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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Forgot to mention 2moro is op-ex friday
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No, I don't hate them at all. Often they are very useful on UST(ultra-short timeframes) to define moves imo and therefore reversal risk. I find that most don't have a mechanical way to apply them though and so people end up looking for them where they do not exist(or are weak). We'll have to just see what happens at the open though. I think the inference is that a VPOC shift can mean either a reversal is imminent OR the market is resting prior to further price exploration in the same direction.
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Your posts have been useful so far! Here's a chart for all. Shows the market reversing from 7.50 then taking it out. Yesterday most likely was initiative given it's strength. Note however, it is "stair stepping" at the moment i.e. it moves, then balances, then moves in pretty short-term cycles. To me this is not as convincing as it could be. Nonetheless, the movement is there and we are in price discovery but just bear it in mind. Anyway, it looks as though we want to push for 10.50 and/or 17.50. If we get there by open, there could be a reasonable gap opened up which might be tested. Lots of releases in a few then Philly @ 10et.
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Yeah, the ol' overnight level steal! Did you hold your last contract to 1304?
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This thought came to me recently and I couldn't help but wonder. Whilst there are some traders who have just the 'right' temperament for trading(or for trading their style), many have to adapt and temper their personalities in order to succeed. Questions arising from this thought are plentiful, but here are a few:- Is a trader who is 'naturally' suited to trading better off in the long run? How deeply do new traders generally experience anguish and what is their general tolerance level? Does a trader have to break in order to become fully competent? Does anything really change anyway other than the trader having more useful experience? As the markets are in perpetually evolving, do traders experience the same thing over and over? It's an interesting philosophical debate that could be applied to our lives in general. I think you can see where I am going with this though. The ability to learn but then crucially observe change and continually adapt is the key to long term survival imho. What do you guys think?
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Just think this way- it isn't your money anyway and it certainly isn't under your control(in your account) until the trade is over. By taking it off early or before you have a good reason to, you're probably killing your average.
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It's a shame you didn't hold on for longer, but without scaling it's hard to do so. We haven't exactly been free flowing since the original move up either.
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The thread is for e-mini trading. Discussing market moves is useful, just don't purely state your position(or prices you have traded). We had a thread like that before and it was rubbish quite frankly!
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Btw we have just bounced of the VWAP/38.2% ret area fyi.
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92.50 also falls at the pretty much the prior balance high from Thurs and is a Balance low volume price. The symmetry of it all is elegant at times.
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Lol. No worries. Where are you wrong do you think?
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Just for clarity on the Initiative possibility, I say this because often moves originate from close to the POC/VPOC of a balance. Normally I feel it's more useful to look for Initiative/Responsive activity on extremes.
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Haha, thanks. Not sure about very, but I feel I know a decent amount. If I ever feel I'm an 'expert' I'm in trouble for sure! Do you mean Open-Test-Drive or Open-Reject-Reverse? They are not quite the same things. Also, Initiative and Responsive activity refer to OTF or bigger players. They tend to move the market quickly when they see price away from value. In this case, compared to yesterday, the buying was Responsive. Compared with the Balance Profile of the last 5 days, it is possibly Responsive if you feel that the Responsive selling activity from yesterday was weak and actually the upper part of the distribution needed to be explored(developed) more or Iniative if you feel that value has moved ahead of price already, although you'd expect that the range to be extended to the up side in this case. While it hasn't so far, we won't know until either it does or the market closes within the current range and probably retraced a reasonable amount.
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Tom, if you believe 98.75 to be a key level do really think that the action so far constitutes responsive selling?
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Just take it for what it is though. In my experience, when people have luck, if they have flaws in the way they trade overall, the 'luck' is more destructive than anything else.
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It's been very directional so far today. One thing worth noting though is that over the past week or so the market is very directional one way then reverses and is very directional the opposite way. Just something to be aware of if we drop back at all if you do have a long bias.
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Very directional so far although still within balance.
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Was pretty decent. What do we do at 92.75 and will we revisit the low as it was tested several times(idea that selling fizzled out rather than strong buying coming in).
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Ninjatrader Vs Tradestation Vs Open Ecry Vs Anyother
TheNegotiator replied to Octavian's topic in Tools of the Trade
Depends what you want to use your platform for. There are features which you just can't get with ninja unless you are a programmer or are willing to pay money for the various add-ons via 3rd party developers or free code online. Ask yourself what you really need and then look at where you can get that. If you just want the basics to begin with, it's almost better not to worry about the platform initially and go with a good broker. -
maybe. btw, just take a look at the chart i posted again. look where the balance VAL comes in. might be worth watching if we get there.
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Agreed. It's a worrying prospect that needs to be averted.
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Yesterday was kind of good and kind of lame. Good in that it responded at the expected levels, but lame in the manner it did so. The thing for me today is that Friday rejected test lower and yesterday rejected higher. Move higher into close(from lows) couldn't hold back above Friday's high. It currently looks as if we'll be opening somewhere near the long term low volume area which also corresponds to current balance VPOC at 1288.50. More news please.
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Really not too much to add over and above my last post(last but one). Market has done(or stolen ) the move to 1300 overnight. See what happens on the retest of 1300(and the on high 1302.50). Good luck.
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Considerations for a Wannabe Trader...
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Beginners Forum
The trouble is Jennie, most people trade pairs(generally pairs are related stocks) or spreads(like NQ vs ES or 10yr vs 30yr treasuries) in the same way as they trade a single or outright contract. In this way, imho it makes it riskier. You have to get good entries and exits on 2(or more) products, commissions are higher(because you do more trades) and you trade bigger size to account for the smaller profit potential. However, if you trade in a way to take bigger moves over the course of the whole day(or week), then it can be a great way to mitigate risk. The really great spread traders I have known in the past, tend to trade around their spreads constantly improving the average core position. But this takes skill and practise-like everything else in trading! Hope this helps. -
Well first of all I'd say that this game is a marathon not a sprint. So patiently growing your small but live account is not something you should dismiss so easily. I'd also like to point out that whilst trading a small account may not make you rich overnight, it gives some legitimacy to your results. Paper/sim trading is just not the same. You can cheat, fills are generally better, you are under only a fraction of the potential stress of trading live. If you have a good system, trade it live then show people your results.