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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Unfortunately steve, a chart with so many lines packed on it like that means absolutely nothing to anyone unless they have seen a methodology. Anyway, an idea to share with you today is a simple test of the lower end of the current channel we appear to be in. The lower channel support lines up nicely with distinct volume areas on the current balance profile and the overnight low has demonstrated an interest there too. I think there's every chance of a test there RTH, not to say it will turn there, just that what happens is important. Hold and a reverse to test higher prices again could be on, fail and the lower volume development in the current balance profile could be tested.
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Steve, The thing is that if a user is subscribed to a thread, they can get email notifications of new posts. For me, it's pretty rare I actually note who the user is and I just come to see what has been written. That is very much my point about the thread. We should all be talking to each other. As far as anyone making comments about anyone goes, well sometimes that happens. But also there are lots of charlatans out there and people are wary. I think the important thing for anyone is to write useful and informative posts so that it's obvious that they are not charlatans. I am talking in general terms for anyone here. From my experience Steve, more often than not your posts have been good. Answering questions and elaborating on ideas only serves to strengthen peoples' confidence that a poster really does have true understanding of what they are writing. So anyway, let us continue with the job at hand:- trading
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Sorry, did I miss something? You said you wanted to exit either when you stop was hit or 2mins before the release, so why did you exit 30secs before? Btw I think we need to use EST in the thread going forward so it's more clear for everyone. The other thing is that I also agree that it's important to "READ THE TAPE" as you put it. However, for any other users who might be interested in this, it isn't anything magical. It's simply watching the balance and flow of orders at specific points to see if the market is currently favouring an entry where you have identified potential. Either way, you might find yourself in a position where you had been on the right side of "the tape" and yet you lose. That is also important information though.
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52.4 ism -0.1% cons spend
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okay maybe not that high ~360k
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We've had a slightly better read on Initial Jobless already today, but it's important to remember that at 10am we have ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending due for release. Yesterday, although there was a decent sell-off, ES didn't close on its lows and the uptrend still remains. If you look at my chart, the thing that really stands out in my mind is the profile for the last 3 days and how the 64 area has become potentially pivotal. At the moment, we are closer to the 69 area although by open that could well change. We are also on course to show a high volume overnight session. Possibly this is telling us we could break either today or soon and possibly not. I would think that at some point today given the significance I believe 64's hold, we could well see at least a test of this price. But who really knows right? Anyway, here's the chart and good trading to all today
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Yeah okay, fair enough he didnt start talking at 10am but the report was released at 10am and this is when key parts started streaming down the newswires. It is interesting though that the Nasdaq had just reached 3000 at the same time, although if it were in the vicinity just prior to the release, it's unsurprising it turned from here. Think about it. If you were buying Nasdaq stocks just below the cash index value of 3000 and there was a big release due, do you: A- keep buying regardless B- slow down/cover a little and then see what the release is before acting more Whatever anyone believes to be the reason it sold off, the fact is that it did. This is the most salient point for a day trader. Personally, I wouldn't enter a new position at the time of a big release and wouldn't want to hold any position which wasn't well onside into it.
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Take a look at these as they may help:- http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/us-economic-calendar.aspx- select monthly view http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/economic_calendar/ec.pdf I know these have everything, but that is a good start. As far as what to include, well it can depend. You have some. At the moment, it's probably going to be useful to note down ECB decisions/press confs aswell.
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Just came into some res there at the first pullback balance and now formed a new vpoc. Still in the up trend of the move for now though and pushing through a little. Imo I wouldn't be surprised to see a move to test today's low volume/VWAP area around 1370 and then see what the market is saying.
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I forgot to mention that the reason it was pretty easy was that price action on the 2500v chart. Plus I always like to look at what happens after a decent move like we saw on retracement to 38.2%- which unsurprisingly was right there. But you could have taken it without the fib ret.
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Each to their own Steve, but I viewed it in a slightly different way. If you look at a chart, that high was made right on Bernanke starting to talk at 10am. Fade that if you like, but to me I didn't want to take that chance. There have been other chances subsequently including the 63.75's however, if you look at the chart below, perhaps the easiest opp so far(imho) was the short at the low volume from yesterday I have highlighted.
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Very tight uptrend there into Bernanke which broke as comments started coming down. See how it initially tested the prior session VPOC at 74.00 but ignored it. Next stop(if low is taken) - 72.00,70.75 and 69.00.
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Hi everybody. Quiet I see on the thread yesterday. Here's a little recap chart. Remember, Big Ben is at 10am.
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No worries. Anyway, write down exactly what you want to see and then post it here and maybe we can look at it.
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Okay, just so you know, going forward you need to post in English. I would suggest first you need to work out what you are looking for. If you know that, then perhaps we can identify a way of charting it.
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Well, the overnight volume is considerably lower than the primary session. In the overnight session, you might at most get 2 x 150k bars in the whole session. The primary session which is considerably shorter you might get 7-12 say. Basically, overnight you'll likely get a bigger range per bar and this could skew your MACD averages.
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Do you get the same result in different browsers?
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New members need moderating for their first few posts. As far as your vision goes though, am I right in saying you have a 24hr session chart using 15k contract periodicity and you are using a MACD on it? edit:sry 150k
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Have you tried it with urls other than your screencast library?
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No i dont get that message josh. What do you do? Click manage attachments then add the file and click upload?
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Well it had a flirt with the 65.75(65.50) as a high but blew through it to test Friday's high. If we make new highs again, then ask the question "Are we expanding the current balance range, or are we breaking out?" My mind would be on a break considering how it's moved so far, but we'll have to see when/if it does break. Main target above is going to be around the 1375 mark for now if it does go.
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Little observation for anyone who's interested:-
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So far we've tested the overnight vpoc(it built heavily here which is why I was interested- plus the earlier it is in the rth session, the more i weight it). Then, we tested what was 2/22 low and the volume 'base' of the test lower the following day. Now we're pushing higher post eco release(chart I did prior to release btw)
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So you can have a quick look at my chart, I haven't annotated much.
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Tom, Re:Friday's trade, "Don't be a dick for a tick" is engrained on my mind. I've said it before elsewhere and I'll say it again here. The closer the market gets to your profit target(as long as you will take profit) the more at risk your position is. When it gets to 'nearly there' by a tick or two, I'll either look to exit or if I believe there's more in it, I'll revise my target to the next level(and of course monitor it to see whether a push further is that or just a technical completion of the move). You can see that happen fairly frequently. Market gets near to exit, market stops just before exit, then market either A: turns around and rotates back or B: retests trend of the move and proceeds to blast through to the next level. I kind of like the way "Buzzy" Schwartz fanned out his orders around his profit targets although I have never really used it myself. But the premise being that you can never be certain where exactly a market will turn from. Anyway. I have a few suggestions on the fatigue issue. 1-Make yourself take a break. Truckers have to by law, why shouldn't traders too? When you do take a break, make sure you do something to 'reset' yourself and wake yourself up a little. Taking a stroll around the block for 10mins is probably good enough. You have to weigh the benefits of recharging against missing some of the story and the possibility of missing a trade. 2-Diet and exercise. Not anything major. Just not eating the wrong types of food during the trading day and doing some kind of fitness exercises. I don't know if this is something you do already, so it's just a suggestion. 3-Self awareness. Associations is simple psychological technique where you can create an almost automatic response to certain situations. If x=true, do y kinda thing. Could be if you are getting fatigued you always go for a 10 min stroll around the block. Or it could be you just put on your favourite song every time. Whatever it is, the recognition is key along with doing something to break the cycle early. These are only suggestions obviously and you have to do whatever works for you. Hope something helps a little.
