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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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we just love the balance vpoc right now don't we?
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I'm a little concerned at the way NQ is in a flag right now.
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I did the same Josh but got out. Didn't like the look of what it was doing in front of the open. Plus I'm looking at what happens at 86.75. In fairness though, we basically have an OTD so gotta be a little more careful shorting now.
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I would love to see a test of that 92.50 area today and we're well within reach. FOMC caveat though.
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I don't know. What I want to see is where and how we open, then how the auction progresses. We tested the minor development within the 4/9-4/20 RTH balance (now 4/9-4/24) on Monday and didn't hold. Tested the next on Tuesday and it looks like we won't hold that either. So if we open in the top dev, do we develop some more or start moving to previous higher value? I'll be looking for early direction and any responsive or initiative type activity at the upper balance extremes/balance VPOC.
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Not really no. However, you are welcome to share your thoughts and views in our thread.
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Just FYI, NQ 1 tick failed its low from yesterday. Could be nothing unless some buyers come in & established downtrend (intraday today only) is broken.
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NQ through 40 could well see new RTH lows.
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possible 1 tick fail @71.00
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Anyone would think ES & NQ aren't correlated:- Edit: sry chopped off symbols. ES left NQ right.
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Haha! But you see how it can give you possible confluence. Just so long as you don't get married to it - but that's the same with everything.
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btw the low there was also a 1 tick fail...
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I didn't feel we'd show the strength we did. Even so, the 70.50 mentioned area has so far capped the highs. That current low was the last volume development yesterday rth btw.
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any midpoint test here could be important.
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Hands up you called it Josh! That was a pretty aggressive move too.
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I think it's pushing it while it can.
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market seems to be f*&$%*g nuts!! lol
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Let me know how it goes. Maybe we should start a thread on it to discuss ideas?
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Do we accept yesterday's idea of value or do we reject it? Well, it looks like we are going to open in range possibly toward the upper end, but there's still time until open for that to change. There are some clear areas to watch to monitor for acceptance. 60/61, 65/66.50, 70.50 for capping a move higher, 56.75,54.00/52.50, 50.00, (46.75/48.00) below. Remember there is Apple earnings after RTH close and FOMC tomorrow. We have already had positive earnings from a variety of companies pre-open and various European bond auctions (Summary Of Europe's Sovereign Bond Auctions | ZeroHedge). Later we have consumer conf, new home sales, hpi, richmond fed. My guess given all the data and barring any surprises, yesterday's value will be accepted today. But hey, I have a plan for this idea or if value is rejected as too high or low. That's the game though right?
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Hmm. Trading your runner, you have to ask yourself three questions. 1)Is there a good reason for holding a position? i.e. what is the directional conviction like. 2)What would actvity have to do for me to exit? i.e. early exit clauses. 3)What does a trend trader use to keep them in a position? i.e. heretical "indicators" such as trend lines, moving averages and all kinds of other stuff. Trading a runner imho requires a very different approach to the methods we(Tom and I) use to trade usually. That's unless you just want to pick a number of counter rotation levels as tolerance and exit if one is breached.
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This is a very simple free tool which may help you Rick: Market Profile Calculator
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"Throwing the baby out with the bath water" springs to mind. While I use volume based candles for trading, time based bars have their place too. As a day trader, my timeframe is entirely contained by the RTH session. 405 minutes. The tempo of the auction within the context of this timeframe is very important to me. Volume bars alone won't show you this, unless of course you have a time indicator, but even then it somehow doesn't give a good idea of flow imo. Then there is the very simple concept of competition (or lack thereof). In fairness this is similar to auction tempo, but more specifically the velocity at which the market acts on moves away from value.
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So how are you currently looking to exit your runner(s) Tom?
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Bah. Neither break higher nor lower. Almost got a vpoc shift on close to 62.50 but it wasn't to be. Never mind. Have a good evening everyone and see you all tomorrow!
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dollar index breaking down right now btw...
