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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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How to Create Your Own Trading Method: Revealed!
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Technical Analysis
Hi Mar, I don't know about following analysts. The thing for me is having a good understanding myself and not to rely on someone else. Maybe it would be easier to find a bad one and do the opposite to what they say! Also, there are lots of people who trade ONLY in the first hour. Take your pick, but make sure you are thoroughly prepared for however you trade. -
Well done buddy. Pleased for you. I know it was just one trade but it went your way and you took money from it. I didn't think it was a wonderful day but then not all of them can be right? Tomorrow is a new day and we start again...
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Since Sunday huh? The thing you need to understand is the auction. MP helps that and also gives some nice reference points. Identifying OTF activity is what people are mainly looking for because OTF moves the market. Much of it is guess work but educated guess work. If you think the market has broken out to the up side and there is initiative buying, is it following through? If it is it's most likely to be OTF. I think you need to be applying MP to each separate session. FX kinda makes things a little more complicated in that respect. But it's doable for sure.
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Both. Generally if price is ranging though, profile is also developing(at least to some extent). Highest volume is in the middle. Another tell is that you have your triangle - prices are contracting on both high and low swings, so more is being traded closer to the middle. It can be a very useful thing too as it kind of builds up energy with this sort of action and a break is decent when it does happen.
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That's probably true. I do think there's a decent chance of it testing higher. However, it's moved back into the 18-21 Nov gap and started developing. I think that says we've found some sellers at least for now anyway. I kinda thought we could push on a little more than we have already. But then again it had tested 1206.50(ON high was 06.00) in the European session. So as always we'll have to see!
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Could be, but also right now ES is balancing a bit. It's also lunchtime ish. I want to see a break before I decide whether to trade this market any more.
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If there are lots of people all talking crap about how they'll fail to fix the problems I am aware and do try to judge if the price action is reacting at all. I don't trade off it generally.
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Lots of chatting fun going on at the moment.
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Yeah that seemed to hold a bit better didn't it? No guarantees it'll hold if it retests tho. Just have to see.
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There was definitely some buying going on there but it just seemed too heavy to push on from there. I think that says something though about the auction.
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That 97.75 high from 21st seems to be useful - also VWAP and low volume.
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Yeah, I was looking at 99 area b4 but when it attempted on high but didn't make it I felt they were a little close. Could've possibly taken a short around 1202 but I didn't.
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Lol on the stop! Good plan. You still in for the 99s though?
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What's the 1205 based on? I reckon past the current high we'd be likely to at least test 1206.50 then I have a feeling it'll go to 1213.50 past there.
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How far are you looking for it to move in your favour before taking profit?
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Np Josh. I have every confidence you'll nail it today!
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Given that overnight we have broken to the up side to test 1206.50 prior balance low and now we've fallen back into a kind of balance area and at least yesterday's rth range, there could well be a further exploration of prices lower to test towards 80.75/79.75. Depends on what the open looks like but that is the initial thought anyway. Take a look at the chart for a few ideas.
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Hi Josh, I think I missed one of your trades out yesterday, but not to worry!! Regarding the last trade, there was no real break from the lower balance which was developing. So there was no reason to actually move your stop at all. Moving your stop can be a very useful strategy but it can also kill your account. Just a note though. Many people will not exit using stops, only using them as 'failsafes'. They are out when the market tells them to be out. Anyway, I think you have to look at exactly why and when you will move your stops and have fixed rules for doing so. The rest of your entries have a recurring theme at least on this day. Your direction is good but your entries always seem to be a little early, putting you under pressure. The first trade for example I felt was a good idea. BUT, the market had gapped up and was grinding higher at that point. There was no break from the move to suggest it had stopped and so there is a question to be asked. When you fade(like you did on all 4 trades btw!), do you get in at what you feel is a good price and see if the market then breaks the structure of the move, closing the position quickly if it doesn't or do you wait for the structure to break and hope to be able to get a good price after that has happened? One last point. You said you felt that even though the market had gapped up, we are amidst some terrible economic conditions and clearly after the initial push higher on open it struggled. So while your overall idea was to short the market, 75% of the trades you took were actually long trades... Unfortunately, to me it was at the point where your first trade was stopped out that told me we'd be testing lower. All that pressing and a failure to break higher felt ominous.
