TheNegotiator

Well, let me point out one thing to start with. In an attempt to mitigate risk directly associated with leaving money with a clearer, you'll likely see people attempting to spread their money better. They'll likely leave less as a percentage with clearers they perceive to be more risky and put more money with those they see as safer. This in itself could alter the risks if people tend to do the same and more money gets piled into certain places. What it could mean though is clearers and brokers see money moving and they want to hold onto it. So what'll that mean? Incentive in all likelihood. Low commissions, better service maybe. One thing I'd like to see is online flexible automated access to accounts. I much prefer to be able to work this way for example with online banking, but then when I need to I can still get hold of a person to speak to. Maybe this is available for some.

Well so far, trading is clearly responsive in nature. Open type was a reject reverse imo and accordingly we are marching higher right now. First test of importance is coming up at 1229.75.

Well if this continues, we'll be back at good ol' 1157.50 before too long.

Greek and Italian parliaments teetering on the edge right now! CME CEO confirmed MF Global is not in compliance with customer segregation requirements!! ...and the selling continues

It's possibly a little early to be thinking about this right now, but it seems to me that the brokerage and clearing industry is likely to come under much scrutiny in the light of the current goings on at MF Global. People are sure to be worried about their money even if they aren't with MF Global and are likely to reassess the amount of margin they leave with their clearer. If MF can go down, why not anyone else right? So my question to you guys is what exactly would you want to see change in the industry, with your clearer, or even with your broker? Anything small or large can be pointed out. Voice your opinions!!!

Yeah I think there's a good chance that the market will be moving aggressively at the very least. Remember there's ISM today and more importantly NFPs on Friday to be thrown into the mix. There's likely to be a substantial gap on open too. But we have to trade what we see not what we think

You must've been pretty pissed off though Steve! Glad it didn't cause you any major problem. The idea I discussed is just a possible. I mention it because it's the kind of thing if not looked at can really put a big dent in your account (and clearly some do very well out of it too). The DAX move looks pretty orderly so far agreed. Would be pretty nice to have got on that one and by the looks of it, it wasn't too difficult. But I wouldn't automatically think that'll follow through into the RTH ES session. Clearly lower liquidity was present during most of yesterday and when there is less liquidity and people need to do business, markets move. I did a quick study to show relative ES volume between the last hour of NYSE(plus the extra 15mins) and the rest of the session. We're seeing more European news right now, not exactly instilling markets with confidence.

I hope everyone is okay with their accounts. I am guessing not though from a statistical point of view. The MF Global issue seems to be bigger than was first thought with some clients cash being, well should we say not where it should be. To those who don't have access to their accounts I hope everything works out for you soon. Someone Is Going To Jail For This: MF Global Caught Stealing Hundreds Of Millions From Customers? | ZeroHedge As far of trading goes, I will certainly be wary of the market. Things tend to be somewhat unpredictable when events of this nature are in focus. It's possible for example, that the market is not doing much one minute, the next it shoots off in one direction, then the next it stops dead. Behaviour MAY be erratic. Part of all our jobs as traders is to properly judge current conditions of the market and appropriately assign risk. It might be a sensible idea to at the very least adjust size to account for the risk involved. Think about this. If a number of accounts all of a sudden get unlocked with multiple offside positions which haven't been possible to fully hedge, what's going to happen? They'll have to liquidate as soon as is reasonable. Possibly immediately. The likelihood in this case if they HAVE to liquidate is that there will be a disregard for any levels. They will just buy/sell until they are flat. IF this scenario were to play out and I'm not suggesting I am certain it will, even though behaviour could be erratic or at the very least not the normal type of trading you see, it is still fundamentally an auction. Buyers will keep buying until either there are no buyers left or there is a strong reaction from sellers. Sellers will keep selling until either there are no sellers left or there is a strong reaction from buyers. The motivations of the buyers/sellers may be different but it is still an auction. When price moves quickly away from perceived value, there tend to be certain participants looking for a bargin(long or short). It may be that value then moves towards price, but basically price tends to move too far in these sorts of circumstances. My point is, if the market does move strongly in one direction or the other, don't be surprised if there is a strong counter move which follows. Another point to be aware of is that with all the links MF has in the markets and the client money issue, there could well be important announcements/revelations throughout the day. So keep you ear to the ground. (Oh yeah and there's still the EU sovereign debt issue)

It's a standard candlestick with a volume profile study attached to it. The X I marked it up the long term profile (green) with was where the RTH session opened exactly in this case. 1266.50. The long term profile has the data from the entire move from the 2009 low, back adjusted for the spread between contracts. (i.e. the contract is a continuation contract for the ES). If you want to learn things, stick around here!

