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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Depends on context, volatility, risk parameters etc. It's possible to trade well with either style (so long as the second mouse isn't too late).
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Interestingly, RTH if we look at the balance from 3/13, including it we don't have a vpoc shift by ~2k but if we exclude 3/13 vpoc has shifted from 82.75 to 97.50.
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Agreed. The relative change in delta and volume at key reference point can be crucial early indications of market intent.
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Interestingly this is a point about intentions for delta. If delta is moving against price, it kind of shows that the underlying intent of the "stronger" hands is with price and could lead to capitulation opposite to delta direction at some point. Although this isn't exactly a textbook case of that either.
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Yeah I'm not sure right now either. Delta is starting to tip so would need a follow through for a rotation lower. We'll see.
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On volume and delta. One thing we are failing to mention is context.
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We're still in an upward channel and so I think we need to break the midpoint at least to rotate lower by much. I do feel like there's a decent chance it will move higher later today so what's the reward in selling here? Not sure. :missy:
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What did you make of the test then Josh?
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Yeah that 92.50 area is important as was 1400.75 above. I think another test of yesterday's high would give us a better idea of market intent. (although we have seen a little turn so far off the current midpoint)
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Fear Yourself Young Apprentice and the Chaos Within
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Trading Psychology
It's funny you say that though because isn't it scientifically understood that deliberate practise forms new neurological pathways in the brain? If this is the case, the "will to win" and sheer determination can get you there. Isn't this often what separates the great from the good (or not so good)? -
One last thing (I think LOL) is 1401.75 is the RTH April open.
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Obviously you can throw 96.25 in there too as yesterday's VPOC.
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Okay I was going to post this before GDP but didn't. Not to matter as the idea just evolves as the market does anyway. I know the areas to watch out for aren't that clear so here are the key ones:- 1411.50-13.50 1408.50 1403.25 1400.75 1397.50/98.50 1394.50 1391.50/92.50 1389.25 1387.00 1382.75 1380.25 1370.25 These are just my opinion of levels and NOT advice to trade here.
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The worst kind of breakfast!!
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Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in E-mini Futures
I thought it would be good to update the thread today considering the trading from the last few weeks. As pointed out by Josh (joshdance) in the Day Trading the E-mini Futures thread, since the 3/13/12 Fed day breakout, we've actually developed a broad balance. This is the first broad balance this year so far and it's actually a good thing imho as far as the current trend higher goes. Note that I'm NOT saying because a broader balance has developed, I believe the trend will continue. But what it is doing is allowing particpants to evaluate their positions in the market. For a broader balance to develop and the latest smaller balance to be the first lower balance of the year, something has to have changed. In fairness, this change could be merely the perception that although the market is strong, prices are high in current context and activity and so profits need to be booked in before reassessing the situation. Broadly speaking, market activity on all levels goes:- TREND - BALANCE - TEST - TREND (continuation or reversal). This broader balance is a sign that the bigger trend has moved to the next stage of activity. From here we could develop sideways more, break down or break up, but what we now have is a good cleaar visual reference for the market's activity. -
Fear, fear, fear is what I hear when traders are talking about their psychological problems with trading. Sure, fear is a problem when you have a crappy trade on and whilst it needs to be dealt with appropriately, but it is NOT the underlying problem. Fear is created in situations of unknown risk. It is our evolutionary mechanism for telling us that there could be big trouble ahead. The way we act subsequent to feeling fear is of course something which needs to be scrutinised as it's clearly all to often in a way which is detrimental to our accounts. But as a trader I know this. Although there are indeed uncertain situations which markets do throw up from time to time, the vast majority of fear and uncertainty is created by lack of preparation, biased views, inconsistent monitoring of markets and indecision. In other words, YOU BECOME FEARFUL IN A TRADE BECAUSE YOU KNOW YOU'VE MESSED UP AND HAVEN'T A CLUE WHAT IS REALLY GOING ON. Or you just can't help but take impulsive trades where you know you shouldn't. If you don't have rigid enough risk mechanisms in place to exit the trade and the fear builds even more as the market prints against you. This explanation also covers those who are fearful of pulling the trigger to enter a trade. If haven't assessed the market, indentified trades and assigned proper risk parameters to them, there's every reason to be fearful as if you do take a trade, you know you'll be floating in a sea of chaos very quickly. I hope I'm being clear here. Whilst it's important to manage fear when it appears, it's imperative that you manage day-to-day trading objectives properly and thus evade potentially fearful situations in the first place.
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Lol true. I do try to be as clear as I can though in those situations as I'm always mindful that not all who are reading the thread will be as knowledgeable as you and other more experienced traders we have here
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From the Standard and Poor's website:- I'm absolutely certain this is the trigger for the market dip, although the reason is probably that it was too long temporarily (at least). The interesting thing is that a couple of hours into the European session and the market has developed volume above the first RTH development yesterday:-
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I'm sorry if I didn't make it clear enough for you gosu. However, I would point out that I stated it is the futures contract representing the s&p 500 index. It was meant to be a brief illustration of the potential importance and weighting of the contract in the global market place. It was not to meant to be a exhaustive study into the full mechanisms by which it operates. But I think you'll agree that the ES and the S&P 500 cash index are inextricably linked by some of these. My overall point was that it is a big market, but actually volume and delta volume matter irrespective of this. However, as you and I know, if we are discussing whether they're useful to a trader's profitability, well as they say "beauty is in the eye of the beholder". I've seen people make good money with all kinds of different "indicators" and methods. The difference is them. The trader is the key. Anyway I'm going a little here!
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So true. Can get very ugly if you're not careful. I hope everyone did okay and even well today. If you didn't, remember that tomorrow is another day. Goodnight.
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I kinda agree Josh. But also, considering the chart you posted just a short while ago (balanced profile post fed), are we really breaking out? Plus if we are using two distinct profiles, we are exploring very recently traded prices. In other words we aren't poking our heads above the clouds... I guess the next few days will give us more of an idea.
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Btw what is left of the gap from 4/3 - 4/4 begins @4/4 high of 1398.50. Current high is 98.25.
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Next up areas if we push some more:-
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This really is a nice thing to hear buddy! Absolutely the kind of thing I want us to foster in this thread.
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The e-mini s&p 500 is the futures contract representing the S&P 500. The constituents of the S&P 500 represent some of the largest companies across America and the index is often seen as a bellweather of the US economy as a whole (this was traditionally the DJIA). So even if you think it's not big, what it represents is and its trading activity is broad. Whatever participants motivations are- outrighting, spreading or hedging(technically the same thing as spreading), delta represents aggressive participants. It shows you what the current balance of trade is when coupled with price. I use cumulative delta personally as I don't like isolated single bar delta. This way you can see momentum. Same as a standard price chart. Even if you think that it is moved by all kinds of other markets other than itself, traders want to make money and so they will trade based on that. Besides, if generally delta is not agreeing with price and those aggressive participants are wrong, that means something too. But the key point is if you are trading the ES, what its volume and delta are doing directly affect what you can do whether or not you like it. Hope that makes sense s&p 500 fact sheet