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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Just remember all of this needs to be carried forward into tomorrow given it's MLK day! http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/holiday-calendar/files/2012-martin-luther-king.pdf
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CYP, A chart might show weakening but doesn't say why it's weakening. It could be purely that people are waiting to play their hand for example. Weakening charts may suggest some sort of turn, but not always immediately. Balance of first week of the year was tested and resoundingly rejected. Given that it was set up for a sell-off and yet it recovered strongly by the end of the day, a sell-off without test higher might not be my favoured scenario and if that did happen, I would suggest a possibility of a retest at some point. Although it didn't take out 1292.75 Thursday high, it closed virtually on its high and closed above the 3 day balance VPOC right at the VA high. So we don't have a proper indication of sellers' responsiveness yet if any and from where that may come in. All said and done, anything can and often does happen. Having alternative views and being flexible in your thinking is in my mind the only way to deal with markets. Especially uncertain markets. Rightly or not, traders are clearly still jumpy to say the least over Europe. Olli Rehn's reaction over the downgrades however, looked to have touched a raw nerve. To me this shows how susceptable Europe is to a negative shift in market sentiment. If people get really scared again, borrowing costs will soar again and they'll be back to square one. The ECB's mandate has to change imo and probably its structure and make up too. But to say a Greek default is on the way? Well I don't know. I think that would be something the powers that be attempt to avoid at nearly all costs. The reprocussions could be extensive and deep. I'm not an economist though. I trade intraday. The thread is about the E-minis. So back to the topic!! Lol. On balance, without any really new information, I'd have an upward bias. Just remember though that all of this is opinion only and any trade you take in any product/market is at your own risk.
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Well time will have to tell on that. I think that in the end, we certainly can see the sell off as long liquidation. However, the manner of the rally back up has me think short squeeze into long weekend. To me, the price action on selling felt like the was buying into it. The kind of stuff going on at the moment though means that things can change very quickly. So we have to keep watching and seeing what the market does, with ideas to take advantage of different conditions as they occur.
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Well that's it for the week. Hope everyone had a good day/week. Not great today imo but there you go. We got a bigger range in the end though!! Lol. Have a good weekend.
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CORRECT! Lol. It really feels like squeeze one way, then squeeze the other. This pending rating stuff is screwing everything up too. Just way too far ahead tight now for people to commit. I am starting to feel like I'd be better off going away and coming back after mlk day. I may take a look back at around 2/2:30pm then make the call.
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Everyone having fun today?
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Does this movement remind anyone of anything?
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There's your 75.50's on the money Josh! Let's see if there's any reaction or if that was just profit taking at a good level.
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Yeah maybe. It needs to take out 78.75 soon though if we're to move lower without a rotation higher first. **News on Greece**
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Pressure is really building up here imo!
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Just be careful everyone. This market could go nuts at some point!!!
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Michigan stronger at 74
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sorry michigan is now 9:55et
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Good trading to you too Josh! Nice honesty on the loss. You could be right on the upside. But it could also happen by dumping today and finding much stronger responsive buying much lower. So the day would still be quite negative potentially. Or we could just tank period! Who knows. What I am anticipating is a day with a bigger range than we've seen over the past few days.
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Regardless of what has been happening over the past few hours in the European session, things aren't looking bright for a test of 1300 at least today. Yesterday we made a double bottom to the tick and failed to make new highs into close. We formed a "hanging man" type candlestick pattern if that kind of thing gets you excited. More important than names, it did show lack of buying conviction and this is concerning if you consider how close we were to a test of that psychological 1300 mark. That said, anything can and does happen. We failed to push lower yesterday like I suggested, yet the information that it could still happen is carried into today. I suspect we could end up being more volatile today and possibly directional. Watch out for news, remember Michigan is at 10am EST. Take care of your risk. Friday 13th today!!
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I've heard people suggesting that the market is dead and volatility is gonna drop for a while. Give it a damn chance is what I say!! ES for example has only really slowed down over the xmas period. Even if it did stay like this for a while, it's not as if it's been untradable.
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Without meaning to sound facetious, eyes. Like MM said, a good trend is easy to spot. So whatever method you employ in code, it shouldn't be picking up on 'trends' which aren't readily visible to your eye. So I'd look towards bands and even the humble trendline with some sort of volatility slack built into it.
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Learning to trade well is not about making or losing money. That tends to get in the way of things in an ironic sort of way.
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Just stick to your plan stopwise is all I'd say. If I trade at a price looking for a reaction and it doesn't happen, I have to ask the question why not. Yes it could hover then tip again, but also, it hit a decent initial target in that main move down and is now looking for more sellers. If it can't find them here, it might need to look a bit higher. Nothing certain, just working through the logic.
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I forgot to mention that given opening type(regardless of type, what it actually did), there could be a further move lower at some point as it was quite confident(and responsive) in its selling. That is of course unless we get above say 88.25(ideally wouldn't take 86.75).
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It's been struggling at that 85 o/n low for 25mins now. Next interesting price will likely be the mid-point I'd imagine.
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Lol. No worries! Drew this fibo from high to 80.75 on a different chart just before 2nd push on 86.50. Funny how things line up before they actually happen...
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Ah okay. OTD = Open-Test-Drive
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I was really asking if you had a reason for buying 84's specifically, other than the current activity. What determined the fact that you wanted to buy at that price?
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Move completed as I was doing picture!!!Damn it. lol. Here it is either way tho. Just a shame I was distracted at 89.50.