Yeah you can say that again. A 6pt range 2.5hrs into RTH for ES is tiny at the moment! Here's an IB range/volume study for last 100 days.

by the way, i hope noboday was too surprised at where we opened! (right at that high vol)

Hi everyone! Hope all had a good weekend and those in the US with snow weren't too badly affected. The idea is to see if there is a reaction either at or around the high volume on the long term profile at 1266.50 or maybe Thurs low then see if the next few days can see a test of 1300/1302.75 high vol. Here's my chart:-

If you are going to do something like this, let me suggest that you only use skype at the start/end of trading. I think something like googlewave would be better to use throughout the day as it is orientated to sharing information and communally editing it.

I'm not suggesting in any way that you can't learn from others. The comment about the question being changed to one of consistent profitability as a gauge of success is not what I am getting at and I actually disagree with it anyway. I am getting at the idea that the length in time of your journey to being a highly competent and experienced trader depends on your application to the exercise. Simple. Just as the difference in two kids' grades in school isn't always about level of intelligence and often more about how hard they work and if they listen in class. I disagree with profit being a gauge of your success not because it isn't, but because if this is the way you judge your own performances in the market, it opens up a whole lot of potential for psychological issues. The best traders always trade to trade well. They know if they do, over the long haul, they'll take a good amount out of the markets. If you HAVE to, talk in ticks not in $.

Great quote(I think I may have already put it in the quotes/sayings thread) "Men are wise in proportion, not to their experience, but to their capacity for experience" -James Boswell, Scottish diarist and author of "The Life of Samuel Johnson"

So what about if we manage to break the 1275 conclusively? Anyone think it has the legs to get to 1294.50/1302.50? There are a good few minor target in between imo.

There's no way that debarcles of this magnitude simply evaporate overnight. Problems and new revelations on the problems will continue for years.

Lol. I would have picked B. I noticed I had reversed the two in my last post which is why I added the Edit in to clarify.

For those who took the time to look at the chart() ES very much playing out what was suggested. Move down was strong ish but not exceptional. Stopped so far just short of 1260.25 and proceeded to move back to midpoint. Nice trade. Take a look at the cumulative delta on a 3 min chart. Look how flat it was at the bottom.

What?! Where did the being shot bit come into it? I know you have to expect the unexpected but the idea is about experience and practise. Pilot B has never even taken the controls. It's like letting your 12 yr old son drive your car because he's sat next to you on lots of journeys and watched what you do. It's not right!! My point was that if you don't properly experience something at all you are far less likely to be proficient at even after considerable time. Perhaps the simulator analogy was chosen poorly. EDIT: Lol. I was trading and got confused as to which was pilot B! Oh well. Trade was good. Probably shouldn't trade and post at the same time.

It looks as though the markets are strong today with a gap up from the close at 1238 of over 30 points. We'll have to see how it handles the 1275-75.50 to see if it'll power up on RTH open. More description is in the chart below.

Well the kind of moves which could've happened yesterday didn't materialise. However, it looks as though we might go for it today given overnight activity. Who knows. Anyway, early on yesterday, a very clear selloff did happen and it was fairly easy to get onboard. The "how much" question was more the issue! But it goes to show that even if the actual event itself ends up not producing fireworks, the pre-event trading can be quite productive.

I know BUT my point is just sitting in front of a trading screen is not necessarily that useful. You have to learn and study and develop yourself. Use your time wisely so that you stand a better chance of the experience being useful as opposed to just going straight over your head.

Lol. I think it's actually useful to demonstrate how an understanding of the underlying mechanics of a market should be the cornerstone of any nutritious strategy! The how and the why of the markets are likely to dictate its longevity.

Breaking the day up definitely would be important to me overall in my trade selection. During the middle of the day, there tends to be far less impetus to move the market than at the open and close. This is generally always the case. However, like the recent summers being far from dull(in the trading sense), I'd say that when there's important stuff going on, the market will move.