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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Fed's Dudley is chatting now just to throw some more into the mix.
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Big move there. Wasn't watching particularly though. Due to Pianalto? (and break of 20 area) Edit: actually looks to have started on break of 23.75 IBL and right on half past which is when comments started.
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Yep, good point. Suggests balance but the break was late so it could still be confirmed today. Early test of around 41.50 might be a good yardstick and if I were not a day trader, I'd like to see a close above the balance VPOC 1248.50 (appropriately extended balance today!). I think a close below 1229.75 could be a bad thing and below 20 area would certainly not be good. Still lots of fun news these days and market can turn on a sixpence(or dime)! Not trying to predict today just watching the action.
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The market is all over the place at the moment. I think there are generally good moves to be had both sides. As a simulated exercise, maybe try a couple of days where you only go short and a couple where you only go long. When it broke it was fairly hard. Given Europe still being messed up and that there were still some juicy areas to be tested to the downside, I wasn't thinking of fading the move. I shorted 55.50 before the move and IB low(ish) 40.25 on a retest. It didn't give a great deal other than that, which I was happy to take. When a market breaks quickly, you have to be careful and patient.
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Lol. I wouldn't worry too much. It's just the market jellifying your brain! Happens to me often.
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No offense taken MM. Make sure "current" is unchecked in the profile options just above the POC/VA colour settings.
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These things do happen. You're probably right that taking it off at 52.25 after the area we were talking about held again, was not the best. But hey. That's why I mentioned before about scaling. The other point might have been to get an entry a little closer to the 1248.50 level given the tight stops you tend to use!
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Question is Josh did you take the trade and did you hold it? It ticked the 1247.75 so I'm not sure.
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No I'm not distracted don't worry . I was just saying in a round about way, I don't want to affect your personal trading decisions as you trade!
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Hmm. Personally, if the market shoots one way then comes back quickly, I wouldn't necessarily take the trade. Really to confirm strength, I think it needs to get back into the upper dev(probably above 52) and maybe break high. If it drops back below 50 from here, I'm not sure that's a good sign. I could of course be absolutely wrong though. One point I should make is talking about trading while you have a trade or are going to take one can be difficult. I think many a trade has been held too long or not taken because of talking to someone else.
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Excellent and while we were sorting that out, ES has a little move! So what next then?
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Yeah np. I will do if changing the no of profiles it's set to compute doesn't work.
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Oh. Do me a favour, just open the profile prefs and post a screenshot for me. Though I think it's probably cos you have it set to compute 1 profile only.
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Yes it is a 3min chart. There is a little bit going on in the area. I wouldn't say it's broken properly. For me, to break it has to push beyond and continue. Here, it just poked a couple of prices. I think we need to see what its next move might be before doing anything. On the IRT chart, if you mean the space between the profile (if it's set to right align) and the price axis, just hover over the tiny black triangle which is on the x-axis(time) next to the y-axis and drag it to where you want it. (if that makes sense! )
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can you post an example pls?
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Interesting how IBH/low vol/VWAP area is holding ES up right now. If it holds, maybe 58 area on the cards, if not I'd say at least a move back to VPOC. edit: sorry I forgot the midpoint.
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Hey Steve, It's definitely a useful thing to be looking at esp when Europe is a big focus right now. For anyone who doesn't know, the Dax is the German blue chip stock index. You also saw a similar divergence in the Euro FX.
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What's your point MM? I was trying to point out two things. One, the balance profile's VPOC was 1248.50 slightly out from the 1249.00 Mon&Tues VPOC. This shouldn't really have made too much difference to any trade someone might take. Two, the additional volume which has accumulated between 1241.5-51.50. I didn't say I traded it, I didn't say I didn't. I also posted the update as soon as I saw the reaction to 48.25 and realised the profile was wrong.
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And it's gone!! Next up is the 53.25 maybe.
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Something will give sooner or later, but so far it's been fairly simple:-
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I inadvertantly(read:stupidly) forgot to extend my current balance profile. This is what it currently looks like less action so far today:-
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A couple of interesting prices on the chart for today if ES pushes back up at all from here. 1249.00 VPOC was the same as Mon and 1253.25 was IBH, low vol and low of selloff into close. It's also quite possible that we test/close gap to 1237.00 area in RTH and then 1229.75. Beyond that it looks like 1220-22 might be the next interesting area. That said, a bit of news right now may come out and the ES blow through all its nearby levels. Trade what you see
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Developing Trader's State of Mind Discussion
TheNegotiator replied to zdo's topic in Trading Psychology
Trading is a facinating pursuit to look at people's personalities. Reading your post Rande reminds me of several people I've known through the years. Many and especially those who have had some success in other areas of their lives, come into trading with a self- defined construct of reality based on what they feel may have helped them in their lives so far(whether or not they are aware of this). This in most cases has little to do with trading reality and often causes much harm when they embark on their new adventure to become a great trader. The very fact that they have had some success creates a situation where it is exceeding difficult to let go and redefine(or just undefine) reality. A symptom of this can be very easily seen and it's perhaps quite likely that a good number exhibiting this kind of behaviour will have trouble with letting go. Go down to your local watering hole, approach a few of the regulars and ask them about sport or politics. Much of what follows will be hot air and opinions formed on little more than the current direction of the wind. Yet it is someone else's reality. Trading is a microcosm of life. Enjoy the Vegas show Rande(and anyone else who goes)! -
After a stronger close yesterday, ES overnight has tested a decent amount lower than the 37 area of importance(down to 34) and pushed back higher on some decent figs. My question is, can we get back and hold above yesterday's close at 1252.00? I want to see whether there's any conviction either way on open and in the early part of the session.
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Absolutely. But you need to be really good at it too. You know there are some pretty damn good professional gamblers out there too. Except they view it just a good trader should. Playing the probabilities based on information, experience, statistics and account management. People who say it's just gambling don't understand trading at all. That being said, many traders don't understand either. Trading is like being a professional athlete in a way. However, if you become a professional athlete, you'll have come up through the ranks and trained for years before you go up against other pros. That is not a luxury you have as a trader.