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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Absolutely. Align yourself with the market correctly and you can make a packet. Otherwise it's like trying to ski uphill. Not a recommended thing to try.
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You know as well as I do that traders read and read in their attempts to find that magic formula or secret ingredient that'll change them from being an "also ran" to a "champion trader". I like trading books and genuinely new ideas and ways of thinking in the market. I think it's important to challenge yourself and constantly evolve. But my thoughts are more about inexperienced traders and their lack of direction or understanding of what might truly make the difference to their trading. I have seen so many books dismissed as rubbish or out of touch with today's markets and again, many which people believe to be great which I think "Hmm, I didn't think that was such a great book. Maybe it's me?" Do some people have an innate ability to understand which path they need to tread? Do some people just strike lucky? Or does a trader need to come full circle before deeply understanding the benefits which they might personally glean from a certain text?
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I was beginning to think nobody was around gosu! Obviously you had a good one this am.
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Well I don't 'know' for sure, but I think that people are forced to do business into close. They hold on as long as they can in the hope that they'll get a better price, but in many cases must exit by close. Plus there is an element of diminishing rotational opportunity. The less time left in the session, the less likely it will trade the prices you want - and a move away from there will force you to act potentially. It's also a little self-fulfilling like much of trading. Traders know it'll likely pick up in activity and directional agressiveness often into close and therefore are more prone to hitting out of a position. This in turn fuels moves/volatility/volume. Lastly, think about overnight risk. What happens when there is potentially market moving information to be release in say europe out of RTH? Those short term traders are potentially going to be overly exposed going into that.
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Slightly bigger rotation up here so far of 3.75pts but nothing to write home about so far. Noticed though that the delta is building higher very consistently though, so will be intereseted to see what happens next.
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Good stuff Abyss! I'm not the first to use this approach and certainly won't be the last, but thanks for the compliment anyway! I hope it helps some people at least. I'm sure you'll be able to contribute to the thread with your experience so I'm looking forward to that! :beer:
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Wow that took a while to do the diagram and now broken further!!! :doh: Anyway targets below for me were 66.75/65.00, 60.75/60.00, 57.25, 54.00/52.50, 48.00/46.75. Here is the diagram of what I was watching (finally phew):-
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crude btw is carnage right now and is well below $100
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Hope everyone is doing well so far today. Personally felt it has been quite simple to trade so far and will do a diagram to explain shortly.
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unsurprisingly, in case it gets there for a test, 83 is the half gap.
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Btw, if you find yourself being kicked out of your login after a while so you can't see the images posted, just make sure you check the "remember me?" box when logging in.
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There is basically a decision to be made today. Do we take out the gap below 80.25 or do we re-establish value back into the upper balance? There could well be a "testing the water" below the 80's in RTH although this did happen post NFP release. