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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Sometimes markets are more technical than other times. When we're waiting for important news though, whilst remaining technical the markets tend to get skittish. It's opex week too. Just account for it and if you see a strong move, know that it's probably news and the market has therefore shifted gear. The market will disregard any of your near targets and then it become a game of chicken. Stand by and wait for the dust to settle. It's either that or don't trade the market until any news comes out. I don't try to do both. I know some people do though.
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Lol. That we did Tom, that we did!
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Four Key Principles for Trading?
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Trading Psychology
Certainly an interesting point although I would add it might apply more to some products than other-but that is a different topic -
So it looks to me right now that the midpoint/vwap at 44 is the mark.
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Yeah on the yest VPOC, but also it wasn't well defined although 49 is a level-ish anyway. I'm thinking above 47.50 and it might just run on to test 52.50. But I closed my position at 45.75 anyhow on the first test higher (46.25) just gone. Lunch and lack of ability for them to force it made me get out. Could end up being wrong, but then on different timeframes we are all, always wrong right?
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here's a little chart update just for interest:-
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We are in OPEX week so without clear direction, price action could be a little spicy. Or not, but it's worth remembering. If you look at the balance profile, there is low volume at 47.50 which also ties in with a low vol area from yesterday. That would be my first ref above 46.25. Maybe Josh could give us an update on volume stats?
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Btw, just to be clear, I am just talking up my own position :rofl: cough sorry:doh:
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give anyone who shorted around 44.25 a sniff then tear it away from them?
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Just a note on order book here. You see this fairly frequently for anyone who is looking at ES. Order book fills up, then there is this 'forcing' action which doesnt really stop until objectives are met/caught traders capitulate. My guess here is 'they' were trying to make it look like a turn from 44.25 again, get a load of shorts in, then force it through. All conjecture mind
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41.50 is a decent balance low vol price though and the price action down there suggested at least temporary low. Above 44.25 wouldn't be good for short positions I'd say aswell.
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and apparently it works fine on another chart, so it may be the chart which is corrupted...
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only seems to be an issue with my eth chart
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show data window comes up blank
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Yesterday was pretty lame from the looks of things. No great concensus on value(profile not well defined) and efforts to test the 52.50 low volume price just weren't there. Moody's EU downgrades etc. and crappy Retail Sales read has us opening lower although above 1341.50. Break here and then the important test of balance VPOC at 39.25 is next. A failure to hold could see sellers gather strength for a test of the balance low at 31.75(and then 29.75). However, if we fail to get below 41.50, imho the move lower will be in doubt and this could fuel a move higher at least in the short term. Not rocket science, just considered reasoning.(and it'll probably be wrong anyway. lol!)
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Josh, are you on beta 8 still? I moved to 9 and just left the value area problem as it shows correctly for my mp vp chart. However, it looks as though the show data feature on the profiles has a bug. Take a look if you have the chance. Cheers!
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Josh, I agree with the premise that the close of any particular tf bar has no real importance in isolation. I believe the highs and lows of any particular tf bar have little real importance in isolation other than for activity based extremes. The one thing I would say(and I think this is what Siuya mentioned) is that in the context of a move and flow of said move which is being monitored using a specific tf(time,vol, or range etc), it is the act of closing which is impotant as it completes the bar. Then, the activity can be properly assessed. Think about this. If a market is strongly trending up and in the first 5mins it does 50 ticks, then 60, then 35, 28 then in the 3rd minute of the current bar it's only done 10, does that automatically mean that the trend is reversing and you should go short? No, of course not. So my point is that from a price structure perspective, the close of a 5min bar isn't necessarily important, yet from a flow perspective it is. Just a thought.
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Published does not necessarily equal good. Good does not necessarily mean anyone can be successful with the method. Trading for 20 years I'd have thought you have some pretty good ideas of your own by now? Either way, parting with cash for indicators/systems and the like isn't somethings I'd think to be a good idea unless you make good money already. Paying for systems is not going to turn a bad trader into a good one.(not saying that this is applicable to you or not). Just a suggestion, but if you know what you want why don't you find a programmer and get them to write some code for you on Ninja(or another platform)? Easy and it could be cheaper.
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A little book I picked up recently for a casual read presented me with a potential nugget for any aspiring trader. It mentions a 4 key principles for life, as put by a 17th Century Japanese Samurai. The Samurai is (I gathered) Miyamoto Musashi. The principles are:- No Fear No Surprise No Hesitation No Doubt With all the psycho-analysis of traders these days, I thought that these principles are excellent and far more apt to the trading than much else out there. Of course it has to be taken with the context of ability, but I believe this is a great way in which to practise trading.
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How are you all finding things today? I'm snowed under with other things right now so not going to be trading unfortunately(or not).
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Maybe, maybe not. Markets often "stair-step" up or down the overall bigger trend, so it could just break higher. Plus the channel I think you have there isn't exactly well established. Let's see what the Greeks bring us.... Have a great weekend all and see you here next week!
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Do you think we could see 1329.75 in the last 3 mins or is that just pushing it?!:rofl:
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By the way josh, take a look at your daily vol vs 20 day median now
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Hehe ..................
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haha, what's the betting we see those 41's in the last few minutes of trading this week?