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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Britain is still part of EU. Nothing has changed as such from what I can see. Unless of course they break the treaty without full member consent that should remain the same. It's just the current adjustments he has vetoed.
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Today, PM David Cameron faces MP questioning over his veto on new financial changes to the EU Treaty. Mr Cameron said no because there were no safeguards for Britain's financial services industry(lol, you gotta love the irony!) which accounts for a big chunk of British GDP. London in particular is currently a global financial hub and a severe clampdown on the industry would be a big problem for Britain - especially if it was Europe and not the British government who are in charge of implementing the changes. Merkel wants to protect the German economy and constitution from having to up front more money for inevitable future bailouts(and possibly current ones) and Sarkozy I suspect more than anything would love to see the UK on a Euro leash so to speak. But political wranglings aside, is it good for Britain to be in or out of Europe? There is no current Monetary integration and voters have already been promised a referendum on EU membership. I suspect that being totally out might see the pound strengthen but I don't know. Britain contributes large sums of cash to support European Union. But is there a strength in numbers aspect to this? Well my idea is yes, but not when the numbers are made up of all sorts of different countries and economies with very different agendas. What do you think?
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I'd sooner trade without charts at all than have to trade using some traders' charts!! I think it's a good exercise although I wouldn't do it every day. You have to have a good memory for areas of importance and you have to understand the significance of activity which has happened throughout the day. I doubt pit traders even will never look at charts. Even if you trade off order flow, know the big picture is really important and so reviewing charts each day before and after is still important. Ultimately, charts can be misleading though if you don't know what you are looking for and you haven't set them up correctly.
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MM, Sorry, just to look at those figures you quote again. Assume you hit +2 points 60% of the time and -2 points 40% of the time. Trading 1 single lot in ES 10 times a day you would get 6 winners and 4 losers so net 2 winners and +4 points. 4 points per day at 20 days per month 12 months per year = 960 points per year. 1 ES point = $50. $50 x 960 = $48,000 per year. Of course then you have to deduct comms which could knock up to a quarter off that total if you are on a high retail $5/RT rate- $5 per trade x 10 trades per day x 20 days per month x 12 months per year = $12,000. So how did you get 22-33 trades per day? Did you use the round turn figure instead of the number of trades?
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Unfortunately, I think you're right. Media don't like no news and so tend to look to sensationalise anything, to the point of idiocy. Interestingly though, right now the thread poll(although only 10 voters admittedly) has zero votes for option 2!
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JTurner77, My thought is this. Success is relative and it does matter even if you have only made a few thousand $ as this is big for you right now. But the important aspect to focus on to gauge your success is not the $ in your account, but how well you have traded your plan and what the single lot number ticks you made is (i.e. trading 10 lots made 1000 ticks is only 100 ticks really, just on 10 lots). So ask yourself how you think you are doing based on the right metrics then it should take some of the pressure away
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Yup, switched yesterday. But you probably could've waited until today.
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Although we reached 1224 nearly yesterday(which was the important 29.75 before roll), I suspect that actually the downside divide to close the gap is going to be at 1217.75 or there abouts. The large gap(1190.00 - 1223.25) actually was created by gapping above this price and clearly for the most part at that time the market was predominantly driven by activity(from the co-ordinated dollar liquidity program announcement if I remember). We are sitting a little higher overnight so far although moving lower right now. Michigan is at 10am EST and that can certainly shake things up. For me, if it can hold above 35.50 there's a good chance it'll try to take 24's out. If that happens, rather than looking at the 11/30 low 20.75 as all important, I feel it could need to test 1217.75 area as a dividing line in the recent balance profile.
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Run it on a minute chart using the full session length. So for example on ES it would need to be 405min for RTH session and I believe 1395min for ETH.
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Could be. But also I find that due to the vastness and non-regulated nature of the internet as a news/idea delivery method, you have to take into account the 'Chinese whisper' effect.
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Santa Claus Rally Around the Corner?
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in General Trading
Personally I think if there is one it could be that it's just erasing losses from an earlier pullback. But who knows right? -
Christmas 2011 is very nearly upon us! So what do we reckon folks? Are we going to see the fabled Santa Claus rally or do you think Christmas came early this year?
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Anyone notice how defined that volume 'ledge' was there? Kinda the same as yesterday but reversed.
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If anyone is interested, here's the live stream:- live ecb stream
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The concerning comments were that ECB wouldn't circumvent EU treaty by lending to governments and going through IMF is a legal minefield. Also that decision to cut rates was not unanimous. Plus a whole heap of other crap the market will need to digest. My view is don't try to trade off it, just recognise the volatility it may cause.
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Bini Smaghi was a guy who during the early part of Trichet's presidency would come out and say stuff in the media which wasn't especially sensitive to the market's insecurities should we say. He was(is until 2012 I believe) a member of the exec board of ecb which makes the rate decisions. He is also Italian.
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These crazy moves are down to ECB President Draghi's Q&A answers in the ECB press conference. Hmm Mario Draghi, sounds too similar to Bini Smaghi :rofl:
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I almost forgot to mention about the ECB being today aswell!
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Morning everyone! It being roll, my continuation charts have back adjusted now so you'll see a difference in price. What was interesting was that it didn't break lower than the 1238 area(1244 on dec 11). Then, although it was looking heavy, it did break higher to test the week high and pushed through a bit, but found sellers. Given all the news and the roll, I will probably be fairly cautious in my approach today. Some of the action was a little forced to me and so I'd like to watch what happens today.
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Thanks Spidey. I'll have to look into it a bit further I think before knowing for certain.
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81% huh? Sounds like you found yourself a goldmine. Maybe they were saying that they manage to take 81% of client's money every hour. Don't believe it. If you want to trade, go find some more money then be prepared to walk a long path to success. If you want to make lots of money fast, well maybe just play the lottery- you'd probably stand a better chance of making money anyway. Good luck whatever you choose to do.
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I'd like to see what others think about the phrase which has been used more and more recently. Anyone with even a slight interest in the markets has probably heard this phrase. "Today is risk on as stocks soar" or "We're very clearly risk off as flight to quality continues". What the hell does it really mean though? Right now markets right now are highly sensitized to risk due to ongoing systematic problems throughout the world. Some specific stocks and assets are seen as more defensive than others and so when risk is off, these stocks should relatively speaking outperform more speculative investments. So what is annoying me more than anything is that some guys have started using it as a replacement phrase for "stocks are up" or "stocks are down". For example, the stock indices may have moved higher yet overall it's not based on riskier stocks, yet someone might say "it's risk on today". Well that's pretty misleading imo. Anyway, does anyone else have any thoughts on that or any other phrases they'd like to complain about??
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High of day I was talking about. Not too bad. There's still a chance it'll drop some more though. But hey. Once you're out, you're out you know
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Buddy for your sake let me just point out that your stop is 1 tick above the high.
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Well that's something back right? When it approached 56/56.50 I knew it wouldn't hold I'm afraid. The action looked like it had cleared a bit but a lot of bids came in and delta did increase quite a bit. Opposing action didn't really have any chance of holding it and got steam rolled to the next level.