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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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I took it just above the lows on that action at 63's ahead of the week open/overnight low. Felt it was worth the risk as wasn't looking like we were going to get an exciting day- of course that could change. Out now (at 65.50)as suspected something was going on. NQ wasn't having it plus funny guy @ 1.3480 offer in 6E. Still could go later. I think if the high is in, it's bad news for bulls and there's more of a chance to correct. Failed break = strong reversal (often)
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see if the open/vpoc can hold...(64.50)
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1159 contracts on the offer @ 3480 is 6E omg!!
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Josh, have you got any vol stats for us? I make it around 76% at the moment.
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keeping an eye on that 6e(for those with futures only feeds)
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awesome 3pt range so far!!
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headline nhs down mom but only due to upward previous rev. so good fig along with mich. doesn't necessarily mean it'll go bid tho
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So the question was going to be(although posting the chart isn't something I seem to be able to do quickly) can it hold the 63's and get back above open then make new highs? Remember figs are due in a few...
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So far, not such a convincing open and right on the upper end of 4-day balance. Not too surprising given small o/n range and figs around 10am(9:55am for mich). What it does mean is that there could potentially be a good move later on (maybe)
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Lol, yeah I know Very true, although given that we closed on the highs, it's possible that the breakout has already begun(which originated from the 59's). The other thing to note here again is just how small the o/n range is at 6.25 pts again with vol little over 200k right now.
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Yeah, don't do that. It's probably what the older guys used to tell noobs before squeezing them out! Lol. No seriously that's not funny Considering the strength of yesterday I would suspect that there might be a push beyond 1365.75 current RTH high. The ETH high is 69.50. For this to happen, I'd want a reaction at 59.00, 60.75, 62.50, 64.00 or 65.75 depending on where and how we open. Like Tom said, we have a mich(f) and then new home sales early on in the session so it's possible we could need to see those before going for it. On the other hand, it could retrace somewhat although if this is the case, I would reckon it'll have a few of those longs from yesterday sitting uncomfortably. Interesting how crude oil broke higher yesterday too. A retrace through 108.00 towards 107.00(broadly speaking) might drag on ES, but who knows for certain. It's worth noting anyway. Euro is strong too at the mo. Possibly if it remains so today, they'll want to test 1.3500 I'm thinking. Anyway, I here's a number of charts to explain
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Before there was a little server hiccup, this was a chart I was going to post showing why the current highs are at an important area. Pretty self explanatory
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Agreed Gary. One thing I always point out though is that the markets often keep going in these circumstances until all the faders give up. The market is pushing and pushing and everytime traders try to short it right now, they are adding fuel to the fire.
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For longs:- Can we hold back above yesterday's low if we move back down right now? Can we then get back above and hold Tuesday's low 55.75? Can we then take the current balance VPOC (3-day) at 59.00? Can we move above teh 61.50 and take out the minor retracement trend high? Shorts likely want some reaction at or before 59.00 or possibly 61.50 by my reckoning, but it's clearly best to watch the market for what does happen.
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Okay so overnight so far we have tested both sides and are currently in the middle. Figures are out at 8:30 and 10:00am so we might try to break one side after. Anyway, here's an early chart for anyone who's interested.
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Gary, I replicated what you did with your chart and added a little. I can't say I'm especially keen on your lower line for the full daily chart just as I'm not keen on the upper blue line in mine. I think the point is here that should be quite clear to most, is that we are still well within the fairly tight upward trend for now. Any change to this should be pretty obvious when it does come along and at this point you shouldn't be fading directional moves as much anyway.
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Absolutely. People can read and read and read all they can get hold of and still come up short. That's because they are parroting authors to some extent rather than having deep understanding and instinctual application.
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Quite possibly CYP. Broke below yesterday/friday's low and now back in range so test higher is likely imo. However, that doesn't rule out a neutral day either.
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One of the ideas originating from MP is the idea of Other Time Frame (OTF) players and how they affect the market. They are market participants who have trading objectives on a much bigger scale and longer time frame than most- especially compared to day traders. An example of an OTF might be a fund. Clearly these guys need to move size when they enter the market and tend therefore to move the market. Although it sounds immediately obvious that if an OTF trades size then we need to be aware of them, there are important points to consider other than just how the market moves when they enter(or exit). It's important to note at this point, that OTF is not automatically correct in their assessment, but will in most cases move the market in either case. The importance is imo in two key points. Something has changed. Often something fundamental. The market moves heavily in one direction. It's almost like it stands to attention or the straighting out of a slinky so to speak. In any case there is more flow. When this happens, a trader potentially needs to adapt their strategy from a bracketing style to going with OTF. It can be easy to not adapt quickly and get run over, believe me. The temptation is that you see a price printing which before would be a great entry, yet now activity means it's unlikely to hold fast. This is often what fuels extensions to moves. The other point is previously reliable intraday and even longer term reference points lose their validity and so a trader should be more careful in their attempts to exploit them. So the next thing is how do you identify OTF? Well, I for one just have a feeling of when they are there. I know this is probably not what you'll want to hear. But it is something which can be picked up. If you use auction market theory and view moves with context, you will get a much better idea of whether OTF was present or not. For example, an unexpected rate announcement take place. The market moves heavily in one direction. Of course, we know that OTF is likely to be present in this case. But if a Fed speaker changes their tone say, to become much more dovish than previously, what then? Well you have to look at the move, its stength and its persistence. This also can apply to any trading day and how the market moves. Anyway, I hope you get the general idea about OTF and it'd be good to hear from others as to their views and methods for monitoring OTF activity.
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Big big potential psychological aspects. Owning your own plan is often harder for noobs if they follow someone else because there is so much detail that is never revealed to them(not necessarily an intentional act). This is why it's my contention that the best learning exercise for a new trader is to shadow a successful trader. Unfortunately for most, the opportunities to do this are somewhat limited.
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Phantom of the Pits Rule 1 - Time Stop ?
TheNegotiator replied to joshdance's topic in General Trading
Time absolutely matters. The reason for this is that if you put on a trade, believing that the price and timing of your trade within certain error limits are going to ellicit a profitable response from the market and yet it doesn't happen this way, all bets are effectively off. Anything can potentially then happen, but what does happen is going to be outside the remit of your specific trade plan. Of course, there's also the scenario that the day is much slower than you felt it might be originally. In this case, time then needs to be adjusted as a volatility variable just as ATR is. Here, the trade is likely valid for a much longer period of time. The key factor might also end up being how close it is to close as then if it hasn't gone in your favour, there may well be other similarly positioned participants who want to exit their trades. So like most things in trading, viewed with context, time is important imho as a gauge of potential success in an individual trade. -
Brief update for your consideration...
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Tom said it and I'll repeat it. Yes, if you are a trend trader. If you are not(and I would think many here on the e-mini thread are not), then this is simply untrue. In my experience, it is "the sum of all parts" that makes a non-trend trader successful or not. It's true that holding a trade for a big move is good if it comes off for you, yet unless you plan to trade like this all the time, even if it does work a few times, it'll play with your mind. That's why a good number of people use the method of holding "runners". This is simply put, a percentage of any given trade which is held beyond targets indefinitely based on activity. Anyway, last point. I think that there is a real danger of the inexperienced trader getting sucked into mixing different strategies "on the fly" without any real plan to deal with the scenario. It's very simple, but it can be destructive for some.
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Lol. I didn't trade yesterday after long weekend. Looks like we failed a test higher and closed pretty much on the 2day vpoc at 1359.75. That area and possibly 61.50 could be important today. If 55's are taken I think there'll be at least a challenge of 52.25. A move higher and we could see tests of 64, 65.75 on the way to testing 69.50, 71, 72.50. Need obviously to see what goes on early in RTH, but also there could well be more balancing to do around this area before a move one way or the other. 1355.75 yesterday was a poor low in that it was tested on 3 separate occasions. Anyway, here's a chart and good luck today!
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I think the problem here is statement of the obvious and no real substance. If someone wishes to follow up any particular idea with an in depth discussion of the topic I would think it would be more useful to many people(rather than people just thinking it is useful to them). However, the 'author' does raise a good point from a superficial perspective. Price action does, although not in isolation, help to identify market reaction. But here's the point. You have to know what the market is reacting to in order to appropriately assess the meaning of price action. The great thing to take away from this is that for those who are willing to do a little work looking around TradersLab, there are a fair number of threads which significantly flesh out these ideas. Perhaps the 'author' may wish to join in some of those discussions at some point.