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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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If anyone was interested (or in any doubt about current influence of spain), here are this morning's spanish auction results: Sold EUR 2.541Bl (exp EUR 1.5-2.5 Bl) 2014&2022 Bonds 2014 - 3.3 bid to cover ratio, 3.463% yield 2022 - 2.4 bid to cover ratio, 5.743% yield
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Yeah of course. The market is made up of many different sizes of balance and depending on your objectives, the balances which you choose to play (or how long you choose to play them for) may differ.
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For me, balance forms and balance breaks. Once there is an indication that balance is forming, it can continue or quickly break out. If it continues, it is likely to bring in more traders playing the balance. As it saturates or "matures", there is a greater chance that when it does break, the move to explore new prices will be more substantial. After all, there's no reason why range can't expand to some extent to swallow up nearby important prices. A break doesn't necessarily occur totally because the profile is complete, but more because the balance is mature. The longer the balance matures, the greater the chances are of it breaking- naturally. But a complete profile can show a mature balance
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Potentially an extra bit of info to make good decisions with.
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Yeah I found those too What lovely opex action we're getting right now!! :crap:
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I'm not too fussed about the yields, just wanted quotes. Bond price up = yield down basically. So a quote for Spanish 10yr Bond would be just fine.
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Anyone know of any codes for spanish debt (probs 10yr is best) for DTN?
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Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in E-mini Futures
Yes Nearly. They are the "Value Area" high and low. The Value Area is created by taking the point of control or volume point of control (vpoc) nearest the middle of the profile and then adding the higher volume of the sum of two prices above and below until the ~1SD is met (actually in this case it's set at 70%). It's not especially useful to me and I could have chosen to not draw it in at all. It is a yearly profile but that's more coincidence to why is was drawn like that than anything. The trend begins to properly take shape imo from the start of the year. MM asked for a separate profile to be drawn for it. Pfft. You must be kidding!! -
Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in E-mini Futures
Okay, well for ease I have separated out the broad balances from 2011 and trend & minor balances from 2012. I usually do this kind of thing on an ongoing basis, just didn't post that in the original picture. If you were thinking of something slightly different, let me know and I'll do a chart maybe US lunchtime. -
Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in E-mini Futures
MM do you mean draw profiles for each coloured box? -
Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in E-mini Futures
Nikko, I'm talking about the bigger picture primarily from the perspective of a day trader. That could be 30 days or longer, depending on how far back I need to look to get a read or how far forward it takes to determine the market's reaction to what I am looking at. As for your point about fundamentals, I think the time frames and price changes I am focussing on are still well within the bounds of technical analysis. Even much much further out, people do use technical analysis and effectively so. The market is comprised of all kinds of different participants acting within different timeframes. But they all act based on specific objectives and trade at "non-random" prices. They might be different from what you or I believe to be sound technically, but then the market is a composite average of views and objectives. Believe it or not, fundamentals have a technical impact on the markets anyway. In terms of "shocks", for example big natural catastrophies or attacks etc., there will still be some order depending on objectives and positions of market participants. They might not all be immediately useful to every trader, yet they can add up to give a broader technical picture. -
92-93 is the area I've been talking about for the past week:-
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lol ?
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So does that mean you won't take part in the trading challenge?
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Hell, you don't even need to know what you're doing at all! Trading decisions and actions in the heat of battle are what really make the difference. This is why even some very very good analysts end up appalling traders. They'll talk a great game though.
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Lots to be aware of right now. Eco releases, earnings reports, Euro Sov Debt yields (Spain but also Italy), opex week (as stated by karoshiman), North Korea, Obama on Oil markets later, blah blah blah. So potentialy alot to be aware of Btw for anyone who is interested, here is a nice little govt bond calendar:- https://multimediafiles.kbcgroup.eu/ng/published/KBC/PDF/MARKTENZAAL/marktenzaal_pdf_weekly_KBC_Weekly_Government_Bond_Auction_Calendar_0900dfde8028b26b.pdf From:- https://www.kbcmerchantbanking.com/WPP/D9e01?t=~/wp_dealingroom
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Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in E-mini Futures
It's a slightly different picture looking at ES and imho it is distinctly less "clean":- -
To anyone who tries to trade or invest based on economic releases and can't fathom why the market reacts the way it does, please take a look at this story and the video:- Ignorance Is BLS I've mentioned before that I question the reliability of the data and clearly this guy does too. I'm sure there are many others out there with the same view. The data in question was the just past US Advance Retail Sales release, but it could be applied to many if not all releases. I'm not advocating trading against the number. Indeed we see markets move in the direction of a release at least for a little while. But think carefully about how much weight to give the actual figure over the information that is right in front of you on your charts.
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Well we've been up and down over the last week. I was still watching 63 as an area, but there was activity yesterday below there, contained by 60.75. Value over the past week and including yesterday is starting to develop a little more after not really being agreed upon. A possibilty is that it will become better defined before exploring new prices. I get the feeling, that money is being moved around here but not certain. I feel if this is the case, then we should become a little more orderly when it's complete. I don't expecially like the 86.25 high or the 52.50 low and see them as "running out of fuel" in those areas. So my feeling is we could go either way or even both. I still feel a test of 92.50 NFP SOC is potentially critical and clearly we could reverse or continue from there. I don't know what today will bring, but where we open is always important to me. So it is a little early to be calling it. If we were to open now @~71.50, we'd be a little above the balance VPOC @66.50 but still within the "meat" of the developing value. This would indicate acceptance of these prices and may not provide immediate opportunity. On the other hand, when markets form value they end up "centering" on the high volume and that is frequently where the change in behaviour originates from. A break before the break if you like. Above all, I'll see what the market does do to tell me where opportunity lies and hopefully bag more winners than losers ! An important note is that when the market is moving, yes you might catch an early move, but there's usually plenty of opportunity in the market to profit from.
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Wow, this thread is really getting heated! I would point out that whilst not be required to like another member, we do ask all other members to respect each other. Having said that, I think maybe a "pistols at dawn" style trading showdown would be appropriate here. I am happy to adjudicate. Each willing participant can send me a full daily account statement and after the period of maybe say 1 month, we can see who is better. p/l never lies boys...
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Not too good but not too bad either. Take a look at Technology content trusted by users around the world :: TweakTown USA Edition for reviews (lots of decent tech sites about but tweaktown's methodical reviewing nature is good for comparisons). For benchmarking memory, they use aida64 which used to be everest. I never got around to buying a copy but they have an evaluation version for free. $39.95 though is cheap and it's a very useful bit of software (esp if you build/overclock your own rig:D)
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Depends really. I think generally you will see the difference. I'd go for a 60-120gb OS/freq app (e.g. trading stuff) drive with a bigger mech storage drive (although thai floods have jacked the prices up on these), but then I will hazard a guess that you're memory is 1333mhz. Memory is a big performance driver. At the moment memory is dirt cheap so could be worth looking at an upgrade at the same time.
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Being right and being right at the right time and being right at the right time for a profit are not all the same things unfortunately :doh:
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Not sure that anyone is too interested, but it seems OCZ's new Vertex 4 actually uses the latest Marvell controller just with Indilinx firmware. Interesting... anandtech article
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Decelerating cumulative delta is another one. But even so, it could be just a temporary reversal/consolidation. It's important to then watch for subsequent rotations further in that direction. Plus I always want to see if any important price level has been reached. I'm thinking they might try for 73-74.50 myself so long as 72.25 is taken. Then we'll have to see how it goes on a move lower. Sometimes, after a few losing days it's better to just take a decent profit for your own confidence. Not that you can't or won't make more. Just that if you lose, you'd dislocate a leg due to how much you'd be kicking yourself in your arse. Just a thought and not advice. Everyone's an individual and knows their exact own situation. So it's you(one) who is in the best position to make such a call.