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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Maybe we should do a study on it
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Personally Josh, I hold much more store in 1 tick fails at extremes.
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you have to be able to accept you may take a loss. just remember that the back and forth trade in ES is generally 2-3 points in a move, so 2.25 points doesn't really mean much. the focus should've been on what it is doing rather than what it might do when you are in the trade.
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If it's broken out of balance and in a big gap trading void, should it really be dithering? Either traders are going home for xmas early, they are waiting for something or actually the selling conviction is less than you would think. In fairness, if OTF had joined in today, we might have tested say 1190 or there abouts. Who knows for sure though
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If that's true, doesn't that say that the bears are a little bit too passive considering where we are?
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There's a good chance now with that check of the VPOC. Above looking for test of open/low vol.
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Interesting though that we've still not managed to take out the VWAP.
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Well, it didn't quite manage to close the gap but it did test the right area I mentioned before open before selling off. There's still plenty of time for it to get back above yesterday's close or test 1198 area. Hope you managed that short you were looking for Josh.
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ZIBO might be catchier though
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Possibly yes. But remember so far we're still in yesterday's range. It's more than possible that it'll be a sell on open, but if that doesn't happen then there are some good places to look at a short on retest if we're patient. 1235.75 looks to be key on the up side if a rally can get going. 1197.25(/98) and 1190.00 are key test down side targets.(1205.75 might be handy to have in the back of your mind too).
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Just another thing to bear in mid when looking at delta. There was potentially a good deal of positions being rolled into Mar fully as shown by OI in the DB:-
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Important place we're at right now as you can see. It looks like this is going to be tested once again around open. This could well be a key, key day. Big selling post FOMC yet it closed above key highlighted area and back in the 9-day balance. If we move up, there could be some trapped shorts. If we move down, it could signal perception has shifted again(not that this hasn't happened a fair amount recently). Take a look at the chart for a breakdown of yesterday's action(major).
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Exactly! I am intruiged actually as to what the new features in the 10.5 beta will be... Before assessing yesterday, take a look at this longer term chart:-
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Nice reply to the 80% rule Josh with a study of actual stats! I don't suppose the OP will ever reply or ever even looks at replies(or indeed is the purported character in question!). Anyway, well slapped down basically :applaud:
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Great idea Siuya! Let me refine it slightly though. In addition to standard terms for things in the media, why don't we coin terms for when crap is written by the media(and various other people). For example, in the forum a classic is the "Noob-baiter".(or even maybe the "Noobinator" if they're really good at it lol!) In the media could be a "Keyword Clown" who writes an article. Or maybe there is a ZIBSO article (Zero Idea - Bull Shit Only). These three are especially common due to the proliferation of the internet and retail trading/investing. I'll have another think about some more mainstream terms we could implant.
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One more thing I should mention is that we hung around that low for a good while yesterday. So there's a decent chance that over the next few sessions it'll be tested again.
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I'm not really going to be able to trade myself today. So I also won't comment too much on the market either. But, I would say that 1238 area looks like it'll be important. Tested overnight so far and hasn't broken through yet. IF it does, target would be 51 area. For this to play out I would think it would be nice to hold above 32 area.
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Very nice Josh! You have already learnt. Maybe in future you can do.
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It hasn't really got anywhere interesting yet imo and the movement kinda sucks. Moves down quickly the stops dead. Volume accumulates, then it goes again. Right now for example, the VPOC has moved lower again indicating buyers are suppressing the move. Maybe 30-31 at least to test. But I'm not all that confident of that given the movement so far.
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Apologies MM, I must be mistaken. My assumption when someone says a system makes 2 points or loses 2 points is that this is the performance on execution. If we're taking about how far a market moves favourably before an exit is taken, that's a completely different analysis to what I understood the exercise to be about.
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The profile has developed a little so buyers must've stepped in to some extent. Not aggressively, but they have stepped in.
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Although that was a drive lower from open there, ES only took out Friday's low by a tick. Let's see what happens next.
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Very true Tams. But the levels of integration vary immensely and often based on short term political gain rather than sound structural ideas(imo).
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If you mean you are trading at market by "the spread", that doesn't matter. The example was you make 2 points or you lose 2 points. Not the market is printing x ticks higher or lower and so you would make or lose a different amount based on best market price.
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Double distribution day on Friday and we like those It basically mirrored the 2 main developments in the current short term 7 day(now 8 day) balance profile. This gives us clear reference points and suggests we are still undecided as to which way to move. For me, failure to take out 1261.25 today(or possibly tomorrow) after a strong up day on Friday would be quite negative. Then, it would be a 'look out below' for a break below 1224/1218 areas. The other option of course is we hang out in this area for a while longer.
