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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Up and down and up and down but not gone anywhere yet :crap:
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So yesterday was indeed an "outlier" but from an auction perspective it was no different. It balanced a little, broke down, found buyers and eventually looked back up a bit. I wasn't expecting the break to be as it turned out to be but hey, what can you do? My philosphy is that you make a hell of a lot more by taking lots of smaller profitable trades than by hitting the odd jackpot! Not everyone's cup of tea, I know. Either way it looked to me like liquidation and this certainly would tie in with the sluggish nature on its highs. These breaks need to happen from time to time in order to clean the weak hands out and attract new longer term buying. Not that I'm saying it'll rally or not sell off. It could dump again. Who knows. But overnight is a clue that it at least wants to explore back up with the high currently at 1369.50 and sitting at 66.75. If it opens here, it'd be above that 63 area I mentioned yesterday when talking of the chances of 47 before close and in the singles from the most agressive part of yesterday's move down. Looking at the longer term profile I will be interested in what happens if we can get to 1370.75 and then 73.25-75.25. Here's the chart:-
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There's no place in trading for hope :yes sir:
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Just one-timeframing the day away.... Hey, that'd be a great crooner song! (cough) anyway.
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3/7 1347.25 close- 3/8 1354.25 open. Also 54 is high vol.
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so long as we're below 61-63 I think it's possible.
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Nothing seems to be stopping us now so gotta look at next major area around 47-48
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see what I mean ?
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But really who cares when it's ploughing through right?
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60.25 is the double gap and the low of 3/12
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Yeah I think it's a little peculiar considering the zero interest before. This has to be some kind of liquidation esp the way it has moved so far.
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Lol !
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Nah it's because you added me as a friend.
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I would think if it doesn't hammer it through the 72's fairly quickly, we could be on the train the 65's...
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Just not seeing motivated buyers now.
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VWAP, 50% and open all at 74.50 now. Gotta be a tempting target right?
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Maybe, but initially I want it above yesterday's low which was also the first test low today. I would think for a continuation trade that might be a good location otherwise.
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So we're either going to get a ORR (reject reverse from high) or an OAIR (open auction in range) if it gets back above 73.25 and holds.
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numbers in 1min .
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OTD type open so far......
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62.00? Did you mean 65.00?
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If we are going to reject that lower balance, I wouldn't really want to see a foray too far into it. I would think somewhere around 65 balance vpoc would be the lower limit to signal that we aren't necessarily going to accept/explore lower prices.
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NQ is stronger than ES in general at the moment. AAPL is nasdaq listed I believe. So NQ could hold up a over ES, but I'd think that we'd need to have all the indices moving down to get a decent drop.
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This is just one idea and we have to monitor for activity and be responsible for our own trading choices. I'm not recommending it and have several scenarios myself. Considering that we were probably expecting a selloff anyway, both yesterday and overnight, did we really do such a great job? Well, maybe not. First off we hardly tested lower, although I would note that the low wasn't at a particularly significant location imho. We did sell hard into close but it kind of rolled over rather than rejected, before it went into selling mode. In the end it didn't even make new lows though (I believe the RTH day candle is called a gravestone and often does occur at or near a bottom). Overnight we haven't had a continuation to the downside from that important 82.50 upper balance marker price. We've just balanced within Monday's range. You could argue that the market was like this due to holiday related inactivity, yet Europe hasn't reacted so far today. So one possibility is that we are not ready to correct further and it could be a chance to secure a good long location. A test down to levels such as 71.75 or 70.50 might be interesting. Of course subsequent reversal action would have to be watched and if it could break back into Monday and hold, we could get a rally.
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Yeah absolutely it changed. Market auction is all about price discovery and when it failed to get into and hold the upper balance (3/14-4/5) it means that clearly we are too high. Imo we need to test lower to check for where and how much buyers will be motivated. First stop could be around last balance vpoc or one of the areas I highlighted in earlier chart.
