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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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This was the other thing I meant to draw on the chart:- Either way it looks like it's building for a break...
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I think there's a lot before 68's if I'm honest. Plus, I kind of think there is more downside so anything much north of 66.50 could be acceptence. Not saying it won't & ACH. Also, if we take the 60's that'll be a few burnt breakout longs.
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Okay so we hit the 63.75 naked vpoc I mentioned before and turned but failed at the open/vah. What does everyone reckon is up next? New highs, new lows, back to vpoc, don't care?
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Considerations for a Wannabe Trader...
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Beginners Forum
The problem with this is that everyone has a different take and personality so it won't be suitable for all. -
Economic Data is All Cock and Bull
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in General Trading
It's usually because of opportunist traders who hit market off unexpected numbers. I think it's self fulfilling. Numbers traders hit market making it move a lot, other traders are wary and pull orders, numbers traders move the market more, other traders are more wary ..... -
Slightly updated chart from before to account for 4/16 naked vpoc.
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Note on area: 59.50/60.00 is day 78.6% retracement/open/base of singles. Could be important.
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Just looking at the broader picture for a comparison of action to the last break down from the upper balance. 4/4 & 4/5 was kinda a break before the break, but balanced. Today, we are in a very similar situation at the moment. The current RTH profile is quite balanced and relatively small. IF we do the same sort of thing, it's possible we reach up higher to that original 65-66.50 area.
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Early chart update:-
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Interesting overnight move so far. Considering the balance profile has matured a little so we can see some agreement of "value" (82.75 vpoc) and considering that value was rejected (in that it did not bring in new buying), the next session or two could have a big impact on the longer term auction. Fail to get above 65-66.50 (although possibly 70.50 too) and we could see another test lower to overnight lows and balance lows and possibly 47/48 area of significance. However, given the low prices it's also possible to see responsive buyers come in and if they are strong, close the gap. I would think if this does happen, that 92.50 will be a near term goal (probably not today but you never know). Personally, my gut feeling is lower, but I could just be confusing that with stomach rumbling. Of course the last possible option is a "more data please" scenario where we don't actually do much other than develop some more volume (probably around 65-66.50). One way or another, I'll be right! :rofl: (cough) Here's a chart anyway:-
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Ah well, that final one from the 73.75 did work but just didn't have the legs to close back inside the IB. We left a pretty poor low there @1373.50 too. Hope everyone did well today, have a great weekend and hope to see you all next week!
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Hello Tom! Where you bin? Anyway, my spidey sense is tingling and it's saying low will be taken for weak hands and either gap closed or weekly open tested before break back into ib. dunno though that could just be total bs.
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Josh are those volume stats part of your chart?
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I have one chart for you early on today. It's my RTH daily volume profile chart. The one thing I am drawn to is the shape of the current balance profile. There is no strong consensus of value.
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The only "ignorant" ideas are that you have to be "right" to make money and if you are "right" you will make money. That's just not reality for most traders. I have made lots of money on some days when I haven't got a f*&£*@g clue what was going on and had I not managed my trades well, I'd have lost a great amount of money. Then there are those frustrating days on which I know what is happening and yet I can't take full advantage due to the way the market is getting there. Anyway, yesterday finished with a big range of 21 points. From the high, the idea of it getting into 50's was a little on the edge of possible expectations. Slick had mentioned the area it did get to as did I (previous balance vpoc/long term high volume). I think this was always going to be a big step to get beyond. Anyway, here is a chart showing ES RTH daily ranges from the past 500 days.
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Economic Data is All Cock and Bull
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in General Trading
It certainly feels like that to me, although if you were a conspiracy theorist you might suggest they actually want to report inaccurate numbers (or perhaps more to the point- ones which they can manipulate easily). -
I think it was worth posting as a possible continuation trade. I took it too but it just couldn't stick. You mentioned a "ledge" @ 90.00 from 4/4 &4/5 I think? I was looking but couldnt see:-
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As intriguing as the number is, I'm not sure this is an especially traditional way of employing the initial balance. If it works for you though, good luck to you! I had 74.75 for a different reason but there you go, it often works out like that. Awesome movement right now btw!!
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Sorry, which initial balance are you talking about?
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Not good numbers here.
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Unfortunately I'm out of my 78's now ahead of 82.75's and 10am figures. Dont forget those 10am figures!!
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Dell IPS LEDs are the business but come at a premium.
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Squawk but also zerohedge had it pretty quickly:- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spanish-auction-fail-10y-yield-highest-5-months
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Today, we are closer to opex, we have philly fed and earnings. The market so far overnight has demonstrated that it could have rejected higher or it could have rejected lower or both. Indeed, it is not uncommon that one neutral day is follow by another. There is currently some newsflow on french ratings amongst other things and there's a also a chance the Spanish auction results were over-reacted to - on both sides. Who really knows. But when the market tightens like it did yesterday, you know there's likely to be a decent move fairly soon. In this case imho, this could be up or it could be down. If someone says it will be up and another says it will be down, clearly someone will be right though. I prefer to prepare for all possibilities as usually when we think we "know" what the market will do either A- we screw up execution or B- get married to that direction. Anyway, here's a chart for anyone interested
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Viewsonic's VA2703 27-Inch Full HD 1080p Widescreen LCD Monitor (Black): Amazon.ca: Electronics Pretty cheap 27 inch monitor for you there slick- or you could just find yourself a 32 inch tv. Always felt that a 32 incher on the desk was a bit ott though!