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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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So far then we've been back and forth with little conviction. At the moment therefore, what do we think OTF is up to if anything? edit: there's 3 possibles in my mind
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targets above if we move higher are 39's (current high/5day vpoc area) and 41's (yesterday's low) edit:just held the open there on first retest- needs to plough through that if we are to move higher soon
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bumping up against vwap, o/n vpoc and eth weekly open right now. also midpoint.
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RTH weekly open is the answer and to me that says it's in play.
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Did anyone also spot what the pre-mich low was?
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72.5........................
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where have we stopped pre-michigan? 1339.00 re:chart I posted earlier.
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michigan in 3mins. exp 74 from 75
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Btw Tom, I wasn't having a go at you at all there.
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Firstly, let me point something out here. If anyone pm's anyone asking them for a magic potion or special formula on how to trade, they need to take a long hard look at themselves in the mirror. Information based on the technical method of volume/market profiling is abundent. That's why I hope we can talk about what is happening and look at all methods and their value(or lack thereof). I don't especially suggest posting in realtime is particularly useful but if anyone wants to do that, it's just fine so long as the reasons are properly explained. Information about how to use this or other methods is all about and if you don't have the commitment to find it, then there's not an awful lot of hope for you as a trader. Please understand this. Once you understand the theory and principles of any method, you need to experience using it day to day for perhaps a good length of time to become 'at one' with it. Much of what is traded with this particular method is purely discretionary and based on experience. The framework of profiling helps to give you loaction and understanding of what might be going on(even after the event you can never truly say why something did happen). There are some things we notice time and time again which can then be developed into a strategy and there are ideas which we have to employ in each different situation. You can't just learn this from someone else. You have to see it and feel it. If you want to know more about profiling, I suggest the best starting place is Dalton's books. Read them and come back. Then maybe in a few months re-read them. Rant over.
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Here's how the market traded so far ETH around some reference points. Will we tip over into the lower balance or hold and rally?
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Fyi, take a look at the current ETH profile for ES and plot Sunday's ETH weekly open and Monday's RTH weekly open.
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Thanks Tom. Yeah, it looks like there could be some political maneuvering going on in Greek parliament. Who knows really though. Whatever it has the market on edge. Either way today we'll probably dump or rocket. Could see this being a busy day not to get run over. Of course there's the chance that we'll also do nothing at all if traders want to just step back and see what happens over the weekend. It depends what inventory is being held probably and then what the media pipes up with. Look for news stories to comes out just when it's about to dump for example. Anyway, will see how we develop into open and take it from there.
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Context is about seeing what the market has done and where in regards to recent and long term activity. I do think it's important to look at longer term activity for the reason that I believe that the very biggest OTFs who move the market strongly(and those trying to jump on the train) are more interested in these kind of levels. However, in many cases I realise that the information can be seen using monthly, weekly etc high/lows. Think about it this way though. What information does an intraday volume profile tell you over say a 1000 volume candlestick chart? Not a great deal. Sure you can see exactly where the volume is, but if you look hard and the volume candles can give you a good idea too. Plus you can get an idea of how the market moved which you can't in a volume profile(although mp does a better job). So why bother with the profile at all then? Because it's a simple method of organising the data so it is easy to read visually. That to me applies to intraday, monthly, balance areas and whatever else. If you use profiling or anything else for that matter to identify your areas(and obviously if this is the kind of way you trade at all), it is important to consider when you have a great area to trade that you either trade it immediately and are attentive in monitoring for activity -delta, TICK and blah whatever else 'helps' you(note a reversal type trade will often not show anything until it actually does reverse) or you recognise that you must give up ideal location and hope the market reverses enough to get you in at a decent price in order to 'see' if it turns and that you'll possibly miss a good few trades. The best reversal trades will hit a level and virtually never look back other than on a micro level(read:small volume charts 0-5000ish whatever your preference). What I see/hear alot is that a trader does some great analysis but hesistates too much with no plan. This is often the beginning of an awful day. They then get in at a random price with activity or don't trade the opportunity at all. If they're in, the ES being the ES many times turns the screw on them. Even more so if the reversal doesn't hold. If they trade it or not, pyschology tends to then become an issue. For me, if you see a trade, take it. The discipline is then to get out if it isn't working(and not to get all pissy if it subsequently does when you've scratched).
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I can think of one good reason from talking to a guy ages ago who does just that. System death. No system works forever and so if you are a relatively small trader(compared to a bank or hf say) you want to capitalise to the fullest while the system is working. It's not something I am especially enthusiastic about, but there are people who genuinely trade and sell their systems and they work to some extent. I wouldn't pay for one myself, but that's just me. There are obviously also a good number of scam artists who will charge a fortune for an automated system which just doesnt work. But if you haven't got the experience in something, how can you separate the wheat from the chaff? Anyway, back to topic.
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waiting for a vpoc shift before committing perhaps. still a little way off that though.
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Taking the last three days for a profile...
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It's up to you of course, but the the idea really revolves around talking about the markets currently to allow people to understand them better and have an 'enriched' experience for their screentime. If Gladwell reckons it takes 10,000 hrs to become an expert, I'd double that for many retail traders sitting there on their own with no peer group!!
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Makes sense to me Tom. I think that it's useful so long as it's current and explained well. Idea of the thread is to post anything current about either trades or ideas for market or anything and to explain it. It's not a thread continually posting long x, exited y. I don't think that's particularly useful. The other thing I would say is if anyone wants to (yeah right) post trades you didn't take or legitimately took and didn't work out -and why.
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Nothing major has happened overnight. It has balanced a little higher than yesterday RTH in a tight range. In context, I would say that this is anticipatory of good news from Europe. 1352.50 is my main reference above and 1340.50 below. News is news so anything can happen. They agree and it could go up, they delay and it could plummet. In the meantime I expect tests both sides and then maybe further balancing. One point I'd make(and I'm not suggesting this will be the case here or otherwise) is that highs are never made on poor news. Anyway, here's a visual:-
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In terms of "fuel", if that was just an over/mis-reaction to news, that selling could provide some for a push higher(if it can't sell off).
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We're a little jumpy then by the looks of things.
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bailout package meeting postponed until weds
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Greece news just then..........
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See Tom this is negative behaviour reinforcement right now!! Lol j/k :rofl:
