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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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I think you used to see flags more frequently in ES. I like them too Tom, but would caution anyone about looking for them. If they are good, they're obvious. Like you said too, they are better in a trending market.
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Tom, I've started a thread to chat about VPOC shifts. Going to briefly write about what it is so people who's never heard of it can understand then I hope we can have a good discussion on it. VPOC Shifts
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Discussing things on the Day Trading the E-mini Futures, VPOC shifts are a topic that are bound to come up seeing as we do talk frequently about volume profile and market profile. So, for Tom(roztom) and me and anyone else who'd like to join in, I thought I'd start a discussion thread devoted to the very topic of Volume Point Of Control shifts.
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There was lots of contention there at 68.00 just. We almost got a VPOC shift. If we get back there soon and do, that might motivate a few traders.
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I took the 68.50's short for a move to IBH and mid/high vol at 65. It did the IBH. It's not looking too great for the mid at the moment although I've not given up on the position just yet.
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Anyone buy yesterday's close earlier then or are we all done for the week?
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True, but it's not the instrument itself. I don't think the way data is rolled is ideal, but it is what it is. I think it is useful still though.
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It can become a little unsettling but I think if you are just a bit more selective then there are still opportunities. I don't love roll days myself in fairness. I think if it does move I'll trade it today, but if the debt swap thing puts a dampener on things, I'll not bother. On a different note, Apple's new ipad hasn't been well distinguished with its new name has it? Not "ipad 3", not "ipad hd", but "the new ipad". Poor SJ, he must be grinding his teeth somewhere.
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Anyone going to be trading today? Could be quite an interesting session.
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My own fault I guess, but on the other hand there is a bit of a wrestling match going on here. I ended up shorting 48.75 with a view to looking for 44.50 and 43.50 initially. I got out at 46.75 as it looked like it had turned. I should probably have held unless 48 was taken out, but hey. It reversed from the VWAP again and hit (less a tick) the 27.2% gap extension. Meh.:doh:
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Selling at vwap there. Needs to break down though else a move higher on the cards.
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A large gap down here is potentially a supporting factor for a top. However, it could be filled by session close and mean an entirely different thing.
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Look at the overnight volume too closing in on 500k
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Yeah true. NFP has me wondering, but big gap opens often follow through. We'll have to see though as not open yet. Possibly look at short at 50.25, 53.50, 55.00 unless responsive buying steps in.
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Today, ES is telling me that it wants to test the area just above 50 for a better gauge of trend strength. The past 3 days we have made lower highs(within that wide 2/29 bar) and lower value too. I discuss a little in this thread:- Time for a Top in ES? Currently we are still in the 11-day balance. Anyway, here's a chart:-
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I should note that in the 1st chart, the actual last 3 consecutive rth sessions with lower highs were just after the left red box. The box shows the first 3 in the start of that whole move down with lower highs each day.
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Over the past few days, the ES has been moving back down from the current highs made at 1377.25 on 2/29/12. The current tight uptrend has been in place since a pullback of around 60+ points in Dec last year. Now many people have been calling for a market top recently and so I thought it'd be useful to discuss the chances of this. Whilst this is a discussion about the ES, of course the same logic can be applied to anything else. Right now, I am seeing some signs of a possible pullback. Note that I said pullback not top. I think the distinction is important as I personally feel that the stock markets could be ultimately set to go much higher given the support that is so freely offered to them. I have done a couple of charts to help illustrate a key point. The first shows how until yesterday, the last 3 consecutive RTH sessions in ES to show lower highs were actually before the 60+ point pullback. Admittedly the ranges were much bigger at that time, but nonetheless, since then has been pretty much one-way traffic. The other point is that value or most traded volume in the same last 3 rth sessions, has been lower each day. Now this is not to say we are going into a retracement necessarily either. It's more than possible that we do move lower to establish a short term bracket low and move sideways for a time before moving one way or the other. Auctions basically tend to go:- Imbalance-Balance-Test-Imbalance The current move up from Dec '11 is imbalance. Anyway, balance can be short or not so short. The next chart shows possible areas of importance where the market may no longer be imbalanced to the upside and possibly when it may become imbalanced to the downside.(1350 odd and 1330 odd). The question is, what do you guys think of the odds of a short term retracement here?
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Yes. But you won't always be right anyway. If you know that more often than not, if a market does x then does y, then you have to trade based on x. You can only know that y recurred when it has happened. But you can only save yourself from the loss before it happens. I was actually in a very similar position at 59.50. I was looking for 63 area, but when it came down from 62.50 and then retested to 62.00 then 62.75, I took it off at 61.75 just before the 3rd high. The reason being was I felt it had tested the 63.25 "area" at 62.50 and other stuff was negatively effecting ES(NQ I think at the time plus 6E had reversed too). The price action wasn't great either, but then it did pop a few ticks before moving down. I could have been wrong in that it might have gone all the way back up, but the decision I made was to exit and it was for good reason imho. The important thing to recognise is that it is better to be decisive than have the market force you into a decision.
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if you bailed for the right reasons, it makes no difference whether relative to the market it was right or wrong.
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It looks like we have a VPOC shift down now too. I have to say though that I would have hoped for a better reaction. If strong buying doesn't enter soon, this could fall through the level to test next at 56.75 area. Mid and VWAP in the 63.25 area which showed support earlier.
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57.3 fact ord -1.0% fact orders, also greek finance minister comments coming out...
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There's also a gap close @62.50 from 2/29.
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Not too much to get excited about so far heading into the 10am releases. Factory order exp -1.5% prev +1.1% and ISM Non-Manufacturing is exp 56.2 prev 56.8. Fed's Fisher and then Evans talk at 12pm & 2pm respectively.
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True, true. Yet each previous test has occurred in RTH. It could be that it double taps it or that it has been and gone. Who knows for sure. What it is looking like will be interesting is whether the market takes out or fails at the area between 68-69.50 and possibly 71. If it fails, there's every chance of an RTH test which could be important. Edit:*Each previous test of 'channel' support
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That's very true steve. However, I was just pointing out it might be a little more helpful to annotate your charts or show somehow at least in some how you decided on your "nodes". This is what I try to do so that where I am getting my areas from is transparent to all readers if possible.
