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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Tom, if your reason for getting out was because you were in for a long time and losing focus, it wasn't wrong to exit. However, if this is the case it was wrong to re-enter. If you exit and it goes, then so what (imho). We all miss moves all the time and so long as you have a reason(market based or otherwise) it's all good.
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Here's a little update for anyone who's interested:-
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Absolutely, it's great when everything aligns like that. I don't think anyone here would claim it can as such. But the structure and reaction to that structure is indicative of more probable outcomes in many cases.
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There were a few possible reasons for why it reversed hard, one of which was nothing to do with any news whatsoever. The important point for anyone to take is that it did and it was technically predictable. i.e. broke below the balance low by a few ticks or so, then couldn't sustain the selling. A retest of the balance low showed contention, which ended up not lasting very long with buyers being more aggressive. A failure here had clear targets of somewhere towards the 2day balance high at the very least. So whether you were watching Big Ben, reports from Greek ministers or anything else, if you were paying attention to the market, its intentions were clear.
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Starting to get a bit screwy up here. Feel a break one way or other is on soon.
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dunno about others, but the way this is moving it very much feels like we want to see 50 today. still, got to see what it says it is doing rather than attempt to trade off predictions...
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If it does break higher, 42 will be the reversal marker(with a 40.50 caveat)
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It has shifted, but I'm not too sure it'll mean a counter move rotation. Very tight at the top of 2-day balance and right below the 1343 I mentioned. Danger is they push through and stops go off. just think how confident the market has been since failing on a low breakout.
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If you look back to 4/29 - 5/2 last year, the volume above 43 all the way up to 50.25 is not well defined. Let's see what happens if they push it through.
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Morning everyone. I have a simple chart for you with my idea of important areas at the moment(I forgot to add 1350.25/52.50). Big Ben is chatting later as well as Merkel. 2-day balance is highlighted and it's tight- meaning we will likely want to test out of it at some point soon even if it's not necessarily 'mature' enough to sustain a strong directional break.(imo) I know some people have started looking above for their long term profile already and I am aware of what is there. Right now I like the detail below if there is a test down with my current profile. Should ES rocket through the 52.50's I'll be looking there too.
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The future's price is the market's 'prediction' of what the price will be at expiry. In ES for example, when one quarterly contract expires at price x, the subsequent contract is printing a price y of 3 months down the line. Had the expiring contract been extended, it too would be printing price y. Thus, back-adjusting in this way does give a proper picture of previous trading normalised to the current front month(quarter) contract.
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Yeah I replicated it with just last 1 profile. I'm not sure why it does that. Bit weird but I don't think it's a problem.
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They match for me. Just check that the 405 is in the top box and 1020 is below.
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I think that was the day prior to good friday
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Lol enjoy ur knitting! Btw, with a fairly cursory inspection, the last time we had a non-holiday range of <= 6points was 4/21/11!!. Fun, fun, fun :sleep:
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This is a "do something better with your time" market(imho).
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Image of current 2-day profile. We're in the middle of a tight 2-day balance. Unless there is more news or a surge of business, I don't suspect much more for the day. You never know though
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What about the "what is actually happening right now" voice?
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FX is having a go at the moment.................
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Things should be put into perspective and that's what we are always trying to do as traders. As much as the market has tried to move up, as Josh noted vol is low so is range. It's Monday directly after the break from Friday. Most of the trading so far has been below most of the volume traded on Friday. I still would like to see test of 1339.25/.50 and then see what happens.
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Yeah. Below is probably (27.00) 1322.50. Perhaps it could get there, but we'd have to look at the implications if it did and then what it did subsequently. I kind of get the feeling the current high might be pushed at some point, only to move back down, although we are testing lower right now(albeit in a 4.75 RTH range).
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While we contemplate whether or not highs/lows have been put in, I thought I'd post a little chart. Since the beginning of the year, by my reckoning we are on our 4th short term balance breakout. I mean very short term and I've highlighted what I am suggesting is balance in the image. Each time, the day after the break has varying lows compared to the breakout day itself. The max at -7.50 easily puts the 1331.00 or 1329.75 prices in range. Interestingly though, each progressive post break LOD is smaller. 3 data points hardly means a thing, but it's interesting nonetheless.
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Although th 38.50s are the CST afternoon low.
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Possibly looking for a gap close/vpoc test I would think.
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