TheNegotiator

I think there's a decent chance we'll want to test yesterday's high again. Break and hold and we're off again, fail or fail to hold above and it could be a test of 1308ish- take a look at a 4day MP/VP thurs-tues.

I tend to find that when the market is moving like it is now, areas which should hold are taken out and move further until weak players relent. That's my feeling anyway whether it's orchestrated or not is an entirely different question.

Was looking at that too given gap close at 29.25 as well. Didn't take it as it was pushing there into 10am figs.

It really all depends what you want tbh. But if you want something which will last you a little while there are several options. Have a look at systems with sandybridge intel i5 2500k/i7 2600k -imho they are blindingly good value cpus compared to last gen i5/i7(overall). Caveat is that there will be some new ivy bridge cpus released by intel in april. Memory is cheap right now. If the system is expensive to upgrade memory, downgrade it ditch it and buy 8/16gb of ddr3 1600(really all you need) and install it yourself- 8gb is like £35 in UK right now. Graphics is not so much of a problem- just make sure the spec has at least two monitor output capability(which in 99.9% it will). Hdd are a little pricey right now due to a shortage because of the thai floods(still). SSDs are not all equal and a pc manufacturer will rip you off for a crappy one. My advice is comprimise and get a better one later. Network you should be fine so long as the motherboard is either p67 or z68 however I'm not totally sure you'd get that. If it is fine-intel spec has a better intel network chip(imo). If not, see how you go with the onboard realtek(most board manufacturers use them). Apart from that take a look at Speedguide.net for optimising your connection. It's a lot to take in I know, but don't panic! Share you ideas/progress on your search and I'm sure people will help!

Dunno about anyone else but I feel like I don't want to get stuck in the middle(of the day). Will come back later and see what the score is.

However, there is also that small build just above the IBL and then yesterday's high 24.75 showed some importance earlier.

When(if) we get there, the VWAP is going to be in close vicinity of the IB Low which is also low vol for the day. I'd be interested to see what happens. Reject and I would hazard a guess at new LOD, no reaction to clear break I would think would be more conducive to balancing.

I don't know about anyone else, but this attempt higher is not exactly filling me with confidence right now(not saying it won't push higher btw).

6k@ 20.00s and 4k@20.25s - someone has got to be taking the piss. Let's see Anyone have any thoughts on what we've seen so far anyway?

Looks like we're getting a little responsive selling here after failing the overnight high. Would point out however, delta is not plummeting yet either considering where we are.

What can I say. Don't fade the Fed? We broke higher yesterday out of pre-FOMC balance and if there's any retracement, there are some nicely defined areas to look at trading. However, we are looking like we will gap up on open both from RTH close and RTH high. There's less in my longer term profile up here although still some good points of interest. will have to change the start date if it takes 1350.25 out at any point(although the usefulness of such old data might be questionable). Anyway here's a plain old chart with zero annotations.

First off, sorry Josh as I'm late to this thread. So if I am repeating anything anyone has already said, that's the reason why! I think it's a very useful discussion to have and I'll finish reading/comment on the rest of it later today. Firstly, what does a profile represent? Either time spent in the form of touches for different 30min periods(traditional MP) or volume traded at price. The first is a proxy for time spent at price and shouldn't be dismissed as swiftly as it often is. Time at price gives and idea of balance imo because it shows that participants continuing (cumulative) idea of value is or isn't. If a market spends a decent amount of time going back and forth around a POC then it says that perception of value isn't changing. For volume, it shows where exactly previous trading has taken place. It is an invaluable tool for confirming or negating other points of reference. For example, how many times does an intraday low volume area form directly at say the IBH or the VWAP or anything else for that matter? Like every other tool or indicator out there though, people confuse themselves into thinking it doesn't work. This is because they often infer meaning from something that is not correct. This is certainly not a criticism of anyone or a specific endorsement of MP/VP. Far from it. Use what you are happy with and make sure you have sound strategy and reasoning behind said strategy. In the case of VP and in the particular example Josh showed(btw very nice clear video-good to see), in one instance VPOC shifted down and there was a reversal and in the other, VPOC shifted up and there was a continuation. Tools like delta and contextual understanding as Tom points out are indeed usful in determining the likelihood of one or the other. I would point out a couple of things however. Value is not the same as volume building up in my book. Here, the market tests the overnight low(amongst other things from what I remember), fails and pushes higher. This happened early on in the session and all relatively quickly. Look at an RTH MP of the day and you'll see what I mean. There was "competition" for price. Just below the first high formed(the one at 98.50), volume built up a bit suggesting people were selling here as people were buying. Time also passed and the MP built too. To me there was more of a question here about which way we'd go. What I'd suggest here is that rather than the 'building' of profiles indicating value, what was being shown was disagreement. On the one hand an Open-Test-Drive had many traders thinking a the test of 1300 was finally on, while on the other, sellers were willing to risk a few points near the previous day's high which was also at an important longer term low volume area just below 1300. One side had to win. One side ultimately was going to be stronger. In this case, there were probably more reasons for a break higher. When the test lower failed to take out the area Josh noted as previous supply, the balance tipped in favour of longs imo. Just think about the people who had previously sold there and when it didn't break, they added fuel to the move higher by exiting. Just there I'll also mention about OTF and "weak hands" in the market. This btw is why I separate the sessions and weight them differently. If the 1298.50's had seen a strong rejection and then the market had built with a VPOC/POC shift, then how likely do you think the continuation would have been? Last point. Where these minor balances or builds occur matters. The example happened right up against the key area just below the 1300's which many had been watching. My experience tells me that on a good number of occasions this can be the prelude to a break. Anyway, logic is the most important thing coupled with the willingness to adapt and change ones views in the face of stronger logic.

