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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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So far $ has backed up a bit and ES found some buyers. Bear in mind though ISM comes @10am.
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$ is moving higher into open. See if that persists or not.
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By the way, I have noticed a number of guests on the thread recently and unless it's just people who haven't logged in yet I would like to point something out. A big big part of the thread is the charts posted by myself and others. To see the images you must log in. It's really easy to register. It takes virtually no time or effort. Hope to see more of you logged in soon and if you like, even contributing
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This morning on my first look at the markets, I had an urge to post some preliminary thoughts about it. So, I took a screenshot and contemplated for a while, then annotated a little and was about to post. This illustrates well how it's difficult to post ideas when the market is moving. We have sold lower in between, making my analysis look like it's in hindsight(at least to some extent). You'll have to take my word for it that I was not watching the market at all!!! The thing I was going to point out was that these were my thoughts WAY before market open and so my views could easily change in the meantime. This is why often I try to leave my open post until closer to the open. Anyway, simply put, while the market was higher on Friday after breaking higher on Thursday, Thursday's low was poor and despite the move back up after selling initially on Friday, it wasn't exactly strong in the end. Does this mean today we'll sell off and test 86.25? Maybe, maybe not. Does it mean that the current market undercurrents aren't as strong as the move higher suggests? Probably. But ACH and we watch, we wait and the market shows us the way. Here's the chart I was creating anyway:-
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If I Hear "price Action" or "setup" ONE More Time...
TheNegotiator replied to joshdance's topic in General Trading
Siuya's right you know. We have to have some sort of common terminology. But like many people don't truly understand what they say and do on a day to day basis, many traders do not really understand what they are saying when they use certain terms. Having said this, there are certainly phrases which I am less than enamoured with. "Read Tape" is one on them. I don't think it's an especially accurate description in most cases and it's just one of those phrases certain types are drawn to. One of those which is bandied about by many people. I'm just not keen on it myself. Another is the "Consistently Profitable Trader". To me it is designed to sucker in people who are desperate to succeed. I'm not saying all people who use it do so for that reason though. The way people always have talked about it in the past is to "Make the Turn". Not that this isn't a phrase in itself. Just that it doesn't focus on entirely the wrong aspect - the money. -
I don't use TL's per se, but the more you watch, the more you notice they are relevant even if you don't use them for entries. What I see is that each rotation tends to exhibit sectional uniformity in trend. Once that has been broken, a new rotation is formed (not necessarily in the opposite direction).
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Not sure, but thinking 11.75-12.25 is a juicy target for the bulls. Was watching for a little reaction at 3.25 there(78.6% ) and it did pause. If the 2.25-1.75 area doesn't hold, a deeper rotation to at least 1400 might play out. We'll have to see.:cinema: edit:perhaps 00.25/00.50 would be more like it(although what's a tick between friends when it come in at 1400.00?)
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That was your conscious incompetence talking again! :rofl:
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IBL is your mark then...
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i reckon be careful below o/n low
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NQ feels quite weak today
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of course we could still dip to close the gap/retest balance vpoc...
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if 2.25 holds here I think we'll move up
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76.2 for mich btw ...
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I agree with those levels Josh. Here's a chart:- 1401.75 is the open for the week. Would have been important in my book either way though. If bulls are to remain in the driving seat, I'd think it shouldn't remain below if breach at all the 1401.75.
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Is The Subconscious Mind Emotionless?
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Trading Psychology
Thanks for your views Tom. How do you see emotions interacting or being part of the forming of subconscious intuition? Do negative emotional experiences elicit inappropriate fight or responses for example? Can our intuitive gut feelings if they are formed 'incorrectly' end up creating the mess of emotions we try to avoid? -
Tom, I wanted to ask a slightly different question to your Unconscious Vs Conscious Competence thread. Is The Subconscious Mind Emotionless? This is the different thread I started to discuss it as I didn't want to hijack your thread! I'd be interested to here your thoughts on this along with others (Josh, Steve, CYP, Gosu and anyone else of course). Back to the main topic
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Is The Subconscious Mind Emotionless?
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Trading Psychology
The answers to these questions I believe could be some of the reasons why seemingly intelligent people get stuck in a loop trying to become profitable. I don’t know if this has been suggested before at all so if it has then maybe we could have a further discussion with people familiar with it. What if we planned to create and control our confidence levels by actively managing our emotional reactions to trades? I’m not suggesting suppress emotions when they are not useful, but rather attempt to generate useful emotional responses to certain trade outcomes. Like for example, cutting losses short within a trade plan and you actively feel good about that. Take an impulsive and rash trade and actively feel hesitation. I haven’t thought through all the emotional responses yet, but I think it could be a good way to harness the emotional part of intuition- that is if we believe it exists!!! This is like the response you would get from your coach for example if you were an athlete in training for the London Olympics. You do something right and the outcome is good, you get praised but also brought back down to earth with the things you didn’t do perfectly. You do something well but the outcome is bad and you get praised for doing what you should. Doing things wrong and your coach should give you a bollocking but point out when you did things right in the past. Get you back on track. The trouble is that most traders don’t have the luxury of a coach at all(let alone a good one). -
So after reading Unconscious Vs Conscious Competence, my thoughts are drawn towards not only the way to identify and harness the intuition we have, but also to understanding the level of accuracy of intuition. If you can’t trust your knowledge and preparation as a trader then how can you trust your gut feelings? However, even this isn’t what I really wanted to discuss. The question I have revolves around whether or not our subconscious minds are emotionless. The next idea is whether or not subconscious logic can be influenced by historical conscious emotion and then the next is whether this intuition can be swayed by current conscious emotion. Or is it our conscious interpretation of our subconscious intuition that brings emotion to the table? A thought I had was that if there is a subconscious emotional part to our brains, just as we store up logical memory to be called upon in the form of intuition, wouldn’t it make sense that that we have emotional intuition? Just as logical intuition is formed by experience, practise and knowledge this would hold true for emotions. So either you see a setup and become focused or happy because your subconscious tells you that similar patterns in the past were profitable for you, or maybe you become negative because you know you have a poor position. Then it turns into that old emotional game we all love so much. The other part to the idea is that if it holds true that emotions are just as much part of our intuition as logic, then surely we could be subconsciously hampering our own experiences with inaccurate emotional portrayals of historical events?
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Siuya, I watched that documentary too I think. There's actually something more to take from the noise which I'm sure has been said elsewhere in trading before. There is no noise. This can be taken in several ways. For example, one trader's noise is an algo's bread and butter(or electricity and code? ). But specifically in the map example, the lie of the land would draw the focus more to points which have a better chance of having the structures they were looking for. Perhaps the "noise" is the "tempo" of the market. So maybe after you have watched the market for an amount of time in a session taking in all the noise and tempo, your subsconcious naturally "points" to a possible point of action where you are likely to be in a hightened state of alert. I don't know, but it's an interesting thought nonetheless. The way this follows my point is when you are looking for your wife at the crowded party, you instinctually know that either she'll be in the middle of the crowd and center of attention, or she'll be at the sides chatting in a small group. The "noise" leads the recognition. I find that sometimes when my mind plays tricks on me like this, it is better to ignore everything and just focus on the execution if it does go tits up. The issue otherwise is that when these ideas appear, it's usually at a really intensely important point that needs my attention to execute properly not my logical brain trying to decode my subconscious thoughts. I know this isn't really the point of what you are trying to get at. On the otherhand, I do sometimes get that feeling and take myself based on it. However, this is only when my market logic fits in with it. So like that low that was made suggested that we had more upside, if I'd have been short and my gut told me "this is going up, get out" then I'd have to check it off against the low and the subsequent move higher before acting.
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I am confused. I saw the chart - and in your quote! Anyway, fixed now.
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Here are the other days I had in the RTH chart for the ETH:-
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A couple of charts showing it. Just skip the first 5 days in the RTH first chart as I couldn't fit enough in on the sess 31 chart. If you look too, the touches in ETH are swing rejection types. RTH:- 24hr:-
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it looks useful on a sess 31...
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Clearly there's no absolutes in this game with the level of information we hold, but there are possibilities which are more likey than others. One is that we get a neutral day as so far the profile is relatively balanced and so pop above IBH then close within it is realistic. Another is we pop above IBH only to find that actually there are no sellers and then we get at least a gap close to 1400.00- juicy target I'm sure most would admit. But what if we don't get above the IBH???? could we possibly liquidate and test that 82.50-80.50 area? Yah of course we could. Must be a lot of longs just as there were a lot of shorts before. Failure to break up as expected wouldn't be nice for them. So we watch and we wait and hopefully when we pounce we catch something nice(and have a good exit plan if not). :cinema: