TheNegotiator

Sorry Steve, I must have missed something, but I don't quite understand the relevance of mentioning your students. As for using supply and demand, I think that it will always for a solid basis for many different systems. The systems themselves will change though. The idea of weekly/monthly/quarterly/yearly targets is also likely to remain unless the way funds and money managers and their clients change the way they do their business. These are imo two facets which have and will always have importance.

starborg9, I don't know whether many highly successful traders only have 1 or 2 strategies. I guess it depends how flexible the approach is and whether those strategies give multiple entry types or not.

They are definitely some great ones too MMS. I was hoping to discuss some older strategies and how they have faired given changing market environments. I think it's a useful exercise to better understand fundamental strengths in strategies and their frailties so that we may adapt our own more quickly and effectively. Anyone who has used a great strategy in the past but dropped or changed it or even uses it just as they always have is welcome to pitch in as well. Whether it's has been on the TL forums or not.

This is a question to which the answer is variable. It is however, an important question for anyone who hasn't 'made it' already(and to some who haven't really made it but think they have ). I think that many have the idea that if they trade for several years, they will become 'experienced'. Some have done this and may actually believe they are 'experience'. But what the bottom line reads is the important qualifying factor here. The proportion of this time which is truly dedicated to understanding the market process and your strategy imho is a far better yard stick of experience. I challenge any trader to sit back and make an honest assessment of the effort they put into their practise of the trading discipline(live or sim). Let me attempt to illustrate my point in another way. You are about to take a flight and you are allowed to choose your pilot. Pilot A has flying in his blood. He has never actually flown a plane before, but he has for the past 10 years sat next to his Father in the cockpit on every flight which is every day. Pilot B has never actually flown either. He has accrued over 1000 hours in a state of the art simulator, 500 hours of which were under expert instruction. Well you HAVE to take the flight. Lol. I think the choice is clear. So when if you haven't got a high degree of real experience, what can you do? There's only one session you can realistically trade per day right? Well, you concentrate for a start. You can prepare for what you think you may see and watch for what you do see. You can try to understand the way the market is functioning at the moment and how your trading strategy or style fits in with that. You can replay the market either by reviewing your chart or with many platforms you can now do a market replay at whatever speed you wish to. You can analyse your performance using all sorts of useful metrics. Profitability comes from understanding comes from experience comes from dedication. Not necessarily from screen time.

I have to say fading extremes would be my best bet if I were to trade it and then scale out of a good chunk pretty quickly. Going with it can be a strong urge but can be dangerous too. Maybe I'll look at implementing a plan for the future. If I do though, I think I'd open a separate account to ring fence the risk.

EU Summit fun day today! I can't pretend I'm likely to be trading this as I would normally if at all. Take a look at the thread I just started for ideas why Crunch Point Trading Anyway, what I am looking out for is what the auction does, where/if it fails and what the strength of any moves are.(oh and of course what the outcome of the summit is :o) I'm kinda expecting for information to come through to some extent throughout the day with some major announcement later on. Not certain though. Anyway, the chart today I wanted to outline the major points it could test if there are some big moves. Bear in mind that we've seen some pretty big ranges in the last few months, with the biggest coming on 9th August with whopping 78.50point range! There have been quite a few 40-50 point ranges in between too. Right now we're at 1232.00 but I'd also like to see what the open is. So we could look at targets 25/50/75 points away. I'm not saying these targets will be met but often on strong moves after these sorts of events, there is an overall market price goal.

Con. If you are trading and your connection goes down, you could end up way offside before it comes back online(or can get through to your broker's trading desk). :puke:

For me, I am more than happy to trade in the days leading up to the release. Depending on the market behaviour I may end up taking smaller profits per trade. After the release, I am far more comfortable trying to understand what is going on. My rationale is that if a release is going to carry forward a big significance, it's better for me to understand what is happening at the time so I can better trade the coming days than risk getting involved in an emotional rollercoaster. I believe that even if you manage to take 4 times what you'd make on a reasonable day, it's about what you do over 100, 200, 500, 1000 days and one great day means nothing in the long run. Actually that does remind me that a potential consequence of having a belting day is over-confidence. That's a very dangerous thing for most traders even if the p/l is looking sweet!! Anyone else have a different take or strategy for these sorts of days? I know some guys make a living off trading solely in this type of market.

With the shenanigans going on in the EU summit today, I thought it pertinent to discuss trading before, but more importantly after highly anticipated news, economic releases or speeches. To qualify this I am talking about things which you can sense have the potential to be really big in the days leading up to the event. Here are a few ideas off the top of my head. Pros. Before the release, there is often book balancing and is often fairly predictable in its manner. After the release the market can really move. Important price objectives can be met and important extremities formed. Less noise and more market flow. Cons. Before it can sometimes be that the market is just flat. If the release gets leaked early, you can be caught with you pants down. Strong initial reactions to a release can frequently end up the wrong move to follow. You can get in and be stopped before you're right. Greed can be a problem. Some considerations if you do want to trade it. Do you trade it normally or would you adjust your strategy? If you vary your size how would you do so? What is the basis for your assessment of risk and therefore you stop placement? Do you trade momentum, breakout, failed breakouts, fade important levels? Do you need a good/fast news source?

To answer the question, planning and discipline. I can see some issues with the strategy you mention. Firstly, you need a quick connection. If the market is moving fast and you only are looking for small profits, if you are seeing a lagged market you'll either not get a fill using limit order(unless you don't want one) or using market orders you'll be in at a very different price (and momentum) to where you'd made the decision in your mind. Secondly, there is the chance that you read a big move as strong momentum. If that happens, you might get in at the extremity of the move just as a strong reversal happens. It's like Siuya says. It's effectively HFT. I used to do it but it is stressful and the competition is just way faster than I am these days(competition = largely computers located next to the exchange).

Thought I'd have a go at the questionnaire. Here's my result! You are a Facilitative Trader You are decisive, orderly and able to do things sequentially. You like to be given information in a straightforward and methodical manner. You are imaginative and like to create and write about new possibilities. You strive for variety and new challenges and put the needs of people before rules. One of Your Trading Strengths - You bring energy, creativity and a willingness to explore new ideas to system development and trading. One of Your Trading Challenges - You may have a need for external confirmation of your ideas, systems and beliefs to the detriment of developing your own system.

Just amazes me how frequently a strong move retrace is good for fading at the 78.6% fibonacci.

Wow, that open really shows you what the market is fixated on right now! (Europe)

Not much new to offer early on today. Some less positive news for stocks and waiting on news from Europe tomorrow could see ES check itself or perhaps just rest. Of course given that it's still out of balance it could push up some more- plenty of targets still marked up on the chart for that. So I'll be watching for signs of checking(pullback)/resting/continuation today.

Here's the thread for Risk of Ruin for anyone interested:- RoR

It's actually quite interesting that most people are aware of money management and the idea of only risking 1-3% of their starting capital, yet they don't try especially hard to incorporate it thoroughly into their trading until they have a bad patch. The suggestion I would have to make is that a new trader should open a small account early on. Learn and formulate a strategy you can then become comfortable with on a good simulator(or at the very least in a live market where the size is extremely small). Once you have a the experience and a strategy, work out what your capital should be based on the strategy. Many do everything the wrong way round. They have some cash saved up as they want to trade, lump it into an account and then start trading. Not such a great plan in many cases if you were to break down the risk they were taking.

We used to have one, but currently there isn't one. If there's enough interest one could be implemented again I'm sure.

I really don't generally. If you look at say MW throughout a balanced day, one which is up and down over prior day's close, it's just funny to see the headline of how bulls then bears then bulls then bears etc are in control. It's ridiculous really. I use market info to tell me what is happening. I am a futures day trader though, not a stock trader. I keep abreast of news in case there is anything market moving. You can use a squawk for this or even the likes of Google finance latest headlines. You could probably use Twitter even nowadays(although I'm not sure I would ).

I also have 1260-62ish as high volume on the lower end of the prior broad balance. Although if news out of Europe warrants a rally, I suspect it's proximity will dictate whether it initially holds or not.

Honestly I'm not sure, but I don't think TOS is particularly special put it that way. Don't know about MB Trader.

Hmm. Steve, I'd say that I've noticed quite a bit recently that price objectives have been tested either in the Asian or the European session. Fewer algo scalpers in a less liquid market can mean moves just happen. Happens not infrequently on days when many are away from work. Anyway, the other thing is recently there has been a great amount of focus on Europe, so they don't tend to 'wait' for the US open.

There's no harm in using all of the mainstream sites like the ones you mention so long as you realise what you should use them for. Pre-open, scan them for news items/articles only, but don't use them for much more than that. You need to know what has the market's attention, but know that these guys have to write something. Much of it you can ignore.

A little example today reminded me of this thread. Over in the day-trading-e-mini-futures thread, I made the note that (post #282 diagram) above 1235.75 I felt the E-mini S&P 500 was going to be out of balance. This often leads to a trend. So contextually, I was looking to follow not fade the market today. The large blue profile is the balance volume from the beginning of August.

It's about quality not quantity dear Bob! Anyway, when did I say that I believe the Euro will tank??

Timing is important definitely. Btw, if the market does move down to 1243, if it were me I wouldn't just sit on an order at 1243.25. I'd want to see how the market acts on approach. Up to you though. I think 4 ticks is very small a stop unless you are amazingly accurate with your entries. Do you trade enough to maybe reduce your size a little to still allow for 2-3 scales but also increase your stop without increasing overall risk? I knew a while ago some guys who used to increase their size through the session. They'd trade a set size, but start off small to see whether they/market were on form. Another thing traders do is they might try to take a couple of smaller trades first to have something on the board before they go for the big hit. That way you're playing with the 'house's money'. Of course you have to be able to pick off the 1-2 point trades consistently to benefit from that.