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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Call me a cynic, but there is something not quite right with the way the Eurozone are being squeezed. One after the other, they are being pushed to the limit. Spreads are widening regardless, but when it's a country's 'turn', the heat really gets turned up. So Italy is in the spotlight now. Confidence votes and resignation denials from Berlusconi in the media makes it pretty obvious that Italy needs to put measures in place to make the market 'happy'. The mass financial consciousness, has decided that it can no longer accept anything less than strong action and commitment by Italy to paying it's money back. If "The Market" decides that Berlusconi is no longer suitable to run this commitment to repayment of debt, the market will squeeze the politicians so hard until it gets its way. I suspect this is going to happen but we'll have to see. The trillions in debt Italy owes is rather more than Greece. So my thought is, how long can Italy politically procrastinate in the hopes of maintaining the illusion that they are in control and not TM? If it's not 'fixed' quickly, things are gonna get a whole lot uglier!
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Any Bond Futures Traders Around?
TheNegotiator replied to cybernick's topic in Day Trading and Scalping
What are you looking for? Some tips that'll make you money? Bond futures are much like any other product from a technical point of view that they trade via an auction. They have things which probably effect them more than other products though. Bond auctions, POMO, interest rates/inflation, curve plays. Lots of things. Know what's happening in the news. Understand which timetabled events are going to effect your markets and learn what you find works best for you from a technical standpoint. If you have any specific questions, ask them and maybe someone will be able to help. -
Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
TheNegotiator replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Hello to all the new guys! It's great to see more and more people joining up. I'm sure the hope is you can learn something, help others or simply socialise. Whatever your reason, the key is to PARTICIPATE! That means posting questions/comments/theories/observations, making friends, using the "thanks/like" buttons and generally being more than just a passive observer. The more of you who do this, the better and better TradersLab will get! Good luck and see you in the forums! -
Yeah I took those 42s myself. The obvious 41.50 for a bit of supportive info, also lined up with a decent fibo ext of the IB. Not my favourite ext level but one which given the level and the action, was nice to see.
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Sorry guys. Technical issue with chart I posted which I didn't have time to update. Just had the last 30mins missing. It doesn't change what I said apart from the doji.
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I have a chart this morning showing a few observations as to why the market is undecided but I am leaning a little to the up side. Friday was a doji, it was a neutral day and it was also an inside day. It did however close above my important band between the two long term volume distributions. For me, the indecision is building up for a break. If we don't see a break today, then all the more reason for it to move strongly when it does.
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Can MF Global Collapse Make the Industry Change?
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in General Trading
I don't believe in regulation for the sake of it either. Normally happens when govt's and officials have there hands forced by the tide of popular opinion. I think that lack of trust is a difficult thing for economies. But I can't see a way that it'll be avoided given the one very clear fact to come out of the last 4/5 years. People's values are based on money and accumulation of it rather than morales. It's basically Sodom and Gomorrah for a certain section of society. The punishments for these kind of guys are also lame. What about BM? I reckon he shouldn't be in prison, but instead he should do something he personally would find really degrading. The punishments do nothing to discourage this kind of thing. Is JC gonna be in big shit? Well I wouldn't say things will be great for him, but as the former ceo of gs and gov of nj I just think he's too deep in the system for them to 'allow' him to burn. Anyway, individuals aside, there's no proper appropriate consequences for these guys imo. -
I agree about the 'whatever works' sentiment wholeheartedly. Although there's always room for refinement of a process. The 1244 entry was a nice one which also coincided with an area I was watching. I think the idea of the market moving around the last 30mins cash is not especially far fetched at all. Traders are motivated to trade as there's not much time left. If you watch what happens around the turn of each 30min period, you often see an increase in activity there too. Not necessarily to the same extent, but you do. Overall, it's similar to the end of a week/month/quarter/year. Big players are likely to be motivated to trade as a function of their reporting.
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Can MF Global Collapse Make the Industry Change?
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in General Trading
I think these issues run so deep though that it'd be difficult to fix them as such. I really don't know what the ultimate answer is(it's not 42 unfortunately). No doubt we'll see more regulatory oversights and big BM type scams in the world of finance and beyond. The morale of the story is never take someone else's word for it, don't trust anyone and always have a backup plan! -
Did you take the 44's steve?
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Can MF Global Collapse Make the Industry Change?
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in General Trading
How can things really change when you have these greedy money ossessed guys willing to sell their own Grandmother if they think they'll make a good profit? Operating within the technicalities of the law is a big problem. People purposely sail so close the the wind that much of what they do shouldn't be legal. But they will always attemp to exploit the system. So the only way to stop them is to closely monitor what's going on. Trouble is, the money to do this just isn't there for the most part. -
Hi Steve, They weren't bad entries at all. ES had already respected the 2 areas to an extent and the flow of the market had already changed. I have noticed that the examples that you post generally tend to show entries on discernable retests of your supply areas. Would you say this is a fundamental part of your trading or is it just one of the ways you'll enter the market?
