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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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It wouldn't be a surprising retest although it's also looking a little like they want to hold the open/yest low/low vol
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1393.25 was where it stopped this morning before rotating to 90.75 then testing 94.25. Same rotation now anyone, just straight through or even fail and revert?
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Anything can happen, especially short term. But putting things into perspective, it's month/quarter end and the fed has just started to hint of a qe3. Not to say we will not sell off, just that the overall uptrend is likely to remain intact. Of course we have to see what DOES happen though. I think that sometimes people can just get it wrong frankly. In fairness, there were signals that it could have been a good sell - midpoint not breaking, lower high and whatever else. I just see it as a profile which wants to be balanced to some extent. Does that mean it won't sell off? No. Does it mean that in this case the down side is probably more limited all things being equal? I'd say so. Shifted to 88.50 and back to 90.00 in the time I was typing my post!
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Yeah, it doesn't feel great at the moment does it?! Probably below 88's is where at least a few longs will bail. Hold 88.50 into 2pm est and take 91's(maybe 92's) and shorts will not be happy. (they just tested below 88.50 by a tick as i was typing this- not a bad thing for longs) Spun chart is just NQ/ES ratio.
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We have the VPOC shift to 90.00 now.
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Absolutely. Poor extremes are ones which aren't rejected swiftly and/or are revisited multiple times. If you think of it from a MP TPO sense, I find this helps(although it can still be a poor low/high and only single print if it's at the start and end of a 30min bar). The thing is, it doesnt mean that it'll get taken out in the same session necessarily, just that it'll probably get retested some time soon and roll over when it does.
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It's looking to me like if we get a VPOC shift to 90(only ~ 3k) this could be bullish:2c:
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We'll see soon enough I guess but this was the thought I am starting to get:- 87.25 divides singles in day prof btw.
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This could be interesting with that little move down there, but was just looking at the upward rotations:- and also noting the lack of any really clean selling move so far with small pullbacks(all the pullbacks feel like they are rotational more than anything).
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Honestly I couldn't say for sure as I've not been very focussed on trading today(that's why I asked you guys ). But I would have thought that there was good potential for a move lower towards the singles. Not really happened. Plus, the 94.25 short opp was quick so there could be some poor short locations out there. If there's a lot of shorts and we aren't moving lower and we are still in an uptrend, my thoughts are that the big potential would be up.
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For comparison:- (top = spun, bottom = es)
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Yeah I agree. But it's just as important to monitor for how effective the market is in moving towards that magnet too.
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BTW here's a 60min 24hr spun chart for those interested:-
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Stepped away for a few and it broke! It looks a little like there are buyers here but we 'want' to go lower. Does that ring true to what you guys have seen? If so, I would suspect that either 1- we see a break down followed by a sharp move higher, or 2-steady erosion of seller's control followed by a capitulation higher and follow-through. Just one idea
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82.50-80.50 is an important low rejection. I have 77 too, but will be watching this area beforehand if it breaks down.
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Hmm. My view is we are still in uptrend and most of the time what I am seeing is buying come in a logical level below the first level from market. Of course this is so long as there is no liquidation to contend with. If we were to get going to the downside, there are those singles from 3/23 82.50-80.50 to watch for.
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Are you guys seeing us as weak then?
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It looks like we'll get a test of that theory near open if we open up here. Very often the case recently that we open up right on top of a key test area.
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It would seem like a possibilty for the market to go responsive today Tom, but then nothing is certain. I think that given the way we are trading at the moment, there's also a good chance of us taking a breather today. So long as trading remains in the bracket on the chart below, that is a possibilty. Where we finish will probably be more telling.
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Oh well. Was this a simulated trade or live btw?
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Wtf is an open close? Lol our language must be confusing to someone reading it for the first time! :rofl:
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Btw if anyone hadn't noticed it already, we have been "one-timeframing" all day thus far. I suspect we need to "capitulate" before someone's prepared to step in and buy.
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An updated chart for anyone interested:-
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Yeah, absolutely. Trouble is that many things look plausible but it's important to separate those from what's actually useful for your trading. As far as lower targets being possible, well possibly. I think that it did look like they were going to turn it around back through the 1.50's and into IB, but the longer it holds below the more the chance is of a flush. 99, 98.75, 97.75 etc all confluence and then it be a lower target of 94/95 area. A clean swing above the IBL and I'd think we'd be heading for the 10's and tues vpoc (and current high at the very least).
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What are those lines on your chart Josh?! Lol j/k