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The day you are looking at looks to be a DD day. If it moved from one dist to then create and develop another only to move back, that is additional information. Maybe there was uncertainty short term, such a a pending eco release. The market then breaks but longer term players use the opportunity to get advantageous price and this halts the movement. Weaker short term players then fold and the market moves back. Like ant says, the open and day types are labels used to quickly define what has happened. What is really important is the confidence and the OTF activity. Often you'll find days which you feel are on the cusp of two definitions and so it is a judgement call you have to make as to what the market has done to make sense of the profile. Profiles are historical yes, but they can help you clearly define market activity. Personally, I feel mp has weaknesses which means I hardly use it. I can 'get' the auction, which is really the big thing you should take from MOM, from a combination of other methods. But stick with it through the book. It'll only complicate things otherwise. Changing value is about movement and activity relative to current value. If you are at the high value extreme and buyers are still dominating, it's likely that the perception of this value is at least likely to be challenged. Then if the trading activity persists higher and profile development occurs, new value is probably already present, but if the market fails to build and starts reversing, there's a good chance that value is unchanged. Anyway, one last thing. Keep going with MOM and apply it daily. You may reread it a few times, you may not. I know that a good number of people find it heavy going at times and if you are newly coming into trading this could well be exacerbated.
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A bit of hindsight analysis for you here before I log off for the day. Trade 1 - I think there was some decent volume just below 90 and into open it was grinding through that area. 1 tick below a round number is not something I'd advise generally either. Trade 2 - Didn't really work and maybe you should've been out already, but when it moved in your favour but didn't take last swing high at 94 you should have exited probably actually at 91 for a scratch as here it broke the upward move structure. Trade 3 - You probably didn't do a whole lot wrong. I don't think you had the best price and that's something I'm always aware of when I am assessing the trade at the time. A poor location, even if it was the best you could get at the time, when it starts coming back on you is a killer as you still need your stop in the right place and so it screws up your r:r. I'd rather let it go and see what I get. I think had you taken 2.5-3 points and called it quits that would have been a victory. 87 from memory was a reasonable level and failing to break at that point wasn't a brilliant sign. Being really good at trading isn't about always being extremely profitable. It's about trading well. If you're down but you have a positive trade on close to the end of the day, give it some space but don't cling onto it- book the profit in. You won't get another chance that day. The other thing I'd say although I think location was more of the reason you were nervous, is that you have to think why you are getting nervous. Has the market failed in your direction? Has it shown lack of intent in your direction? Has it stopped at an area you think is important? Is there any true reason for being nervous or is it like any performer where you are just getting butterflies in your stomach? Anyway I think I'm going to start rambling in a minute if I haven't done so already!! So I'll leave it there for now and we can discuss stuff more tomorrow if you're up for that.
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Of course and sometimes I still do! There are a few reasons for doing this kind of thing. Some valid some not. If you have a good reason for exiting early then you generally won't be annoyed at yourself. I have seen you do this a few times though and I could hazard a guess at why. I think it probably stems from having a good trading idea but not having a solid entry point and/or plan. Having a good trading brain is a big asset once you learn how to trade with it. I think you can quickly see what is going on. But, I also think sometimes you are entering a trade on the fly. This is because I see you not giving the trade a little room to breath. Sometimes when you see the market not moving strongly in your direction the trader might get nervous and want to exit. But if it's not going against you either, why should you exit? It's the same on exits. The market is onside and you might get nervous that the market will snap back hard. But exit when it does. Would you buy the market a point below the high because you felt the market was going to break out? Well you might, but if it were a momentum play like that and it din't go, you'd be out pretty quick else you'd have bought the high! I think you need to elaborate on why you exited so we can nail down what's going on.
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Not sure Josh. Not paying much attention right now but I would say that I try not to assume anything when the market is acting a bit shitty. Gotta see some decent increase in activity to make it worth while.
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Nice one. Big gap below if it does get going!
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Oh well. My plan when market is like this = don't force it.
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This day is brilliant. No really I mean just brilliant. :hmpf: Well there could be a move in it later for those who haven't switched off mentally. If you have, don't then trade. If the action remains like this though, I'd imagine there will be some good opportunities tomorrow. We'll see though.