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tulanch, Monitoring price action within a defined period like 1 min is not really going to be especially effective. Indeed as you noted, the price action you are looking for might have happened in many different ways during various different 1 min periods. Personally, I don't believe fixed time candles are appropriate at all in watching price action. I prefer to see the actual amount of trading activity. So, I prefer to watch the dom and use volume based charts. The time based charts I do use are to look for swing extremities, not price action. In fairness, it doesn't really make any difference what you look at and how you interpret it if you are a profitable trader. If you do it and it works, it ain't wrong. wrb, I think that context probably can be modelled nowadays by very smart people with very high powered computing. But then those guys probably don't use candlesticks either! :o
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Those trades look pretty good Steve. But it's always important to qualify any trade idea with entry criteria. So the question is, what do you believe should be the entry criteria for this type of trade? I would think watching price action around that time, if it's around an area which you might choose for entry anyway and based on the auction- i.e. how confident is the market and are there likely to be people looking to exit before cash close?
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The NFP fig came in pretty weak(+80k vs +95k exp), even though headline unemployment fell a little(9.0% vs 9.1% exp). The key was probably the revision of last month's fig from +103k to +158k. Overall it's good then. ES was all over the shop on the release. It's still likely to be about news from Europe today in all likelihood. Anyway, here's a chart:-
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All eyes on Greece/EU sovereign debt today along with unexpected ECB rate cut. Markets seem to be quite excited and there is likely to be a good deal of news flow, so will have to be on your toes trading today! Simple chart today.
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I think this one requires further explanation wrb. My view is if you don't understand it, don't automate it. But if you do understand how to use candlesticks, what specific reason makes them poorly suited to being used in an automated system? They are just data points. OHLC. I'm sure context can be modelled to some extent and certainly money management factored in. Maybe it just depends on the type of strategy you are trying to automate.
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Just seemed to come a little bit out of nowhere. Like someone got margin back and exited all at once. Just taking a look at T&S now. -maybe like 15k or so went through in like 3 or 4 seconds. But there was a rush where a load went through. Kinda like when stops get hit.
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anyone see that move in ES 13:02 EST?
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Can MF Global Collapse Make the Industry Change?
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in General Trading
So maybe the issue is just down to lame regulators and lower personal consequence for executives? I just don't know though. I think that if we're not careful, rather than think of what can be done to change things properly, there'll be a swing in the other direction. Where as before there was less and less, maybe going forward there'll be more and more regulation. I don't see that as automatically a good thing. -
Well the scenario didn't play out yesterday but we did see some responsive buying, then balancing. Not unsurprising either really. FOMC later after strong ADP figs(pinch of salt probably required). We are going to open in purgatory by the looks of things. Gap to the upside at 1246.50 and a gap to the downside at 1224.00. Open might be interesting!
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There is something else which is key here. There are many people in trading who are not profitable not because they just haven't turned the corner, found their niche or got their ego under control. Indeed, these are universal issues for a trader to become successful. However, the many of which I speak are just not capable of EVER making it. Whether that's due to nature or nurture is a different thread . But it doesn't make them useless people in any way. So they need to take their learning period as time to reflect on their own suitability to trading and not just believe that anyone can make it given the right methods. Part of learning whether your skills are suitable to being a trader is knowing what it actually takes to be successful and knowing what you should be doing. Just trying lots of different methods and them not working for you doesn't make them poor methods. I have mixed feelings on trading rooms. Whilst I feel a good one can reveal what a good trader is looking at, I also think there are guys out there who take advantage of naive and inexperienced noobs. People who really don't know what they're doing themselves and charge a fortune for "the dream" of becoming a great trader. If you do want to be part of a room, or learn from someone then think very carefully before parting with your cash. Speak to the guy or the teacher. Get a trial. If they don't do trials I suggest walking. Don't part with thousands of $$ up front to anyone, ever. EVER. Not even guys with a big reputation. Read reviews(don't just trust them either as they could be written by the owners themselves). Ask about them on forums(all of them). If someone's had a bad experience, you can be sure they'll wanna shoot the company/guy down in the forums!! Lastly, ask yourself really what it is you want to achieve from it and what are the motivations of the company. Nobody can just show you how to trade and that's it, you'll be profitable. It has to come from within, but a good guide can be very useful. Sorry about the length of that post!
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Lol. Every method is a waste of time if you don't know how to use it properly right? I think you could devise automated strategies to be profitable off candlesticks alone, but without market context, money management/position sizing and probably market diversification are likely to be key to its success. With trade selection using experience and context, I think you can greatly increase the odds of the strategy.
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How about this. Your ego is just your ego. You are however, in a similar way to those Nat Geo guys, swimming with the sharks every single day you are trading. Consistent, well thought out behaviour will allow you to work with them in a seemingly effortless way. However, if you start acting in a way in which they don't expect, they'll eat you alive. Your ego or your laziness or your inability to stick to a plan is the unpredictability I am talking about.
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Looks like a good one Steve! Would you say it's more or less prevalent on certain types of day or is the "cleanup" trade something which occurs regardless?