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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Josh, the answer to than for me is that it really depends. In this case, there's no reason why a poor low can't end up an extreme for the day. That's not what I was pointing out. If you look we have a familar candlestick setup here if you're into that called a "hanging man". Coupled with the testing or poor low rather than a strongly rejected or competed for low with excess and you could well see a decent break there if it returns there again. That might be Monday, or it might be after we've explored a bit higher, or it might be way in the future. Who knows, over the weekend all greek bond holders might say they really like the greeks and so have decided to happily tear up all their IOUs. At the time, I agree that it looked like it would turn. If you think about it, that's where we saw the first signs of contention yesterday(or at least squaring up). So it made sense given the proximity we had to it, for it to be tested again. Thinking in another way and I know I've experienced this before, when you take a postion and it breaks against you, how frequently do you see price return to just where you are and then continue on it's breakout path? That's because other who took the position need to exit for a minimal loss too when it doesn't reverse and new trades might be placed if it feels like there's no interest in a reversal of the breakout. Failed breaks can be pretty hard in their reversals. So it depends always. Context, location, balance/imbalance of current activity, conviction of move, if participants are waiting etc. etc. If we could put a badge on things and say x = y then things would be easier. But it tends to be x might = y if this is happens or that doesn't happen. The useful thing though is always if x ≠ y it often means x = z. Anyway, it's Friday evening for me and so rather than ramble any more, I'll bid you all goodnight and have a great weekend! See you on Tuesday(I think I said Monday before but I remembered it's President's day)!
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I was talking about the 55's. If you look at a small volume chart or maybe a 1min chart you can see there was no rejection as such or "excess".
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Okay, I did a chart for what has gone on so far with points of interest. Remember it is fairly quiet. The thing is, a big part of it is that you watch to see what the market does at the areas of interest. It tests one side, fails, then tests the other. Or tests one side, breaks, then moves to the next. But much of the interpretation is done on the fly so I hope the chart is reasonably understandable.
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Midpoint, vwap and earlier vpoc all coming in around 58 here
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Fair enough. I think it's quite a personal thing actually with regards to how you see the trades as they print. Those are the targets I would have below aswell btw with possibly a test from above of 52.50 too. I anyway, it doesn't look like there's too much going on right now. just need to watch this current move to see if we get a lower or higher high.
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plus of course the vwap/vpoc we are bumping up against right now...
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okay after the break back up here i'd be monitoring activity and watching for the 58's (first low swing and wed's eth high) to hold on retest for continuation higher.
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Yes indeed. Take a look at a bidxask footprint chart. This way, you may be able to see the tape(in combination with a T&S- although remember the orders are unbundled anyway.)
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So as a possible consideration right now, you could look at the fact the ES has moved away from the 56.50 area as a potential sign it could test higher. If the 58.50 is taken(and I think we started testing just as I am in the middle of writing the post which is again why it's hard to post trading ideas while trading) there is a chance it will move to test the 62.25 area properly(i.e.it missed by a few ticks earlier). on any move higher, I'd be looking at a number of things but perhaps most pertinently the short term cumulative delta. A weak reversal on it and there could be reason to believe that others are not 'joining in' on the move up so perhaps it won't last. I'll try to do a chart explanation in a few. Just to point out, this is a trade I won't be taking. Not because I think it's not very likely or anything like that, but because I just don't really want to trade into OPEX holiday weekend.
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No. If you want to create a thread like that, it is up to you .The point of the thread is not a trade journal. It's to share ideas about the market and how it trades and what is going on. Posting live trades is nice and all, but it isn't useful for the people who are posting them. If you have questions, please ask them. I try to point out trading ideas now and again. I know Tom and Josh do too, as does Steve. But to do it all the time just wouldn't be good. Plus I think that it isn't actually useful for many traders who are 'searching'. They end up relying on others' ideas rather than their own. My suggestion if you really feel you want to learn this or any other specific method is read up on it, then apply it, then talk to others here about it. To me, that is much more productive. Are you interested in any particular method or are you still unsure of which way to go?
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Seems to be running sweetly. If you want to try it but are nervous, rename your current install folder and then do the install(you might need to release your irt license though before the new one will work, but not sure).
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I think there's every chance although we haven't seen a decent counter rotation really since the low. You could say one around 11am and now, but they aren't big(not that they have to be)
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How's everyone faring today then?
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Btw, it looks like IRT 10.5 beta 10 has the VA issue fixed!
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Morning everyone! Yesterday failed above important 52.50 then broke down back into balance. The fact is it didn't break below the 37.75 Tues low. Maybe it's just not ready to break higher or maybe it really is weakening. Here's a chart either way and remember, Philly Fed is at 10am.
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Four Key Principles for Trading?
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Trading Psychology
Frankly zdo, I just saw it in a book. The point is that if we prepare properly, this is how we should act in our execution of our trading plan. The more we experience and attempt to trade in this way(or practise), the better we become. If anyone else disagrees with this then that's fine too. It fits nicely for me though. Really? Are you saying nobody's doing this, or are you asking me to recommend a good one?(j/k) -
Four Key Principles for Trading?
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Trading Psychology
zdo, By "practise trading" I mean the continual practise of trading. Not simulated trading. The psycho-analysis of traders is now an industry in itself, I think you'll recognise. No Fear No Surprise No Hesitation No Doubt Of course all of these things should be contextually applied. Simply being a fearless, unsurprised, non-hesitant and strong self belief trader will take you down only one road should you have no clue about trading. But if you have a clue, a plan and are experienced, these are important ideas. No Fear- No fear that your well prepared plans are strong possibilities for the market to explore. No Surprise- As when a scenario comes along that you didn't expect, there were probably clues along the way(this is why hindsight trading is so lame) No Hesitation- When you have your plan, you trade it knowing you could be right or you could be wrong but you have to trade it to see. No Doubt- That your plan is a possibility for the market and given the possible rewards, the risk is worth taking. Anyway, I think it's a good approach for execution and can help curb those mischievous emotions' tendencies. -
I am looking at the RTH balance profile from 2/3-2/14. You can look at any balance you want to, but I feel this is the major nearby one. In it nearly 10 million contracts have been traded. If this is the one you want to reference, then the selling was responsive. If you are looking at the early morning range, then theoretically it is initiative yes.
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Because it was tested and tested, rather than being rejected swiftly with a quick move away.
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Fairly poor low and high so far- could go either way really.
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Although if we turn around that will negate it and possibly fuel a test of higher prices.
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Because it's above value. They are responding to prices that are too high basically.(that's the theory anyway)
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This is what you call responsive selling btw
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FOMC minutes later too
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Okay, so 1356.50 was a price I have been looking for the market to test in a while now. It was the back-adjusted electronic high spike from last year and 'signalled' the beginning of a move 300 odd points lower. We have done it o/n again lol. Anyway, the level is 1352.50 but the balance high is 51.25. If we test down here and hold, I would expect another test of 1356.50 on the way towards 62 ish. If we are out of balance, we need to see if any old(very old now) balances are acceptable.