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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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True, but at least in the example of that case they do know what they are talking about.
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Chop chop and chop some more. Ergh.:missy:
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Also, remember we have that housing data in under 10 mins.
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Question :- Does this so far look like responsive selling at yesterday's highs?
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Potentially if it can't get through. Btw, apparently Germans still denying that Greece 2 yr extension has been completed...
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Possibly. If this is the case what would you expect to happen around this area?
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(and most importantly - think beforehand too)
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Also, Spanish region of Andalusia requesting aid from Govt- more pressure on Spain to request bailout. FB rallying pre-market + Boeing and Lockheed Martin decent beats. Euro PMI and German IFO missed earlier. ECB Draghi said - falling prices biggest risk to price stability. ECB Nowotny said no need to move interest rates soon. Looks like it's confirmed that Greece have an extra two years to meet budget targets....
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I get the feeling that this could be a whippy news day. Who knows though, could also be that the market settles down in wait for FOMC. But to quote Mr Trichet, "we shall remain vigilant".
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New home sales and House price index at 10am. Then crude inventories at 10:30am. Lots of earnings out already and due after close. The important thing today is the FOMC at 2:15pm. Draghi is in Berlin talking to lawmakers. Greeks have agreed more austerity in exchange for more aid. And there's a 35bl US 5-yr auction due at 1pm. My view from yesterday is we had a pretty balanced day overall. The low looks more secure than the high and given where we are right now, that idea looks like it'll be tested sooner rather than later. Still time to sell off before open though and news can change everything in an instant... Overnight high currently sits just one tick above yesterday's rth high at 14.75. Here's a chart:-
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There are two problems which spring to mind when it comes to education in trading. 1 - People don't really understand what a trading education should look like and educators are not open enough as to what they provide. 2 - As far as I'm aware, virtually every trading educator out there has no prerequisites whatsoever in order to qualify for a course other than $. Think of good universities. Do they take anyone? (well maybe they do if you sponsor them with $ millions+!) A good education is a highly beneficial thing in any walk of life, but it remains difficult for students to see that and/or identify what is truly good.
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Brokers aside, if the market shows strength from open, there will be a good number of traders who don't get on the train and are waiting for a pullback. Often, this isn't possible for a while. But eventually, as the market gets more and more loaded in one direction, the likelihood is that the market needs to correct a little in order to find additional activity - the guys who missed the train to begin with and those who see that nothing has changed and therefore the correction offers new value.
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Looks like a potentially interesting read. -
Considerations for a Wannabe Trader...
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Beginners Forum
As much as it seems like it could be possible to build up from a $2.5k account, the very reason you have chosen to trade futures puts the account at risk. I suggest you learn the markets for a reasonable period before even attempting to trade, then trade simulated whilst building up more capital. That way, when you do have more capital you will be better place to use it well. -
How to Deal with Large Sums of Money?
TheNegotiator replied to Trader J's topic in Risk & Money Management
It depends. There are people or companies who chose like you suggest to 'spread' their risk by backing multiple traders/strategies. The trouble with this is trying to get a level of independence between them. I remember a big prop firm in London who had a lot of different traders but were they really doing drastically different things in the market? Apart from anything, from what I knew many of them were trading the same or similar products with size. If you're just a really big trader or even otf (other time frame - the guys trading as pointed out already, over weeks and months) then I guess your major concern is your ability to enter and exit the markets. Size moves markets and traders look to piggy-back on that size. So getting involved at price levels where there is likely to be enough support or resistance to get in or out without moving the market greatly or where there's likely to be greater trading activity is likely to be beneficial. Either this or you pay some quants and programmers to design some shit hot HFT and hope it doesn't do a Knight.:doh: -
Looks like an open auction out of range. Watch out if it starts breaking one way or the other...
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Big selling overnight from 33.25 (just below key 33.75) all the way to a low of 1411.00 (which at this point is a poor low). Some headline earnings beats after close yesterday and a mixed 3/6 month spanish t-bill auction already today and Moody's downgrades of Spanish regions. Talks underway right now to finalise 13.5bl of greek austerity. Richmond fed and Eurozone consumer confidence at 10am ET. Greenspan speaking at 12pm (?). Also 35bl US 2yr auction due at 1pm (i think?). Anyway, my view is if we hold below low vol 1417.75, yesterday's low (1416.75) and high vol 15.50, we could test 9's then below the the obligatory 00's and imo the probable magnet at 1396.50 area which was prior balance vpoc and the naked vpoc and close from where the last move up originated from. Above and we have some fairly obvious recent levels with some minor ones in between. Good luck and pick your spots!
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Things do change in trading whether we like it or not. If not the fundamentals of supply and demand, then the technology, the current conditions, system specifics, leading markets and so on. The best way to stay competitive over the long run is to be flexible and adapt to your current surroundings. Part of this is knowing what is going on elsewhere. The trouble is that there certainly is a great deal of information out there and much of it is either poor, the same stuff repeated using a slightly different wording, or it's just a continuous effort to sell you something. So I think it's good to check things out from time to time if something seems like there could be something to it. I also think to help with this it's useful to draw from the experiences of a like-minded community. A positive aspect of the internet social networking boom.
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I wonder if this thread gets the "Hot Topic" feature on the newsletter whether there might be lots of others willing to enter the contest?
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I think the issue was MM, that the NQ was just not having it!
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was going to post this :- Q3 Earnings Season To Date Summary: Ugly... And Getting Worse | ZeroHedge
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From "bigger picture thread" :- I think that although we sold off pretty hard on friday it still could just be a case of long liquidation. How much remains to be seen though. But the interesting point is that we finished right towards the low of the balance and that actually there was no rejection as such so we don't yet know if the low is in for the minute. The schedule for today is sparse and often trading after a big day leads to muted ranges. However, if the market is still weak people might not care. CAT reported and beat, YHOO is after the close. The overnight profile doesn't show a great deal of consensus on value although test below low of fri is a clear area of low vol and the high is low vol from friday and the high of the last attempt higher before selling off into close. An ETH chart reveals that there's possibly a case for support down to 15.50 area but that remains to be seen. Would like to see what happens on first test up and first test down.
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Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in E-mini Futures
Looking at the chart, although we sold off on friday, we did stay within the balance (low on 9/10 @ 1418.75). I've expanded it to illustrate the void down to around 1409.00 (low of 1403.75) from 9/6. The singles start below the 18.75. Although there are a couple of overlapping points, mostly the zone is thin. Above, I'd want to see a retest of 28.00, 31.25 or 33.75 hold (and reject) if I were holding a short imho. -
Special Theory of Price Discovery (STOPD)
TheNegotiator replied to alibaba5055's topic in Trading Products and Services
Hmm. I'm not saying that the guy doesn't know something about the market, but like others have pointed out here and elsewhere, there really is a lot of good information on the internet for free. The way it's been phrased, the guy has identified the very nature of the market and knows exactly how it works. So making money with his method should be a breeze right? But then why have a marketing website in order to sell this method at all? Why charge CAD 55? Without knowing who the guy is, buying one of his ebooks is a bit of a stab in the dark. There seems to be plenty of stuff on his website which you can read for free though so why not look at that first? -
Very nice! Did you hold any to 64's?