TheNegotiator

Okay everyone, I hope you all did well today and I hope you benefited a little at least from the thread this week. Have a great weekend!

No, I don't think you do understand what I'm saying at all. I am advocating for simplicity, but also suggesting that coming to such simplicity is rarely a simple (or easy) process. Nevertheless, it's important that views are clear so people are not misled as you so rightly pointed out. For the record, the YAFS comment:- was really just and attempt to point out that following anything (KISS or otherwise) without thinking things through thoroughly is not a good idea. It categorically was not in any way whatsoever suggesting that anything less than complicated trading ideas makes anyone stupid. Again the point was made tongue in cheek. Either way, thanks for your comments.

I think you've entirely missed my point Db. I absolutely think that keeping things simple is entirely necessary but coming to the correct conclusion about what should be done isn't necessarily a simple process. Your example of thalestrader's daughter I can only assume was made because she is either learning to trade simply and possibly effectively which is great. But I'd counter that with two points. One is that she has someone to learn from who has probably gone through a hell of a lot in order to simplify his own trading. Speculation? Perhaps. Second is that if she is young and this is more speculation (but if you will use examples without clarifying the situation then all anyone can do is speculate), but if she is then you will appreciate that the levels of psychological baggage from years of everyday adult life will weigh much less on her. Perhaps the YAFS comment was rather excessive, although I'd like to point out that it was said with more than a hint of tongue in cheek. However, my point still stands imho that coming to a simple and effective process for trading, for whatever reason is rarely simple in itself. read line 1 of op:

The other point is that there's a chance they will try to close the week on its lows. Re:steve46, the week's open was 26.50 too so that could be important.

An early red (or green depending on how you look at it) for the chance that either a bottom is near or in already:- I am not saying this means the bottom is in, just that it's worth noting these points.

Vertigo, We don't all have to be great at all market types. I think not getting flattened by this sort of day is almost enough in itself. Just because the market moves like this doesn't mean it's a great opportunity for everyone and in fact it clearly spells danger to many. The indicator fo such a move was probably Google and then what the market did. I didn't think it was necessarily going to do this but I had it as an option. FTX, I don't know yet what to expect. In the scheme of things this could just be a minor blip, a long liquidation day down to the lower part of the distribution. Given the election and earnings and Europe and the fact that we're pretty high already and that Google is a behemoth of a company I don't think that it's surprising that some positions are being squared up. If next week we power through the balance lows and drop below 1400 for a protracted period and can't retake it, that could spell something different. But I'm not too sure how far we might go anyway. In fairness even something below 1400 might just be a pretty temporary correction. Remember that we're backstopped by the Fed right now too. Anyway, one last point is that the same guys who get caught on a day like this also get caught on the rebound. I am NOT saying it WILL rebound, but you should have a plan for if it does and know what you're looking for before you trade.

Another thing is when people talk about sport. I like football (or soccer if you're american (or welsh)) so I'll use that as an example - but it's definitely appropriate to other sports. In football, there's always talk of how "keeping things simple" is really great and how "doing the basics well" can win you games. I absolutely agree with that. But most of the YAFS who bang on about it fail to recognise the years of work put in by the players and coaches to know what they should be doing. Which simple pass is the right pass? When do I shoot? When is it right to play it down the wing? Blah blah blah. What about all the technical work which goes on in preparation for the game? The amazing sports science like diet or movement analysis to help make players fitter stronger and less injury-prone? Is that simple? REALLY????

The problem is like with everything, people don't elaborate enough on the point. KISS for example is appropriate if used in the context of keeping your actions streamlined enough to remain efficient in your current activity having prepared thoroughly beforehand. Not doing so will mean "Keep It Simple Stupid" becomes "You Are F*ing Stupid" (YAFS for short )

Anyway, I hope it helps someone. It does seem to be a perpetual problem we come across though, which is why I thought I'd post a summary. I would point out that what is basically a trend day can end up turning into a normal variation if it gets so far and opposite activity steps in closing the market far closer to the centre of the range. Closing towards the extreme (not necessarily at) helps to define it as a trend day. Also worth pointing out is that the market behaves as a trend day until the point when it stops trending. This is a really big issue for guys who get run over by the trend in the first place. They're too slow to identify the trend and too slow to identify it's stopped.

Glad it's working for you! Was just and FYI and in fairness that was an area (ish) where a little support was seen. The OD down with delta was pretty conclusive though. What are you looking at again? 1400 ish?

