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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Absolutely. Although I wouldn't expect it to hold if it pushes down again. VPOC wasn't in the middle of a strong balance so has less meaning to me.
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Is there any reason really for us to stop at 1304.25 or are there any better targets? What should we make of the open and failure to hold 10.25 and even 08.50? Some pretty decent selling so far today imo. Broke mid post :doh:
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That was a poor read on the cons conf! 61.1 exp 68. Anyone notice how the 15.00 was touched just as the release came out?!
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Cory, It doesn't as such no. I wouldn't bother reading the thread from the beginning honestly. I'd say read Dalton's books for the effort(and anyway)!! The thread is more about daily application of anyone's methods. If they have value, it doesn't have to be MP/VP/auction based. But this is what we have at the moment. More later as we've just opened!!
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That's what I mean yes. It's fine, just that from an auction perspective I find RTH a useful session to chart.
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Out of interest Sobo, do you chart RTH at all or are you happiest with 24hr?
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Yeah, 17.50 is possibly interesting also given that it is low vol/on high. Personally, I'd think it possible that we re-establish prior value as upper extreme(29.75) looks to have already been made for the minute. However, it depends on OTF and the type of opening activity we get. A drive up from somewhere around here could well give rise to new (recent)highs. Otherwise I imagine that the balance VPOC shift may be challenged and a reversion to 10.25 could happen again. Let's see!
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Yeah I was looking for a possible test of 19.50 on Friday. If you remember it was being tested over lunch Thursday and I think you went short. I think it could be a useful area to gauge the market.
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Okay so at this time, way before open, we have pushed higher overnight. Much higher(probably above 17.50) and we'll be in the low volume upper portion of the 19/1/12//30/1/12 balance. The question is, is the balance still valid, or is price lagging value? In the former possibility, an open towards the higher end of balance (at or near 17.50 would still be over 10pts from the high) would give better odds on any short position. In the latter option, the market can move fairly quickly and directly towards higher areas(possibly toward a test of 1350) before forming new balance. I've done a chart showing yesterday's action explaining visually the failed break. and for Sobo, a YM chart . Similarities here are obvious although one big difference is the lower volume of the upper balance from January as compared with ES. More trading was perhaps needed at lower levels before a move up or possibly we are yet to agree as much on value. Make of it what you will. There are some levels illustrated though.
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This is a rather hypocritical post considering that one, the post is a syndication from the author's blog and two, the author offers mentoring. I agree that many "gurus" are less than scrupulous. However, they do exist and will continue to do so. The trouble is as the writer puts it, "some unfortunately are horrible at separating fact from fiction until it is too late". This indeed works both ways and the less than discerning or simply inexperienced trader who is sceptical can also mistake their own underperformance using someone else's system for the system being totally useless and the vendor only being intent on 'stealing' their money. A free and foolproof system would lose some people money and yet it'd still be someone else's fault. So here's the challenge to anyone who reads this. Take ownership and responsibility for EVERYTHING you do as a trader. Trading is hard and trading evolves. If you don't understand the principles of a system then the chances are even if it works for you for a few weeks, the market will change and it'll cease to work. If you are the sort of person who wants to put in minimum effort, I suggest you'd be better off investing in a fund. Please think carefully and trade responsibly.
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Very important point indeed Steve.
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So long as what people write is relevant it's fine by me. clmacdougall, this is the power of auction markets combined with profiling. Tom called it spot on, yet he will also have had scenarios for a break lower. Everything is based on probabilities with all things being equal(i.e. no new news etc.). When a market breaks out of a balance area(like the one we've been in from 1/19 in ES, it can break further or fail. A failed break is as telling as a successful one actually. The fail here was because we had an OTD(open-test-drive) type open which tested the balance low at 1301.50(actually it tested 1301.25 which ended up the Initial Balance high). The expectation was for testing key profile areas between 1299-96 ish initially at which point we would gauge the strength of any counter rotation. As it happened, once those areas had been tested, the move up was strong enough to get us back into the prior balance and develop(i.e. build up trading volume) and then hold above the 1301.50 balance low which indicated that prices here were still acceptable. The shift in the VPOC indicated that shorts were being taken which fuelled the move higher after one last test of the balance low failed. But things aren't always as clear cut. Sometimes they are, sometimes they're not. This is why understanding the process is so important so you can decipher the auction as it occurs. This is what the thread is about and I am pleased with everyone's contributions so far. Keep it up Josh(who apparently is awol this week!!), Tom, Steve and everyone else who genuinely contributes and shares ideas! Thanks guys!
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New HOD(by more than a tick ) and we could see anything between 07.00-10.25, test 01.50/IBH again and quite possibly it will break and at least test earlier vpoc at 1299.25. Either way we could well be build up for a move.
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VPOC and midpoint now both @1300.00. EDIT: VPOC= read as VWAP (sorry)
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Overnight low, vpoc and vwap all in same area...
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Maybe true. However, IBH has already been tested at 11:16, so I'd be a little more cautious. I do think a test of the 1307 fri low is on the cards and possibly higher, although the move up is hardly 'thrusting' right now. Auction lower to excite buyers?
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Possibly but I would have targeted the 01.50 myself just because it is the low of the last RTH balance. 1207.00 might be interesting along with 10.25 later if we remain in positive mood. Possibly low in too. One tick off Jan profile high vol price(which is fairly minor from this month's perspective).
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Well, this is all a bit lame isn't it?
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Yep I had that and 10.25 as worth a test if we move up.
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Nearly there already! I'd imagine it'll test at the very least before close. Having said that, anything is possible right?
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Good point bathrobe. However, if you were going down the road of a self build(and I would remark if you have never done it before and don't have a good backup pc, it could be very frustrating and time consuming), the difference in price here in the UK between retail 2500&2500K chips is about £10 and you can actually get an OEM 2500K(1yr warranty as opposed to 3yr and no stock cooler) chip ever so slightly cheaper than a retail 2500. Basically though, the chips are exactly the same, but because the manufacturing process isn't 100% consistent, Intel(and many other chip manufacturers) grade the resulting chips. Many are disgarded completely. Others in this example become 2500 or 2500K or 2500T etc depending on their ability to handle voltage (and temperature). Thus, a 2500K is at stock speeds more likely to be reliable and have a better lifetime. Imho, £10 extra is therefore worthwhile. Either way, Intel will likely be reducing prices of sandybridge chips between April and say July time anyway to account for possible lower demand due to the new 22nm Ivybridge processors being released. If I were looking to do a new budget self build, I'd hold off for a bit if I could. Edit: I forgot to say that actually the onchip graphics core is a slightly higher spec in the 2500k aswell, although this still doesn't mean that it is particularly powerful!!
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Yeah it isn't great that it didn't I agree.But also they defended it. There's stuff on Greece supposedly to be sorted over weekend and if that happens then you know it will go higher. Plus, there'll be a load of people short who are stuck which will just add fuel to the fire.
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So the 1307.00's remain in tact for the day. Just to point out that on top of being the price I pointed out in the all sessions MP since beginning of the year, it was also the overnight low and the 7.50's were the weekly ETH open as pointed out by Josh. However you view it, I think should it break, there could be a fairly quick move down. That's absolutely not suggesting I do or I don't think the price is going to break, but my idea of what may happen if it does.
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Gotta take into account that we are in a 7pt range so far in the middle of the volume development. Anyway, gl and I'm gonna leave it there for the moment.
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Sorry. Illustrates my point about it being balanced(with slight drift lower atm) Also look at the profile and how flat the vwap is.
