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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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I did get long there but didnt hold it all the way up. If you look, we first tested @yesterday's midpoint/low vol. Then it pulled down to 82.75(83.00) all important VPOC and showed no interest in going through. When balance is rejected it often happens from high volume. Oh well. At least you took it. Look where we are now!
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stops .
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That's not really what I was asking. What I meant was what exactly does it represent contractually.
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Either way, currently ES is about as energetic as an inebriated koala bear.:sleep:
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CYP, that is exactly what the ES is!!! :rofl: On a different note, if it keeps floundering on it's highs it will need a deeper rotation down to attract buyers. It could be that we've moved up way too quickly. We'll see if that's the case if we do start moving back down. :missy:
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Despite the lack of strong follow through up to now, the key is still the early rejection of the balance VPOC:-
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What do you think the ES is exactly?
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This is just the kind of action that makes me wary. I could see it grind up towards o/n highs then spike through a few points taking stops out with it. ACH...
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What would you say is strong selling or buying in terms of delta and how long should it continue to have more of an affect on the market?
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Not getting to current highs is not...
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Sorry, got distracted there. I don't think anything has been especially clear so far. The one thing that you could say it that we are testing (and extending through) the top of the current balance high and yet the responsive selling thus far has not been strong. If the market thinks value is still lower, why is there not more selling competition at these prices? On the other hand, the balance VPOC is at 82.75 and so if this is value, we're not that far away from it - although this would assume tighter and higher balance is dominant. Just now we've taken yesterday's highs out again which is positive for higher prices potentially.
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Yesterday's RTH close @87.50 might be interesting actually. Was also the last swing high pre-open ~ 8:04am
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If it gets back that high I'd really be looking at an RTH test of 92.25 area. This open btw is like some kind of super slow mo OTD! Gotta love the ES.
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One interesting thing here though is that after push higher and fall lower overnight, the vpoc sits at 83 again. Profit taking maybe? I want to see the open.
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A trade is a "tick" regardless of volume size. So 100 bought in one go at offer = 1 tick, 3 sold in one go at bid = 1 tick. etc., etc. The number for a tick chart is the number of ticks per bar.
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left is rth right is full globex session
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I think we will probably open around the 82.75. If we did, then we are at balance and yesterday's vpoc. This means same idea of value. The 80 area is interesting on the profile anyway and considering it's yesterday's low that makes it more important in my eyes. Althought the test of the NFP SOC was overnight, it is there nonetheless and the move away from it was clear. We could get strong buying on open but on the other hand with that test in place already (which preferably would have been rth) ES could be saying it's not ready to move into the upper balance. If this is the case, there's a good chance of a decent retracement lower considering we are at the top of the balance. Yesterday's lows would be the potential tipping point. ACH. Good luck.
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Slick, this is my long term profile. Notice I chart based on RTH. If we can't get above and hold the overnight high area, there is 65, 46.75 and ultimately 04.75 below. Above, I'd look to retest those highs and really 1429 before deciding if the area is to be accepted or rejected. If it's accepted then look to the low vol extreme @1465 next. But who really knows
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Finally we test the NFP SOC and it happens @~8:30am BST. :doh:
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Yeah we'll see. I have 92.50 but nothing is set in stone obviously. (saying it again as I'm typing). I would also be wary of them ploughing straight through too. So any positions would be closely watched.
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having said that, it looks like they are going to try again for lows lol
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note to all: low was 1 tick fail there so far. Be aware if this starts ramping.
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Oh we do love those 82.75's don't we. I have to say, I'm not that sure if we're going anywhere before the fomc, but then the release is in 1 hour and we have plenty of time until the actual speech. Who knows for sure. If the low doesn't hold I think there is quite a long way down to go. I'm less keen on the 77's than I was a few days ago, yet they are still there.
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this was the flag which was basically dead from the red box I drew:-
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I did but I have reversed now. It's not looking too great now but was worth a shot.
