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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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A take on this. I wasn't watching, but these might have been my thoughts. Market gapped down and just didn''t have the legs to close it or even get to the 91.50 area. Wasn't surprising to then move lower and a number of us did take a short. The market then stopped at possible support at 1382.50, 8.25 points from high but only 4.50 points lower than the open. A failure to then get back above 89's gave shorts some confidence yet new lows were not put in. OTF shorting here? Probably not. So in a day that could have ellicited greater activity, perhaps day traders were the most active. No break lower in this case = shorts cover. Could be wrong but it's a thought.
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Hang on Steve, if the 2SD is likely to contain 95.4% of the trading samples during the day doesn't that mean that there will be extention beyond those limits at some point? 4.6% or 2.3% in terms of volume could account for say 46-92k and 23-46k. Maybe you were talking about price. It seems to me that whilst statistics can play a part, using them in isolation is not a good idea. The 82.50 also happened to be a low volume rejection point and then we did see a good reaction there. Combined, anyone going long or exiting a short had some good information there. Looking back, it was noted by others that the area might be a good one to watch for.
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Open, vwap, mid all around here. Would be sweet to get a rotation back to 84.50, vpoc shift then test higher.
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Some strong buying there took us back to IBL and we all but got the vpoc shift to 84.50.
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Looks like you could get you 81's here Josh!
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I think the new algo is called the "the hypnotizer", cos it's sending me to sleep!!
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Has some new algo gone wrong or is this really crap pa?
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What are you responding to?
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Btw, having said what I have in the last post, we are near overnight lows and below the eth vpoc. This could sell off further before responsive buyers step in- and of course it's possible that they won't at all. ACH
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I think there's a lot of use for the forum posts in that they are solid and are a running trail for others. Little comments here and there and sharing charts in realtime is much more difficult though. I think the market struggled on its highs last couple of sessions. Dalton would say maybe it's too long. So, this overnight swing lower will make the open interesting reading. I suspect, although would like to be clear that I will monitor for activity, that the open will get responsive buyers. How strong and to where would be interesting too. Either way, prices away from yesterday = motivation for traders. I look at my charts and yesterday's close, the rth week open, the balance vpoc, yesterday's vpoc and vwap are all in the same area. 1397.75-99.00. There are probably others, but suffice to say the area is important. Here's a chart:-
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Just realtime project/collaboration software
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Tom, you know what buddy, we all step out of line occasionally in the markets and that's what you did yesterday imho. You had some interesting 'other' ideas outside your plan and methods. Well you know as well as I do that the trading day is not about creativity. I've thought in the past actually, I would one day like to just have a bunch of traders who are very good at execution to trade for me. That's sometimes the curse of having a creative mind(or at least partly a creative mind). But hey, it is what it is for now. The thing that strikes me about you Tom is your ability to read rotations seems to be very acute. I obviously don't know for sure, but if it is and it's something you don't already do then you really should try to leverage that as much as possible. The trouble can sometimes come with ROTATIONAL TEMPO. The speed, aggression, frequency and manner of the completion of subsequent rotations can really throw anyone at times. Some traders step back when they see this change. Some concentrate really hard. Some switch to a different market. The other thing is depending on nature and volatility, the changeability of rotational tempo can vary. The market could be doing nothing for example but actually it's really nervous, or it could be that OTF is on the sidelines waiting to do its business later on in the session. The reason I mentioned all of the above is that in a "mean reverting" product like ES, rotations are so important. Josh mentioned before about having or not having a position can affect your perception of events. A guy I used to trade with, would always extol the virtues of your first trade being a winner. I think that what this all comes down to is being synchronised with the market rotations. In sync and you can have days like Josh had the other day. Out of sync and it seems like every trade's a loser. Most days we are somewhere in between. The trick is to amplify it when your sync is good and break it when it's bad.
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Quite a few things to say in my first post this morning coming out of the discussion you guys had post market. I'll start with current conditions, china and the composite profile. Back in 2007, I was chatting to someone who is acknowledged as currently one of the great prop traders. We were talking about ES and the chances the market would carry on up and up. This was btw before I really took on board MP/VP/AMT. I felt that it didn't matter that it was going up and that so long as it was, I was a buyer and that it could well continue to go up. Well, that idea wasn't entirely wrong although clearly the markets monumentally toppled not too long afterwards.:doh: I took that onboard as a lesson that I should be open minded and aware. The thing that reminded me of this is the albeit few recent late selloffs when the market is meant to be strong. I think conditions are different as the Fed seems to now be waging a personal war on $ amongst other ongoing issues. But it's the macro-awareness of structure that is important to me. I think we should start a sister thread to discuss maybe once a month the macro picture in the markets. What say you? China I think could end up being a big problem at some point. As strong as they have been, there will come a time when they hit the wall and it remains to be seen whether they'll know what to do(or just copy the stupid west :rofl:). China matters, esp when Big Ben is rabbiting on about growth and the like. The composite ahh, the composite. I agree Josh, but you need to recognize that like trend lines, fibonacci retracements, pivot points, moving averages and other such 'faith levels', people look at them. When we are moving out of recent activity(as you elluded to) you choose your poison and go with it. You might not be as aggressive with it, but it gives POINT OF REFERENCE.
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TheNegotiator replied to Mysticforex's topic in Forex
I think we need a "don't like" button. -
I think it just made another one of those things that Josh doesn't like! (upwards)
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Btw, this is not an unusual pattern:-
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Nice one Josh. and no, that's what I thought I said...
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Ahh, but he believes what he says. I feel better now that we actually went(sorry Tom). The ES really looked like it wanted to go, but Euro was not having it. It's times like these that then ES might give up and just test down some more. Not this time. Happy days.
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Bernanke apparently just said something to the effect of ecb wont print money to stop sovereign defaults. Euro doesn't know what to make of that!
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Sorry buddy, I didn't realise you were still short! :embarassed: It looks like it might be a defective button anyway!!
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(i've pressed that green button now Tom :rofl:)
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Nobody interested in it moving to VWAP/mid/yesterady afternoon swing low?(98's)
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nearly 1000 on the bid @1.3188 in 6E - that is big.
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I am looking to see if we can test and hold the singles from yesterday/balance low volume area around 1394.00.
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The thing that held me back from buying a retest of the 97 area was the way the VPOC shifted to just below VWAP at 1398.50-also just below the overnight low.