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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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So the question is what does this mean (or more accurately, what might it mean?)? If OTF (other timeframe - i.e big longer timeframe players) were selling and persistent, there would be more consistent agreement with the volume delta. This DOES NOT mean that we can't go lower. It means that that possibly the selling is by shorter term players right now. The most important question is whether or not they will be joined by OTF or whether the lower prices will eventually be met with responsive buying.
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Either bids are being pulled or selling is on the offer mostly.
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Not saying it won't eventually follow, but :-
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It's interesting to note that on this current leg lower the delta has not gone with price:-
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Definite drive down on open but met with strong buying. Sellers were probably watching mid/6.50/vwap area. Hold above now and we could sling shot higher... (could)
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Just in case, here's a reminder posted earlier in thread:- Evidence for a trend day
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OD type open so far. Interesting the half-gap (session gap) is left at 1417.85 - right at that 17.75 area of interest...
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Overnight volume so far is pretty high at 560k - 192k, 215k, 366k, 289k, 238k last 5 overnight vols. Should be busy. Pick your spots and good luck!
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Also, overnight high at 1431.75 is a 1 tick fail of 11/1/12 overnight high 1431.50...
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So BO back in the WH for a 2nd term. Only time will tell if it's good or bad for the markets. Draghi has been saying German economy is starting to suffer. German ind production did not impress earlier. European Commission cut growth forecasts. Lots of earnings out and due out after close. Crude inventories & US consumer credit due later. EU's Rehn and German Chancellor Merkel talking later. Greek MP's voting on austerity later. As for the market, it seems to be one way then the other right now. Just when you expect a push it reverses back hard. Overnight high at 1431.75 and low at 1410.00 (current) and where we're likely to open fairly close to, suggests that perhaps higher prices have been tentatively rejected for now and so a test of recent lower value could well be next (a.k.a 1406.50. Above is still the 1417.75 area should we decide to test this move lower for conviction. Any move much lower and we have 1400.00, 1397.50/96.50 and 1384.75 as bigger targets (with others along the way). Above 17.75 would be 20.75, 28.00 then the overnight high 31.75 with higher target of 43.75. Here's the chart:-
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Big day today for USA. Greeks are striking and eurozone figures earlier weren't great. 1417.75 area looks to be key again today! Here's a chart:-
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Do You Think That Trading is Only for Business People
TheNegotiator replied to Jack Francisco's topic in Beginners Forum
I think that there are certain skills which can help you to succeed in trading over the long run and being able to run a business is part of it in my mind. However, being good at trading and being good at running a business are not necessarily synonymous. It's also worth pointing out that businessmen and running a business are not the same thing either. A businessman as I see it, is someone who is looking for opportunity here and there and to invest or speculate with their capital in the real world. This is quite different to trading. Someone who runs a business is someone who is looking after the day to day work of the company, making sure everything is running efficiently and well. Part of being a businessman might be identifying companies which do have a good business but aren't run well and buying them in order to take advantage of this. But the two things aren't the same. Then there's the fact that not all business people are good at what they do (whether they are businessmen or run a business). Now not all businesses fail because of the lack of ability of their owners/operators however, it must be a factor in many cases and lots of businesses do fail (just like traders). -
I'm just watching the bbc site:- BBC News - US 2012 election results Apparently this is the most expensive election campaign in history at something like $2.5Bl. Although generally this could be said about each sequential election, the 2012 election seems rather ridiculous. Given in USA the poverty rate currently stands at ~15% ( BBC News - US poverty rate unchanged even as incomes fall) that figure is outrageous. Anyway. I wonder what the election campaign cost chart would look like in terms of gold? Anyone seen that or fancy doing it?
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of course that will all likely change if we get above and hold yesterday's high (and conveniently this is also currently the session midpoint)...
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ah, i use that term based on real rth sessions soc = scene of crime. NFP especially, but other releases and events that move the market often have where they originated from retested. I think they will want to test the 17.75 area and given the lack of any buying so far, if there's not a sharp reaction there, they could try to run short-term stops. Yesterday is certainly thin below there.
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One thing I find useful to do and I don't know whether some or all or nobody else does, is I try to identify what I think the market (given context) wants to test. So in this case, I was looking at a gap close and SOC retest. We had a really strong print on the NFP pre-open. The open did not follow that up with a push higher suggesting that maybe we had moved up too quickly and there was then the chance of a test lower. The first test was the half gap (session not range) which then bounced to retest the session midpoint/vwap. At this stage, there was still plenty of downside to get to what I believed we wanted to check - the NFP scene of crime and yesterday's close. Anyway, that's an example of how I see it and I took the trade at 28.75 for 4.75. Not too shabby for me on an NFP day
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8-day balance? I think if there was genuine strength, then there would have been follow through instead of just an IB move then balance. It couldn't even test the 28's. The 17.75's are probably ripe to be retested. Time will tell though. It's just one scenario right?
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Watching for yesterday's high @25.00 then close/on vpoc/nfp soc @23.50...
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So it's getting closer to complete bs then? Lol. Do you have a link for that info?
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Yesterday felt like classic short covering. The market surged up but could not continue. The 5-day balance (10/23-10/31) was well developed and the chance of retesting its VPOC (1406.50) is quite high. Still, that NFP report may well have scuppered that idea for today at least!! :missy:
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Someone got a fantastic fill on the release there! Also worth noting that the SOC is the overnight VPOC so far at 23.50(this could change though).
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171k ! rev previous to 148k
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NFP's due in under 10 mins now exp 125k from 114k. ADP beat but historically it's not a good indicator of NFP. Here's a quick chart:-
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Is This Good Time for Buy Gold Again???
TheNegotiator replied to mohsinqureshii's topic in Market News & Analysis
If all the world's central banks continue with their policy to inflate away debt and devalue currency (under the guise of stimulus), ALL tangible assets will ultimately go up in value. True, if there's some dodgy goings on in gold and silver etc. then there could be a crisis in supply and prices could rocket. But then ultimately there are bubbles like anything. There is a limited supply, but look what happened in Oil. $150 down to something like $35 (can't remember exactly but you get the picture I'm sure). My feeling is that gold could potentially be worth much much more but then I want to see the stock indices start to march their way to much higher levels too. The S&P 500 needs to start making new all-time highs and keep going. At this point, it's likely that gold will also move considerably higher. But for now, it could be that the market is quite long already all things considered. -
The elections are upon us. But what do we think will be different between candidates? Major economic problems are the biggest focus right now and that will be the same with any president. Either way, their ability to govern could be hampered by the house/senate. You might think some of your candidate's policies are great, but I can assure you that he will make some really dumb decisions too (unless he's not human!). So my feeling is vote for the person you feel is the most genuine in their attempts to govern and do good for their country. Vote for someone who will try help the nation's image grow in the eyes of the world. Vote for someone who will try to do the right thing when it comes to the escalating environmental issues we're beginning to face. They might not manage to succeed in all aspects of their governance, but at least if they have a good mindset, they'll be starting to move the US in the right direction. Anyway, I thought I'd do a little TL poll and see if it's accurate in any way once we know the outcome.