1625 in frustration! Perhaps the best option would have been to have bought 1610, sold 1740. Then bought back at 1660 (or even 1625 if it does get down there), or perhaps after selling just left it alone and gone to a different stock. Actually I've just rechecked the charts and realised that one of the other reasons for getting in was that I thought price may get back up to 2100+ at some point. Ah, predictions. I get these so spectacularly wrong sometimes. We shall see. By the way, if anyone's managed to read all the way to the bottom of this and has seen anything wrong with my thinking, please let me know. Thank you! 5 year chart: 1 year chart: 3 month chart: 5 day chart:

Does anyone know what hobbies Wyckoff had? Did he ever get bored of trading? What was his library like (outside of trading books)?

Yes, I think I was talking about the old normal becoming the older normal and the now normal becoming the old normal. And we need to be thinking about the future normal before it actually becomes the normal. I still can't quite believe that Bruce Lee video with the ping pong and nun-chucks is real. But whether it is, it's along those lines, isn't it? I might be complicating things too much And what I'm rambling on about here is possibly not Auction Market Theory. However, it is interesting to think through things, even if I can't quite put into words what on earth I'm thinking about. I think what you're saying is we don't need the whole cycle to be traders, just part of the cycle. I think the same - see something happening and understand why it's happening and what is likely to occur, buy at X, price goes up, Sell at Y, then it doesn't matter what happens afterwards.

Those new cycles created by Greenspan and Bernanke should have been predictable too? Once something is regular and predictable then everyone knows what will happen next. Then everyone anticipates it and at some point something else happens instead due to everyone knowing what the outcome is going to be (or WAS going to be, because the outcome changes because everyone's anticipating it). Then it takes everyone a while to adapt to the new cycle. And then once everyone is comfortable with the new cycle...

26th February 2013 Thinking about cycles. (This is just me thinking today in my lunchtime journal rambling. I wasn't sure where to put it so I've put it here. I thought I'd post it to see if anyone had any ideas if my thinking is on the right track, or where it falls down). Imagine a man was running a little business and everything was going well, he'd built up the business, work was steady, the economy was buoyant. It was hard work, but nothing that he couldn't handle. He tried to avoid debt as much as possible. Things seemed to be on the up, so he started looking at investing in the business more - perhaps to buy some machinery or take on some staff. Perhaps that is a time to be extra careful because that's the time when he might let his guard down. Normally he is very conservative with his money - after all he's worked damn hard to get it. But everything looks rosy and all around him people are doing well, or even better than he is. It seems almost too easy for other people to make money - he finds himself feeling jealous when he sees many other people driving brand new cars and having lots of holidays, but perhaps he's not that bothered about what other people do so he doesn't follow them quite that much. Maybe he buys the shiny new machinery and takes on extra staff. Perhaps he might then get more work and be sitting there pleased with himself (perhaps he might take on some debt - but the repayments might be small in comparison to income, so nothing to worry about...). But perhaps some time after, some of his customers get over-extended and banks (for example) start calling in loans that are never going to be repaid... that starts having a knock on effect and then things start to wobble... Then they steady, and things look ok (back to normal phase?)... "Whew that was close, our amount of work dropped but then it picked up again. Things seem ok now." Perhaps even more work comes in. But some businesses have been burnt already by a few bad customers and are starting to wake up and think and understand that perhaps the work that they do may not be paid for. So they start introducing new terms & conditions that they didn't do during the boom times (e.g. they used to offer 30 days payment terms, now it's pre-payment). Also competitors start to factor more into the equation. Competitors start dropping prices, chasing a decreasing volume of work. More work is required to produce the same amount of income. Interesting where this all leads and how one thing has "unexpected" effects on others. How can cycles be unexpected to everyone (or even to anyone?) Are they really unexpected? I'm an average person, there must be a lot of people more intelligent than I am who already know all this stuff (assuming I'm right with my thinking)? I think my thinking is right... I'm not sure. More thinking needed! Where does everything lead to? And everything is cycles within cycles isn't it? How can anyone ever hope to understand everything? Imagine understanding everything, wouldn't that be really cool?

A couple of thoughts - 1) If I hadn't have thought what I did and wrote what I did, then you couldn't have responded as you did, and I would still be the same trader as I was yesterday (I still might be if I don't think about what you said and learn from it). 2) I'm trading against people like you in the stockmarket. That thought alone should make me run for the hills and hang up my trading boots I can't do that though, this is too interesting (I'm reluctant to use the word fun... but... well, it is kinda fun)

