TheNegotiator

I agree MM. I'd also add that simply, the market is vertical. Yesterday did indeed pause for thought, but unless we get a sell-off today I would think that higher prices need to be tested. 1400 is too close to act as proper resistance if momentum builds and yes they will probably push for stops above in the safe knowledge that the market is strong.

A bit late with this into open. Expecting possible rest. Boundaries would likely be singles/overnight low to 1385 up to gap close at 1401.25. Here's a chart.

Imo, the market wasn't moving freely as such at that point. Meaning the bids were racheting up. Strong selling into the bids without a break lower meant exactly the opposite. Buying was strong after that failed gap close, yet showed no urgency after the initial push higher. At the point you mention, the selling just fueled a move higher.

Let me know if you get an answer.

I noticed the same on mine too. Take a look at the cme site. Shows the same. Don't know what's going on as thought it could be a bug showing both h12 and m12 but no. Maybe they're showing OTC too?! No idea.

It means that lots of people find lots of ways of being successful(and lots of ways of failing too!). If time is important to someone then that is great if it works for them. If volume is useful for someone else then that's great too. But markets evolve and change, so the less blinkered we can be the longer we can survive. Anyway, back to the thread!

What is your time and sales showing?

Ah, that magical VPOC shift again. Anyone had any more thoughts on that for the VPOC Shifts thread?

404k rth. Are all your DST settings correct?

Unless you understand that you understand from mainly one viewpoint and therefore probably very little and that understanding is only one facet to being successful anyway, your success in this game is likely to be stunted. Learn a method well and use it well, but don't think that because your method has worked for you, it is the "right" way.

We haven't quite managed to take out the overnight high yet at 75.75, but failure to close that gap with responsive selling could end up fairly bullish. Here's another chart:-

Yesterday may not have afforded the greatest number of trading opportunities, but as a context day it is an interesting one. It ended up very close to being an inside day at the recent upper high volume distribution. The dwindling range coming into the FOMC announcement today means any break one way or the other, could be decent in magnitude. So far overnight trading has attempted higher. However, things can end up quite different by RTH open and often do. We are sitting close to the current recent RTH high at 1371.50 with about 30mins until open. It would make sense that it opens around here for a test of 71.50 considering ES's propensity for opening at or near to test points more recently. After that we might get a move in one direction before settling into a pre-release range. Anyway, here's a chart for those who are interested.

The way things are is that different people trade with many different objectives. Some trades are taken by day traders looking to capitalize at the most opportune moment. Some are by funds looking to hedge massive long term positions. Hell, some are fat fingers! The point is that knowing who has done what exactly, where they have done it, what their book is like and what their specific objectives are is impossible. The data provides clues, but only to what traders who have been recently active may have done. There always comes the what happens next which can only ever be best guess before the event. That is of course if you are really able to give your best guess every single time. So never create a situation where you depend too much on the data to make a trading decision. Having said this, traders of all kinds do look on a consistent basis for places where they can get in to or out of a trade with minimum risk and maximum potential for profit. So their behaviour is often very repeatable without being fixed. Can a VPOC shift ever in isolation even with say delta and give an accurate prediction of a market? I don't think so, no. Think about this. If you saw a massive delta spike when price was in the middle of a range, would it mean the same thing as if it happened after a period of trending prices? So the critical question to ask is what is the data saying in relation to what the market has done. Josh I agree that this shouldn't become a daily trading thread as I feel the Day trading the e-mini futures thread is better placed to fulfill that need. However, the need for examples to illustrate a point is still there. I believe Friday was a pretty good example of using context in combination with observation. Earlier in the week, the market had dropped quite a bit and then strongly reversed. Yet coming into the closing stages of the week, although the move at the beginning of the day was good, ES had not yet taken out recent highs. Given that the reversal had looked fairly confident(and in spite of Greece), when the market developed below recent highs and then we had a VPOC shift, it said to me that at that point, if the market was failing to follow through on its strength, then a good number of people could be in positions they needed to exit if new buyers did not step in. That was probably what that last little look up was in aid of. But really a VPOC shift is nothing more than a self-fulfilling prophesy. Think about it. It does tend to be something traders look for and so it can elicit a reaction when it happens. But it can be the difference of just 1 extra contract traded at that price which creates the shift. Plus, we are not taking into account the total volume of the distribution itself, just the VPOC or high volume price itself. So there could be an area that trades for a while and builds a lot of volume with the VPOC contained somewhere inside it. Then the market moves away and a tight volume distribution is formed but one price trades enough to form a new VPOC. Does that mean the same as comparing a VPOC shift when there are two similar total volume distributions? Anyway, I think it would be very useful to explore specific items such as delta on historical VPOC shifts but combined with context. We always have to try to think freely and be open-minded to draw new and useful conclusions.

