Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

TheNegotiator

Market Wizard
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Content Count

    3239

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

Everything posted by TheNegotiator

  1. TheNegotiator
    So far:- Remember Philly Fed and Leading Indicators @ 10am.
  2. TheNegotiator
    Today we've had a worse print on Initial Jobless Claims (388k exp 365k) and we have Leading Indicators (exp 0.2%) and Philly Fed (exp 1.0) later. Big one for earnings is Google after the close. Chart from yesterday:-
  3. TheNegotiator
    I was trying to do some work in excel on some data and came across something I wasn't able to do. The thing is, it's all there on the net but it can be a bit of a headache to trawl through. So my question to you guys is whether you know of or think it would be worth creating a resource for excel learning targeting the types of exercises traders might wish to perform?
  4. TheNegotiator
    Hey Greg, I certainly see where you're coming from. But have a number of thoughts. We've been in a wide double-distribution balance since 9/7(1418.75-1468.00). Any short-term topping in the current market could have seen enough retracement already given the width of the balance. Given the Fed, Q3 earnings (so far and to come) and the election, the macro context is telling me there is likely to be less willingness to commit by larger players with quite possibly a positive skew. Within the technical context of the noted balance I am seeing that the latest test lower was just that and that sellers here would be getting "short in the hole". The price risk within the historical action of the current balance is increasing as we move higher although taking into account the possibility of a positive skew, there could well be room to extend the range to the upside. The NQ is absolutely showing weakness in comparative terms however, shorts could be in real trouble should it get much above 2800. Markets are by their nature always building up energy for the next move in some way or another and this could well be the energy the NQ needs. All that said, we have struggled to move higher and currently the NQ is dragging. IF it were to tip and start to accelerate lower, there would definitely be some downside in the ES to come. It will be interesting to see whether ES starts to hug one of the development areas in the dd and see if that has bearing on what it does next. There's still much uncertainty out of Europe and with news things can turn on a dime (or a sixpence as we say in the UK). Covering a multitude of possibilities therefore makes sense to me as we can never always be 'right' but what we can do is be prepared when we're wrong
  5. TheNegotiator
    Forgot to mention that it's op-ex this Friday too.
  6. TheNegotiator
    So building permits (11.6% exp 1.1%) and housing starts (15% exp 2.7%) beat convincingly. IBM (3.62 exp 3.61) and INTC (0.58 exp 0.49) beat last night. BAC beat (0.00 exp -0.06) but again not way out of line. Notably KCG (Knight Capital) missed (-6.30 exp -2.41) (kinda lol :\ ) IBKR (Interactive Broker s) did too (0.30 exp 0.35) (lol). Crude inventories due later. Spain still not requesting a bailout and Moody's happy they are still investment grade for now. Anyway, here's a chart and we'll see if we like the upper development again today :-
  7. TheNegotiator
    Are you looking for just 50 point or so moves or would you look at say median daily range x whatever?
  8. TheNegotiator
    What tf do you look to trade ES on? Sorry- 1-10 days.
  9. TheNegotiator
    I think you have this the wrong way around. Buyers want to bid the lowest price they can to get filled and sellers want to offer the highest price they can to get filled. I don't know about the market maker. But don't they have certain quote obligations rather than specific trade obligations?
  10. TheNegotiator
    So what do you make of yesterday's action Greg? Has the pattern failed for you to think we're heading higher or was it simply a shake out before a bigger flush down to 1400 ish in ES?
  11. TheNegotiator
    When something happens out of your control, if you trade to your plan but lose money, you 'should' have peace. If not then there are certainly things you need to address. Like for example fear of failure or perhaps even if you properly understand the plan you've made. If there is something which makes you uneasy about what you did and you've strayed from your plan, that is another red flag. Can you stick to a plan? Is the plan clear enough? Is it a plan which really gives you an edge at all? So I would agree that if you have a feeling of unease or distress, it is probably something worth looking at further and is in fact a powerful tool to advance trading for those who are willing to listen.
  12. TheNegotiator
    The trouble is that with the markets and how they currently operate, "truth" is unknowable for most if not all participants. Trading is about finding something which allows you to tilt the odds in your favour and being comfortable with uncertainty. As to truth about yourself, well you posted the thread in the right forum!!