(I'm currently trading UK stocks but I want to start looking into futures, so here I go.) My thoughts on what you said are as follows: Is it that the channel lines start creeping closer together because there are less traders coming in who are willing to buy stock at the higher prices, so price is starting to struggle to get higher on successive upswings. This is indicating that a change of direction may be coming. Generally at this point most people who wanted to buy have bought, and if there are no more buyers coming in to the market, then the likely direction is back down. If the price is just drifting sideways for example, perhaps at some point those holding stock may get spooked and start selling (which could start as a small amount then more and more as the new (perhaps temporary) downtrend snowballs). I guess that if price does start to fall then it may gather momentum until a point is reached where less people are selling (or more buying comes in) and that's when the price falls will slow / stop / reverse and price might go back up again. I don't suppose this is very hard to explain if a trader is really good at it, or has years of experience. I'm not very good at explaining what I'm thinking/seeing. Also one of my problems that I know of is getting in too soon (I sometimes find myself buying too early on the expectation of a trend change). So I am thinking “short” but perhaps I should be thinking “uptrend” until proven otherwise. Sorry if the above didn't make that much sense but please tell me if you think I'm wrong (although that's what the market is for, I suppose). I guess we should look at the 1460, but more likely the 1400 level to see what happens there (price should go back up if the uptrend is still strong?) If it goes below 1400 then that certainly should indicate something might be amiss. The 1350ish level (the 10% retracement) may also be support but if price gets there then the channel is broken and that might be a sign that less people have been willing to buy at those prices which also indicates weakness. I have huge respect for people like Db and those who are good at this who can explain it and break it down to a level that people understand. This has taken me hours. It is really complex, but Db (for example) is incredible at simplifying things that seem complicated. I'm not even sure I'm right, and it's scary to post stuff when I'm not totally sure what I'm talking about. (Come on Perrin, grow up, focus. Post this. If you're wrong you get better just by trying.) A thought... what if price comes back to the 1460 level, rallies one last time (hard) up, breaks the uptrending line on the upside, spikes past the current high (a last push upwards), and then falls back & starts going into a downtrend. Is that a possibility? Hang on... Just thinking about that... How many different things could happen?! How am I supposed to put everything that I think could happen into a post? What if price just kept rallying off 1450 for example, up, up, all the way up to the dotted trendline that Db has indicated on his chart? That would create an even bigger, longer term channel then, possibly indicating more strength longer term? I started writing this today at lunchtime (I just checked the clock, it's gone midnight so in fact it was yesterday) I continued trying to refine it in the evening (and found myself adding more to it - I removed some references to places where I would buy & sell as maybe I shouldn't be thinking too much of buying & selling until I know how price will move at given moments. If I somehow manage to get the theory right then the buying & selling places will come naturally (hopefully))

And be sure to keep a trading journal

Oh thanks for singling me out! I feel like I have been told to stand up in front of the class to show off my homework. Ok, well... I'm not sure quite what to say on auction market theory. And I'm not that good yet at explaining myself and what I'm trying to do. And I'm new with only a year or so of live experience. Also I'm not sure I'm exactly Wyckoff in nature because I have read an awful lot of different stuff, although I think I'm close. And I write a lot (most of which shall never be published!) I might ramble a lot, so apologies in advance. I've been meaning to properly post in the Wyckoff section for a while, but I've been putting it off because, uh, well I think because it makes the most sense to me and there's no hiding in here from the reality of how the markets move, who/what moves them, etc. However, getting challenged (or having people say “Perrin you tit, your chart is upside down and you don't know your auction from your elbow”) may improve me. And of course hob-nobbing with intelligent traders may mean their intelligence rubs off on me a bit. At the very least, other people might think I'm intelligent too just by association (“Did you hear about Perrin? He's been spending time in the Wyckoff section with intelligent traders, he must be intelligent too”), so this is a win-win scenario. So... hmm, what can I say. The journal. Recent developments in Perrinland – using a trading journal and recording my thoughts, feelings, emotions, ideas, etc. "Keep a journal" the seasoned wise traders have always said. "Hmm, nah, I'll just keep profit/loss records and some notes on my charts - I don't think I need a journal" says Perrin to himself, for the first year of his live trading experience. Now, I do believe that I could do this without writing a journal (that may be misplaced confidence but I don't think it is). However I realise now how useful a journal is. I started writing one in December 2012 while running some trades. Obviously I have always kept records, and brief notes on my charts (everyone does, right?) But writing down thoughts and emotions while trading has been revealing. It's a very powerful tool, a journal. I think writing helps the thought process. Well, I was of course wrong to not start a journal earlier. Although perhaps I wasn't quite ready to do it properly until recently. It's really given some great insights into my behaviour and that of other traders. I think I was on the right track (I found myself having successes) before I started writing a journal. However I think the journal has brought things into perspective more. I flow a bit more now, I think. Things are a bit easier. Less unexpected things have happened (ok that's famous last words!). I feel it's aided me in reading the charts. I'm more calm and less worried about what will happen. Instead of perhaps panicing and selling at the bottom I try to think along the lines of "oh, wow look at that drop, this is where I would panic", for example. Or another time was where I was watching a stock where a flashy news announcement signalled that the stock was the best stock in the whole world and there was nothing better, and I thought "no guys, don't buy in now, not on that news, look at the prior run-up and fast up-move, it's going to sucker you in and chew you up..." (people bought in, everyone who wanted to buy has bought, there was no one left to buy, so price had little choice but to head downwards.) Also I have thoughts like "Imagine being the poor guy who bought right at the top" and then I literally imagine that. I'm not sure if this is auction market theory or just a jumble of Perrin thinking. It's interesting though. I might post one of my journal entries sometime. But that's quite a scary thing to do. And then you'd all get inside my head, and it's crowded enough in there already. Plus I have the fear that I might explain myself so well that everyone will know what I do (or am trying to do) so that my best laid plans to become a trillionaire are thwarted by everyone knowing my secrets (quite what secrets, I'm not exactly sure, but I guess it's just the feeling of how the markets move, so quite how I explain that, I'm not sure.). I think this is a normal (irrational, apparently?) fear, but that's where I currently am. One thing I would say (and I know I shouldn't make long posts because they put people off) but in the real-world (for want of a better word) auction in the auction rooms that I went to, seeing some of the professional buyers bidding was very interesting. They seemed to know how much to bid, they knew not to overbid – if price was too high, just sit back and wait for another opportunity on another item. They know what items will sell elsewhere (later) for more money. They know what things might look shiny & pretty but may not be easy or very profitable to sell, and are best avoided. I imagine that they have years of experience and knowledge of the auction process, and the markets they trade (e.g. some guys were there to buy large furniture items, others to buy figurines. There was one lady there who bought just maps and old books that no one else seemed interested in. She could see some value there where no one else could.)