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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Sensationalist attention grabbing titles aside, I do have something to say. I see so many people searching for the holy grail of technical analysis. A technique that if applied properly, will lead to untold riches! Yet that which people are looking for is often right before them. However, blinded by all these methods:- Market profile, Elliott Wave, MACD, Super lightspeed multi timeframe sequential frequency stochastical kick F*****G ass indicator :o! they will usually miss the point. In the hands of a capable trader, a moving average can be applied profitably. A less than should we say brilliant trader, will likely lose whatever they try. This isn't to say that a trader doesn't need to "find a method that fits" as is often said. It's that to find a method that fits requires each one to be tested and applied with true professionalism and intent. Simple things that this entails:- 1- Formulate a method of technical analysis which looks at specific elements of the market. Make sure each item you add is there for a reason and keep things clear. 2- Know what is going on in the bigger picture of the market and at least have a basic understanding of the auction to help you identify the current conditions and therefore appropriately apply any strategy you may have. 3- Use your analysis to monitor the market and note down observations. Research your ideas for strategies to exploit certain aspects you see recurring time and time again. 4- Work out sensible risk:reward/position sizing for your strategy and monitor its performance over time with these conditions applied. 5- Work out a method of trade selection. When do you take a trade and when do you pass on it? If you don't, you may find you are constantly kicking yourself when you pass up great trades and are stuck in trades which suck and you knew at the time you shouldn't have entered. 6- Stick to your carefully considered plans!! If you don't, you have no way of telling whether the method works or not. Overall, people have to realise that there is no right and wrong in trading other than consistent p/l. In my experience, those who "make it" have a dedicated professional attitude rather than some uber method which just works.
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So much for it being a busy day eh! I don't know Josh. I just know for sure I really don't like the kind of non-flowing grinding action we saw before. If it breaks lower, then there'll likely be some relieved shorts I reckon. Higher and we could see a scramble for the exits. Who knows though
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It's just used as a proxy. OTF moves the market inside and outside of value area. Often the most obvious strong OTF moves happen away from value. But also, OTF can enter at value when they believe value has changed. Remember, when value changes, the quicker you can identify changes to value the more of the move you can take. If you watch closely, you'll see that often decent sized moves begin right at the center of balance. Effectively the fat part of the bell shaped curve when the market is balanced and contained in a trading range. The POC is where most trades have occurred in a day(or over a time period). This price is supposedly the "fairest price" for the time period being monitored. What you have stated is pretty much correct. Any trading by OTF after price has moved away from value could be considered initiative or responsive action.
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Euro moving down, ES moving up and ES delta dropping? What you reckon Josh?
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I hope everyone had a nice weekend and Thanksgiving! Some big ol' moves going on into rth session open! News driven = caution. Hold on to a loser at your peril!!! Anyway, I have noted down a few simple levels in price which I will look at and try to see how the market reacts after trading there.
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Delta can be used in a simple or in a complicated way. I prefer the simple. Using cumulative delta helps me track the level and continuation of imbalance and acts as an additional piece to the picture I use in my decision making arsenal. If something you use which been well thought through works, use it. If it stops working, change it. Everything we understand in life is best guess only. Don't ever let anyone tell you something is wrong if it really does work for you. No matter who they are.
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Initiative and Responsive activity according to the book can happen anywhere in relation to yesterday's profile(or longer term balance). The TPO count above and below the POC is used to determine a level of OTF activity inside the value area. I personally don't really use it. Initiative and responsive activity is far more useful to me when it occurs outside recent perceived 'value'.
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Volume histograms to me is volume traded per bar period. Not volume profile. The thing I am trying to get across is seeing the volume flow as it trades. I personally don't believe you can do this though volume histograms. I think to get a proper feel for the flow you have to have a good connection and setup to see the trades as they come through real time.
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Sorry cfrn, I don't really understand what your reasoning for selling 1172.00 would have been. Your chart is a tiny snapshot and there is no indication of what your indicators are and how you are using them.
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I tend not to look too much at a volume histogram on a short timeframe. At point of entry, the price action can happen within seconds and so even a 1min histogram masks the speed of the trades coming in. I prefer to watch the DOM/T&S and a profile to see if there is a build of vol. Clearly the profile is a little clearer when looking at either extremities or early on in the session when less volume has already gone through. The other thing for me Josh is that when I am about to enter a trade, I am looking at multiple things already, so I have to narrow down my scope of vision otherwise everything I look at becomes blurred. I have tried to show in the chart the things I was looking at for the entry. The reason I had felt that the move was temporarily over was that at 10:30am EST when it traded 64s the price action suggested a struggle. I also noted that Oil Inv came in weak and prices were moving up quickly in crude. Then, the last swing high was taken out in what had been a clear down trend. Then the next push lower couldn't retake the IB low. Volume had built a bit and that again was supportive information.