For trading you don't need a high end video card. Gaming maybe, trading no. What you need is a good and reliable internet connection to start with. Then you need a clean installed operating system that you dont piss about with. Then, if you are using ninja or tradestation, just understand that the more you have open(different product charts, indicators etc) the more taxing it will be- mostly it's not a problem, just when there's a burst of activity. Clearly this is when you need the system to be running smoothly the most. The other important point to recognise is that your router and network card(or chip if it's onboard) are going to have a big part to play in system performance. What pc spec do you have now? A simple suggestion for many people is buy a new hard disk, install a new copy of your OS then run the machine off this HDD for trading only and then you can leave your other stuff untouched.

The question that interests me a great deal is "Does a stable and controlled emotional state lead to success, or does success lead to a stable and controlled emotional state?" Think about it this way. You might think you have a great strategy and yet whatever you do, you end up screwing it up. Emotions run wild and sabotage your trading constantly. It's only when you learn to control these emotions that success comes. OR you have no success and you struggle emotionally. Fear, greed, anger etc. all play on your mind. It is only when you really attain some degree of success that actually your emotions fade and your success can then gather momentum. I have the feeling that it's going to be a mix of the two for many. Similar in a way to the adage that "Money, makes money".

I would reckon start out by learning to swing trade. That way, you keep your income and you can learn over time. Longer timeframe trading has parallels with day trading and when you are ready, if that's still what you want to do, move to day trading.

I felt a new thread for this topic is warranted. If not for interest and enlightenment, for pure argument!(don't get too carried away though lol) Anyway, here is an article which I feel sums my thoughts up on scaling out of positions very well indeed:- Scaling Article (btw it's just a random web article I found a while back) I'd like to point out that each individual is different and each strategy is different. If you have a strategy which either hits its target or stops out mostly, you might want to simply hit full size with no scaling at all. On the other hand, if like many you see some degree of MFE even on the majority of stop out trades, it may be worth your while looking at scaling out. Imo, while it may well reduce your profit for winners, it will also reduce your losers(and take a small profit from otherwise losing trades). Trading is about the sum of all parts. It is my opinion therefore that a more stable equity curve is desirable as you can then build your account better through position sizing. Anyway, read the article and see what you make of it.

Erm, not sure on that one Tams. If you're a discretionary trader and the market 'snaps' against you, there's a good chance you'll get out of the trade either for 1-fear(which we all experience at some point, weak or not) 2-stops being hit with increased volatility

and if it doesn't(even if it does), there'll be QE3 right?

fyi fed statement -------------------------

look where the VAL using 2SD of the profile comes in... and inc today the VPOC has now flipped to the other bulge at 1308.00.

Yep. Being able to weight different areas appropriately is of course going to be likely to increase your odds of trading successfully.

I have seen enough people who are consistently profitable who don't "know why" to make me believe that knowing why isn't the holy grail that some make it out to be. Knowing the kind of reference points which a market reacts to, identifying the auction structure and watching how the market behaves at said reference points is the important thing for me. Knowing is useful, doing is better.

Take a look at the chart below and how the prices line up(pity the VAH/L didn't too, but hey). Bit of balance going into the FOMC with a clear skew of volume to the downside.

No worries Tom. Glad you're getting involved.

This do Tom?