  13. TheNegotiator
    When you were a kid, did your parents or someone older than you like a teacher for example tell you to not run across the road, to look right and left and then right again? Did they tell you to not play with matches? Did you get into trouble if you didn't adhere to these rules? You don't need discipline once you are there, but to get to a point where your actions are automatic, my feeling is that you do.
  14. TheNegotiator
    I believe that the insights which psychologists can give us into ourselves can be extremely useful but also at times misleading. The thing is, to be successful at trading it takes a certain practical approach. Yes there should be introspective self-analysis. However, without discipline we won't succeed. If you decide to change something in your trading approach, it won't happen automatically overnight. You must work on it until it does become natural to you and this is where self-discipline comes in. Also, there will always be new situations encountered which we haven't psychologically prepared for. Study yourself in order to understand when stresses come in and create a routine to mitigate such circumstances, but then work on discipline in order to generate consistency of considered action. Not just on any one trade but for all your efforts in the business. “By three methods we may learn wisdom: first, by reflection, which is noblest; second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third, by experience, which is the most bitter.” Confucius - a smart dude.
  15. TheNegotiator
    I'd make two general points. The first is that we have Q3 earnings and the US election upon us and given that we are near recent highs already, I think that big money isn't going to want to commit heavily just yet. Second is that although a bigger correction could take place to entice buyers back into the market and create an "unfair low", markets generally go from trend-balance-trend-balance. We could well move into, or expand upon current minor balance over the course of the next 3 weeks or so. We could also break higher and never look back, break higher and retest the poor lows, break the lows to expand the current balance or break the lows and get a further correction. There's still a great deal of uncertainty in Europe and news could change things at any point in time. My personal view currently and this is not a recommendation, is to look to fade the extremes of the current balance. It being a double dist only adds opportunity. This view could also change at any point.
  16. TheNegotiator
    Fibonacci yes in certain cases. As a guide of IB expansion capability and after a strong move. Also look at the halfgap and session midpoint (amongst others) although clearly this is not really Fib. Harmonic patterns are not something I consciously look at although I subconsciously follow how the back and forth drives the market. The biggest factor I would say is context of market activity. Take a look at the e-mini thread in my sig for more and ask any questions! Just because it's about the e-minis it shouldn't scare you off. The premise is commutable to any market.
  17. TheNegotiator
    Probably because their connections are slow and their data inaccurate. Absolutely agree.
  18. TheNegotiator
    Vince I think the draw of the ES or other minis is that you can learn to trade on a small account without being crippled by one bad trade. Yes, you could hold a couple of ES 20 points offside with only $3k starting balance or something but that is well within your control most of the time. Metals and energies on the other hand can have thunderous moves for the under capitalised. I agree that ES can be tough but then there's always NQ,YM,TF to trade.
  19. TheNegotiator
    By learning to trade under the condition of constant uncertainty, are you not changing something?
  20. TheNegotiator
    and that's the key - how you use the data you collect.
  21. TheNegotiator
    Sometimes, although being greedy can be a good thing too so long as it's when you are printing positive and it's within your plan. Remember, people tend to run their losers and cut their winners short.
  22. TheNegotiator
    Fair enough. Worked out pretty well for you then playing the singles fill! I would have preferred an entry closer to 41.50 overnight session support though. Either way you got paid and the entry price you took could still have been valid if you took it after the RTH low had been put in (not pre-open).
  23. TheNegotiator
    Nice ...
  24. TheNegotiator
    Which price have we just reacted to?
  25. TheNegotiator
    I think most people realise the importance of looking at a longer tf and would also be doing so by looking at daily or higher charts. It's definitely important though to highlight that by using sound auction principles to gain context a day trader can really increase their odds of success.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.

  I accept