You sold at 68.00 and exited at 63.00? Hmm, very well done if that is what you did. I think most people were aware steve, but I'm not pretending I knew exactly how ES would react to the news and frankly, I didn't care as I'd stopped trading by that point. You might say if there's an opportunity for a trade you should be there, but my point is i'd rather be sharp when I am trading. Remember, most people don't trade overnight like you do.

Okay everybody, I'm off now. I hope you all had a good week and enjoy your weekend!

Why do you say this? We talked about the possibility of this based on tech and auction basics earlier.

Hope you were okay on that one Tom. We finally saw the move to 1365/mid though.

Has anyone got any current thoughts on ES short(/long) term top right now as discussed in other thread? Time for a Top in ES? I think it'll be potentially very interesting if follow through to the upside doesn't happen + say 1350 goes again.:missy: Watching and waiting for now though although even right now, the lack of conviction has me thinking.

I suggest any "example" type material goes to the VPOC thread, but any specific current market discussion should remain here.

Context I think is used to determine probable cause of VPOC shifts, but what do they actually mean? If the market is strong in one direction and trade is facilitated, I would say that value is perceived as having shifted too. Any counter trend trading is therefore an opportunity for traders to add/position themselves with the trend. If the market has less conviction in the direction of a trend, traders late to enter the move are basically taking a position off others who are closing their positions/are placing reversal trades. The E-mini thread illustrates it well actually. I had entered my trade initially for a reversal, you had hope to add to your directional move trade on a pullback. So it ends up being about the balance between the two groups. At the moment there seems like there's nobody winning. This explains the "late selloff" phenomenon too. If day traders move the market up here, then there's a stalemate for a long time, there's likely to in this case we see today be more long positions than shorts which traders will want to close before the end of the day(and week in this case). Thus the market returns in the direction from where it came.

In this particular case we have today Tom, the reason I felt it could be a chance to reverse when it happened is the buyers looked strong at the time and then a flurry of selling came into the market when I thought it would move higher. It couldn't rotate any lower than the IBL though and with that context, I have changed my mind for now. Although again we are seeing a pennant style lower highs, higher lows at the moment. I want to see a probe higher at least though to gauge strength. The longer the market trades up here without breaking higher, the higher the chances of the late selloff being on are.

David, I think we can see that there was plenty of willingness from the market to explore downwards. The Greek debt swap deal completing has us higher again today. It doesn't mean that the top is out of the question either though. A failure to follow through higher could be seen as week if that scenario plays out. I would think that any bulls though would want a break higher in the next few days and also have the gap from wednesday to thursday act as support.

You know you said Tom you have a clean PC for trading, you need to somehow have a way of saving pictures at least. You can definitely do it (in IRT right click then save>picture) but would need to email it to yourself to annotate. I think the one thing that I've always with virtually no exceptions found, is that time really does play a massive part with flags. Flags are momentum continuation patterns and if they don't break in good time, they just end up not being useful. Although an over mature flag often retraces too, just as a failed flag is a very good indication for a reversal. Anyway, just a few thougths

It looks as though we might be on the "facilitating" side of things today. I suspect a probe up is needed to test that theory as that failure to conclusively take out the IBL shows strength.

A POC is in terms of market profile, the price during a specific time period being looked at which has the most TPOs(time price opportunities) against it. In short it's a proxy for either the price the market has spent the most time at or the traded the most volume at. The VPOC is where the market has traded the most volume at exactly. It is a suggestion of value. When during a session the VPOC moves to a different price, it is significant. In some situations it can possibly mean that the market is "facilitating" trade in a particular direction, giving rise to further distribution in that direction. However, in other scenarios it may mean that a probe in that direction has encountered significant resistance and a reversal may be just around the corner. Here is a chart example:- So let's discuss.