You see this happening when a day like this occurs. People want to fade it. But the very best way to prevent getting stuffed in an ES trend day is by evidence based analysis. I'm not trying to make out that I never get it wrong or anything like that. Just that it's important to monitor certain things because fading a market like this before it's put in an extreme is gonna wipe out a good few days and just occasionally, it could wipe out much much more. So what's the evidence? 1 - The Open An Open-Drive or Open-Test-Drive can really give you an early hint as to what might be on the cards. I did point this out earlier. Given the location and the macro context, this open was a big hint. 2 - The Cumulative Delta When OTF aka "the big boys" take the market in one direction, the delta (at bid - at ask volume per bar) has to move too. Today it did and even after the initial move it didn't really recover. 3 - IB Extension If OTF are there and haven't done 30 points pre-IB close, the likelihood is that you'll see a substantial IB extension of more than at least 38.2%. This is representing the fact that these guys come into the market early and there is a persistence of activity. 4 - One-Timeframing An MP term. Means simply on a 30-min chart the high in a downtrend or the low in an uptrend is no more than 1 tick beyond the last 30-min bar. Simple but works. Sometimes the easiest and clearest technicals work when markets are really moving. 5 - Shallow Counter Rotations If the market is potentially going to turn, there are a few things I don't want to see. One is shallow counter-rotations. Today the largest has so far been 3 points. That isn't even worth getting out of bed for a bull. 6 - Lack of Counter Delta Conviction In a counter-rotation I would want to see a strong delta push against the trend. This means there are some big players aggressively competing for what they see as unfair prices. i.e. the move has gone too far at least temporarily. 7 - Any Rejection As with the counter-rotations and the delta, until I see in the price action a really decent rejection at a good price, do I really believe it's worth taking a punt that the OTF have gone home? 8 - Range Estimation Looking at the current volume, we're currently running at getting on for 150% of recent volume by this time of day. Even without this, clearly it's a big day. Big days recently have been in the region of 25+ points. So to me that means at least 20 points. So far we're at 19.50 but my point is that I have been looking at targets upwards of 20 points. That's why I posted the remark about possible levels below. Anyway, having some sort of framework so you don't get shafted on this kind of day is imperative to imho. Otherwise it can set you back days or weeks in capital and emotions. DON'T FADE AN ES TREND, PLEASE! (and if you did, please just see this post as a way to help avoid it in the future and nothing more )

Well so far, it's certainly has been a one-move day! :rofl:

Below looking at 36.25/35.50, 33.75/32.50, 28.00, 24.75 and 23.00. 36.50 is the low from 10/15.

1 TICK!! lol

Not really happening and getting near to housing data release:-

I'm watching to see if there's a 3rd push on the cumulative delta...

Google so far:- OD on the ES.

Just so you know, 43.75 is the low volume price right in the middle of the current balance profile I have and also on my long-term profile.

Nice one !

Google's (9.03 exp 10.66) early earnings release debacle yesterday sent NQ tumbling but ES held up pretty well in its high volume zone. GE (0.36 exp 0.37) missed today and pretty much all other earnings are out already. Existing home sales (exp -2.5% from 7.8%) is due out at 10am ET. Fed's Lacker is speaking at 12:35 ET. EU summit has agreed to put in a single Euro Banking supervisor next year. So the question for today is are we going to be stuck in the mud or is NQ going to drag us down? Given it's already moved I'd question whether it will continue weakness today based on Google alone. That's not to say I don't believe it can move lower though. Also there is the chance buyers could step in in the NQ and that could act as a catalyst for the ES to test the extremes of the current balance profile. My overall feeling is that we could well just trade around the upper development of the distribution and wait for more information next week. Watch for signs on open. Remember that Fridays have recently been 1 or 2 more days and keep your cool going into the weekend Here's a chart:-

One thought is that anything which involves routine and ritual could be useful to trading in that aspect. So perhaps some religions which have more day-to-day rituals could be more helpful to a trader.

Possibly. In what way?

Yeah it's pretty much nailed it since coming out. I wonder if the NQ was weak the last few days in anticipation...

I am not religious. I'm not actually even political except in the sense that I'm not very impressed with any mainstream politics. I'm pretty much an agnostic in both senses. However, given the types that pass through TL and the interweb in general, I am interested to see what people's views are on these topics as pertaining to how effective traders with certain beliefs and practises are. Do religious people make better traders? Is a Buddhist better than a Christian better than a Jew better than a Muslim better than a Scientologist (cough)? How about politics? Is a Democrat better than a Republican at trading? Does any difference depend on the core belief of the religion or political views of the trader, or is any particular ritual associated with what they believe particularly important? I would point out that this is meant to be objective and anyone interested in openly slagging off anyone else with certain beliefs should go elsewhere to do so. With that I look forward to some of your thoughts!

Strong philly !!