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Well it pretty much got to the 1157.50 in the end - just 1pt shy. Nice demonstration of how the market 'targets' certain objectives especially when it's out of balance. I hope everyone did well. Happy Thanksgiving to all (and to those who aren't in US, happy days off because of US holiday!! )
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You can use the insert image icon to insert the url if you like. Better to upload it to the TL servers first by adding it as an attachment. Also, the is a picture of the day thread which it could go in:- Picture of the Day
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********************************NOTICE*********************************** ********************************NOTICE*********************************** ********************************NOTICE*********************************** Just so everyone knows, any trade you take is entirely your responsibility alone. Any ideas posted here by any user are just their ideas and are meant for thought and discussion only. They are not trading suggestions or recommendations. Thank you.
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Btw I just noticed that the chart to the right with the long term profile happens to have the peak volume looking like it's coming in at the low of 1164.00 on the left chart. It doesn't, it's just poorly aligned! It comes in at 1157.50. Just make sure you look at the separate price scales for the two different charts.
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I didn't trade it (because it takes too long to post an image!!) but sometimes after a directional move like the one we have seen, I do look for any reaction at the first move back to 38.2% fibonacci. Especially when it ties in with something else. The 38.2% ret cam in at VWAP and a volume area at 1168.75.
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Nice move down there I thought. Hope a few of you caught the train! For now it looks to be over, but could well push further later on. We'll have to see.
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Pre-Thanksgiving market today and it looks quite possible this market is due for a stuffing(cough). Bad jokes aside, Mon/Tues balanced and opening looks like it'll be below that range by a decent enough amount. I'd say failure to get build back in that range and who would bet against seeing that ol' 1157.50 area again? Any takers? The one caveat is that it is just before TG and so we could also end up seeing nothing, or because of that reason the move could be accentuated. We'll just have to see.
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Considerations for a Wannabe Trader...
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Beginners Forum
I don't know why you would lose the connection. Windows power saving options maybe? If the pc is 'idle' for a while maybe it switches the ethernet off. I don't know though you'd have to check. -
Isn't the lack of acknowledgement more about fear than anything? Who from is the question. Is it from the individual member states? Thoughts might be - "If we just keep going under the radar maybe we'll get out of it" or "if we openly admit our problems we'll be mercilessly attacked by markets"- if they admit to this then the actual extent must be much greater kind of thinking. Or maybe it's from the authorities. IMF, Fed, ECB and major bailout players. Possible they think - "If we can just deal with this one at a time everything can be stabilised. If they're allowed to fail whenever, the domino effect could be catastrophic."-kind of like a controlled demolition of a smokestack or skyscraper. The other possibility is that there is such a mess in many cases that until they know what they are admitting to, they just keep quiet. They know something is really bad, just they're not sure what or why exactly. I don't really know though. Just musings.
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Sorry steve. The question was what is it that you are refering to specifically when you mention 'tape'? NYSE tick is what I think you were saying.
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Thanks. If like Siuya says, "context is king", confluence is queen. (Lol. If that makes sense) Question though. You refer to tape as the NYSE tick? Also, when you're trading ES, do you ever open an S&P tick chart(not a chart of the s&p with candles based on ticks but net tick of all s&p constituent issues for anyone who doesn't know)?
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I sold just as it was moving back from high. I didn't have a resting limit order if that was the question.
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Reading the metaphorical tape is not a magical thing, but it is important. I would say more people know how to read the tape than you might think. It's just maybe they don't understand or have a method of employing it in their trading yet. Tape reading is meaningless without continuation of a direction subsequent to the action in question. Often something can look like it's reversing in a place where it isn't necessarily achieving any significant objectives within the auction. It reverses a little, only to go through the point later on. Personally I didn't take the trade off the 86.75 area. I did however, take the trade at the top(sold 1294.00) which was also an area but nearer the edge of an extreme. I closed it out at 87.50. So as the proverb goes steve, there's more than one way to skin a cat.
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Maybe the reason they chose number two does tell you a lot. But it was an option to sit back and not press too hard. We opened right in the middle of yesterday's crummy profile and were still waiting for figures and fomc minutes.