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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Well yesterday ended up quite balanced and imo this wasn't too surprising. ES tested both ways but closed in the middle(ish) and formed a doji. This was pre-NFP. So NFP came out high although perhaps not quite as high as some had hoped yet so far we haven't really sold off significantly. Personally I would think that if we held above yesterday close and even better above yesterday's high, we may well be able to push to ON high 62.75 and then possibly 70 then 75 areas. Below 41.25 and to me there's a decent chance of testing 1230 area at some point. We will have to see though
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1246.25 area might also be interesting if it can find its feet.
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Targeting the 44-45 area or are you looking for a little more?
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That last push up was promising but I would've really wanted it to move through the open easily at least on the 2nd push. Also I want to see it hold above 41.50 which is also the IB low.
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I don't know. It just feels heavy. Looks like there might be buyers then it gets slapped down again. needs to convice me otherwise I'll look at 37.5 &34.5/5 Although at least right now delta has flattened out a little.
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Yeah absolutely. ISM is a pretty big figure which can move the market.
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That was definitely in my thinking too Josh. The question is are the sellers closing positions or opening new ones?
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My point would be though, which side did you see more potential for? If you only were looking at a couple of points by selling compared to maybe between 8-16 points if it moved up, why not wait for the long? It could be a decent quicl scalp type trade to sell but no more than that based on what you said. But hey. The long/short bias is probably not such a good thing though. You need to work on that. Sure you will
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Well we're still higher overnight so far after testing 1248.50 and getting to 49.50. Yesterday had rallied hard pre-NYSE open and so after an initial follow through, it consolidated for a while. The late break and reaction to it gave a few clues as to what to expect today in my opinion. Seems to me to be quite a bit of overhead volume to contend with especially considering NFP is tomorrow. Remember ADP came in strong at 206k vs. 130k expected and that had a few analysts revising their calls for NFP. ISM is also an important release at 10am EST. We'll have to see as we always do, but my guess right now is that people will want to wait for Friday before really commiting either way.
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I have to say I didn't trade again yesterday afternoon as was busy unfortunately. Looks like the break was good though. Josh a question. Before lunch you'd said:- Then after you said:- But then:- You took the sim trade and it worked, but why the change in mindset? Your buy zone was 32-33ish and we already thought it could get to 41.50 or even 48.50 if it did go. Yet you changed your mind and looked to trade 34.75 to 32.50. Was there something I missed or did it just wear you down?
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Know what you mean bud. I'm gonna get away from my screen and see what it's like after lunch. Maybe we'll get some free flowing action then. Maybe not.
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I think if this is gonna have any legs, it needs to convincingly take 37s out.
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Lol! I don't know. This sort of action has me thinking if it doesn't hold here, it'll keep squeezing longs until they're all out then it'll snap back up. But then again I've been known to be wrong too!
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Just for reference- VWAP, 38.2% retracement and overnight high at 1234.50.
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This thing has got me wondering if that was just a shake out. Not sure, but it could still go.
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I took some off at 37.75 some off at my 35.75. btw your exit there was just above the IB high you know! not that it mattered at all...
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Yeah sry 41 I meant. I'd like 38s to trade through here.
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Long 35.75 What's ur target if it can get going? high/41.50?
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Doesn't look too grinding though Josh. Did u mean up or down grinding?
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Did you manage to get in? I stepped away for a while.
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For anyone who didn't see that, here's the chart:-
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Agreed. That action at the low was nice on the 26.50 and I actually took the 27.50 given only gonna be risking a couple of points for a quick move higher. Ended up with 6 points but it's better than a kick in the teeth! There was definitely an entry there at the open/ low vol 29.75 area after it jumped higher from failing to push on new lows. Whatever you do be careful. Make sure you are getting good price and can control ur risk properly!!
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Anyone on this? Just a little hesistent for now as currencies seem to have backed off a little.
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Well not really. But this is some proper action they are taking to provide liquidity(Joint multi central bank liquidity plan announced at 8am EST zerohedge article). At least on first glance. We'll see what it really is once the market has fully digested the news. The question a day trader has to ask is "Has value changed". If it has, fading a market is madness pure and simple. Yes prices have moved far away from recent prices, but if there is a good reason then there's also a good chance that they'll go further. We will have to see what markets do over the course of the rest of the day and week. I wouldn't want to see the ES below 1229.75 and at most 22/23. When a market moves like this and doesn't follow through, there'll be an aweful lot of people with positions they need out of. If it does follow through, who knows where it might go(note I am NOT saying ths is where I believe it will go just that it could). 1248.50, 1270.50 could be some nice up side targets. The key as always is to monitor what does happen and adapt to it. If you have a small a/c balance and/or you are unsure of the action, it may be sensible to step back and watch. ADP also came in quite a bit stronger than expected(+206k vs. +130k plus previous rev higher by 20k) and China cut reserve requirement for banks which encouraged markets too. Good luck.
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The information you receive is fact. However, how you interpret it is not, especially when you are interpreting a great deal of info on the fly in the heat of battle! So whatever you think might happen has a certain probability of being correct. The market tells you this if you listen. I like the point about being on your game. Sometimes for whatever reason we just can't get on our game. It happens to everyone and there's no shame in it. The key is to recognise it quickly and step off the gas. That's the difference between guys who make it and keep it and those who make it and give it all back in short bursts. If you're not 'on it' frequently, then you need to change something about how you prepare perhaps in order to maximise your chances. Last point re last hour. Everyone has a different style. When someone says something like this it's important to recognise that this is their opinion as to how it fits in with their style. Think about the point and if you feel it could help you, take a look at your trading data and if it looks promising, trial it.
