ecubru

Fair enough. In order to conclude the last discussion and try to move on: 1. I also like the intellectual and theoretical discussion so I agree with you 2. I didn' use any timeframe and a lookback period for the charts. I didn't cherry pick the charts I use YOUR example and could have chosen at least 140 other indicators with the +/- the same results. 3. I was using the stochastic as an example just to generate the real discussion because it stuck me when I saw that the Inteligent and Predictive agents charts seemed to be less INTELLIGENT AND PREDICTIVE than a basic canned indicator. 4. I also 100% prefer not to argue about intensity versus a stochastic. But i do wanted to discuss the usefulness if any of the "Inteligent and Predictive agents" In the context of the OP. So i leave still the questions open. What are the main difference/benefits/shortcomings (not in the way is calculated...) in performance using or reading this "intensity indicator" over any other indicator. Is it just a lot of mumbojumbo to make it things more complicate than they are? Please don't get personal but get technical. At least for small trader like me, trading is a dynamic process that need to keep the edge often according to market circumstance. so I am interesting in intelligent ideas that can lead to something constructive so I am not interesting in my indicator is better than yours or if you make money with this or that. I am simply challenging the basic assumptions and the real reasons behind this indicator. If you have good arguments please use them otherwise... ecubru So lets do discuss INTELLIGENT AND PREDICTIVE discussion

LOL.... Without wanting to start a fruitless discussion. That's exactly my point...what do you gain in practice with that information. "Yes soon will turn around to the short side" so what? by then even if you blindly and naively trade any stochastic signal you will have not only take the long (your "short" alarm) but also catch the perfect entry on the reversal short (the trade short you suppose to take after your alarm). My point is that you are trying to catch a big fish with a small boat based on apparently "rational and logical" assumptions that big players do this or that. In other words it seem to me that this "early" or sometimes not early, as somebody mentioned before, warning signals you are talking about are completely dislocating from practice and common sense. If you are going to use such a small timeframe you get better bang for buck if you trade a very basic stochastic (btw, this is a shame for any "new" trading indicator to perform worst and give less info than a simple stochastic). Obviously if you want to catch a larger swing (as apparently you do) and if you use common sense you just use a longer timeframe. Same day, with the same very basic stochastic but using a longer timeframe. I guess that was the short you wanted to take from your tiny micro chart... ecubru

IMHO,the logic behind this "trade intensity" is not necessarily flawed, but what it is flawed is the way is being use. If you are small trader, it's not important why or who, the key issue is WHEN. Over focusing in the reasons and the assumptions will only delay the process of understanding that you CANT tame the market. The only thing you can aim is to reduce risk and increase odds. The rest is a game you CANT play without Real Capital. Information, Direct Access to Markets and advanced technology (in terms of execution and algos). I find very interesting all this academic discussion and I am not against all this nice theoretical assumptions but again in practice the use of "trade" intensity" indicator is as good or bad (i will dare to say worst) than using a very basic slow stochastic on overbought/sold areas, especially if you are going to aim for 1or 2 points (you don't even need volume for that, the noise will be enough). At least the latter apart from theoretically give you "exhaustion" areas can also give you a trigger... At end the key if you are going to introduce an indicator (regardless of how sound are the assumption behind it) it has at least have to give you something "new" than can be translated in practice in real improvements on your trades ...again its WHEN not why or who. Same chart with your same areas with a basic stochastic... ecubru

Good post and I read your reply and links in detail. However, and without wanting to have a long academic discussion, as in any theory, what is the relevance in justifying your assumptions with all this very interesting and well detailed technical models (seven different time frames, index of weighted biases, intelligent agents that range from genetically optimized neural networks, functions producted by MARS [Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines] and CART, etc) if the exactly same results can be achieved using simply tools. IMO, I am more interested in the results of a system rather than if the assumptions are technically sound (which can sound stupid in academic terms but not when you are a trader). In other words, and going back to the chart I post, a modified MACD with MAs with dynamical adjusted ATR levels (dots) in a constant volume chart for stops and profits show 100% the same results as a model with all these complex technical interrelations. I am not implying that the chart i posted or your system is good or bad, I only have this aftertaste: 1. if either all these technical explanations are just a way to rationalize the assumptions on your system 2. or maybe they are not useful at all (because they show the same results of basic TA indicators) 3. or maybe they are not taking advantage of their potential 4. or maybe you are 100% right and you are just defined and analyzing the key reasons behind price analysis. I may overseeing something in your charts but whatever the case, as long as they show the same results as a simple system, they are only relevant from a theoretical perspective because in practice the result seems to be the same as when using a simpler system. ecubru

Urma Your ideas look very impressive at first glance. However, and don't get me wrong, to what extend you are just trying to look for rational justification for taking trades. Commercial buying, retail, whatever. You are just trading simple MA crossover with an "oscillator" as a filter. If your oscillator includes volume or not seems to be irrelevant in your charts because both indicators in your bottom panel will show the exact same divergences than the original price chart. In addition your TPT intensity indicator its as random or good as the very old Elders Ray indicator. In other words, every time you have a new swing you will have some peeks or valleys and when the move is overextended it will overshoot in large spikes (nothing different than a smooth stochastic in oversold/overbought will show) . i don't have a clue on how to program or setup your indicators but in 10 mins and using the most traditional indicators (MA and MACD) and with a little common sense i have exactly your same charts with exactly the same results.... and yes the reversal on your 05/21 charts was clear without any volume or big comercial retail, etc info available.... I think a picture will be worth more than thousand words in this post... ecu