TheNegotiator

Yeah definitely we need to discuss these ideas more Tom. Anyone who hasn't seen the thread for it already, it is here:- VPOC Shifts

10.5 c3 is out now. Try this for when you want to change a chart a little bit. Right click on a blank bit of chart then click "Duplicate". It'll ask you to save it and you should pick something obvious if you are anything like me and have lots of charts saved. This way, you can play around with a copy of your old chart without the risk of screwing it up !

A little bit yes:-

Tom, what date are you using for your long term profile? I could have gone back further, but right now I am using 03/14/07 as it encapsulates that upper balance. Not sure I am too fussed about what comes before that.

In any way they want to. The point is that the expectation of being able to pay someone to get a short cut is not useful.

Come on, I'll sell you my secret to trading success for only $4999.99! It's a deal, it's a steal, it's the sale of the f*%ki^! century! Everyone is eligible(even a 3yr old toddler). Buy my system and make a fortune! (please btw if anyone sees this and thinks I am actually selling a system, don't contact me. I'm not selling a system or anything- just to be 100% clear!!!!!) Another thread had me thinking again about a perpetual problem that we come across in our forums and on the internet in general. A trader noob wants success and either pays for a system or pays for an education. But what bothers me is not that people are selling services of any kind as I believe we have demonstrated elsewhere in our forums that actually there are some good vendors out there just as there are some good used car salesmen and real estate agents(please don't take offense if this is your profession- it is a stereotype which I'm merely pointing out). The thing that perplexes and even annoys me is that there are people who seem to think they can spend a couple of $k on a system or training then they will be set and be the next gazillionaire Paul Tudor Jones style trader. No offense, but wtf!? I don't get it. I really don't understand what an individual thinks they are likely to get without very much effort? If say I saw someone with a system who wanted to sell to a bank or hedgefund, I could see the advantage to the seller of that system of it being mindblowingly good(not to say it would be). Think about it. Many people before they try to trade might earn say $50, $100 or even much more per hour. At those rates, a system that sells for $5k is the equivalent of 100-200 hours. Just for illustration purposes, Gladwell in his book "Outliers" suggests it takes 10,000 hours to truly master a skill. Go figure. Even if the system is good and works and is robust enough to be productive in the future, there's this "plug and play" expectation I just can't get my head around. People buy a system or training and expect it to just work straight away!?! Well maybe the digital age has kind of messed with people's understanding that it takes hard, hard work to succeed in general. What interests me in the mindset of a person who thinks it's a good idea to pay someone in this way(don't worry I have categorically no desire to start a training or system service). So, if you have been this person in the past or now(not saying it's definitely right or wrong) then I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on why you handed over your cash. If anyone you know did this then that also qualifies. Or even if you just have an opinion. This isn't a thread for vendor bashing at all, let me make that 100% clear. But it is one to try to gain a better understanding of the psychology behind the buyer in this part of the trading industry.

Nice one Josh. perhaps the exit wasn't the best considering, although if that was your objective then it was good execution. Either way it was a good entry. That final test on 88's was the convincing aspect- lower delta, test of earlier demand and then a clean move away. For anyone who is an aspiring trader, this is the kind of thing that you need to be doing to identify good trades. Then of course comes the skill of ditching poor ones, managing trades & exits and finding within yourself the consistency to reproduce these skills over and over again.

The reason I wasn't absolutely certain was that a bell was ringing in the back of my mind saying cbot had 15mins blocks for reporting periods. That could be wrong too though, or it could have changed from 30mins at some point. Not sure.

Fair enough. Was a near certainty you'd get it although 94.00's were available. I think that there is a good chance we could see 1400's and a bit higher, but I think they will want to gather some strength into it. A failure to break through wouldn't be the end of the world, but it wouldn't be great either. Failure at 1400 then break through 84's wouldn't be great(not necessarily all in one session).

Nice one but 1394.50? 1 tick above yesterday's high?

There is a lot of news flow right now. I'd suggest to everyone to be on your toes if you are trading!

I couldn't comment as I haven't actually looked at any of his methods myself. I would say I've heard the same kind of talk about methods which do work and methods which don't. I think the key things for people to understand if they want to pay for a strategy are:- 1) You must assess the method for yourself before deciding on whether you believe it may be good or not(most people will talk to you or give you a free trial if you are unsure). 2) Work out whether it might be a strategy which fits your personality and budget.

Hope everyone is watching oil!!

Most people lose money with any method good or bad.

Market just checking out those 92.75's at the moment:-

Yeah absolutely. I think it was available too every 30mins but could not be absolutely certain. Definitely a good point for the currencies.

I forgot to remind everyone of opex coming up

First things first, that is not what the thread is about. It's about discussing the e-minis and how they trade and are trading. I think that you need to see that if you have a stop, it does mean you get stopped at that level of loss for every loser. Understanding how the market is behaving is therefore important. ES may well not be for everybody, that much is true. Many people don't enjoy it at all and would rather trade a freer flowing trendy market. Each to their ow though. You have to find what works for you.

bojangle, may I suggest to just take a look at order flow at and around those points you have decided as possible entries. I think watching order flow all the time it is difficult to say the least and possibly not useful anyway. See how it goes.

Yesterday we did get the pause as suspected. Overnight has been mainly skewed up but within yesterday's range. Still unable to take 1393.75/94.25 area though. Philly Fed at 10am could well provide some fuel and there are some decent releases tomorrow too. Here's a chart:-

What would you think it would look like if it were "weak" at 1400? Right now, we'd had to auction higher to even get there, although that could change by rth open. I can think of a good number of people who would disagree with this. Are you thinking in general or at the specific areas you define for possible entry? That's your only area to trade in is it? There's a chance that you are just wrong in your s/r levels and how you apply/trade them. But remember, even the very best methods and traders lose, so don't expect that you can't be stopped out without being "wrong" using a method that is actually viable.

I think I have this right(or at least close to right!) but I remembered that Tom said he learned MP in the 80's, so if you want to comment on the question that might be useful!! Why is MP Graphic Based on Time?

It's because when Market profile was first devised, volume was not available to traders in real-time. It was reported every 30mins (I am not absolutely 100% on this so if someone knows with absolute certainty that would be good!). The profile was an estimation of volume. I'd point out that whilst a volume profile is more accurate in many cases, time is an important variable for many participants. If the market spends lots or little time in an area, that has impact just as the amount of volume traded there does. Also, the fact is that a volume profile does not show when a price has been touched and on how many separate occasions. This is all useful information. If you want to use MP with or over VP, then you can choose any length of time per TPO but it is probably best to use 30mins at least to begin with. Much of MoM is not MP dependent and is about auctions so it's still very useful imho.

I hope this is a very simple overview of your trade plan, because otherwise it's way too broad. What exactly do you mean by "line in the sand"? Do you mean that you will sell below an buy above? Do you mean that you feel the market will shift trend abovec or below? Do you believe it'll sell-off from here? I don't think you are necessarily wrong in saying it, just that you have to define what that means to you and how you are willing to trade due to it. 1400's I'm kinda with MM on this one. I think we are strong and if we test it then there's every chance it'll penetrate it. If it holds, that could well say something about this break higher and its overall strength and likely continuation. However, you don't mention whether or not this is just a waypoint for you or if you will be happy to sell it if it gets there. You already said you feel it's strong, so does that mean you'll only be looking to buy it or not?

bojangle, for someone here to help you at all, they'd need to know much more than you'd possibly wish to reveal on a public forum. However, I will make a few remarks which may or may not be of use and comment on anything you have to share in future. First off, planning is easy. That's something that's so enticing about trading. But when we look at what the market has done historically, we tend to ignore the things which would have been negative. Then comes the question of whether you are able to stick to your plan and take your losses. The next step is clearly whether you happily ride your winners without getting too nervous. This is a balance as if you are careless then ES will reverse on you and hand you a loss. Not good. My next comment is that of trading activity. When the market gets to your entry, do you have any specific method for judging its realtime validity? When you are in a trade, is there any specific activity which might cause you to exit? Then comes your point about break even trades. My suggestion is that you know when a trade is good or bad way before it hits your stoploss or even your mental stop in many cases. If your losses are more often due to these stops being hit, there's something wrong. Not saying this is what is happening, just making the point. Next comes the accuracy of your levels. If you are trading with a 2pt stop, you need some accuracy or you will often get stopped before the market turns. Lastly is context. Context of what has recently happened, macro data, other markets, what is developing during the day etc. Anyway, like I said, it's difficult to comment in anything other than broad terms and difficult to work out what is understood and what isn't. Either way, I hope this helps a little.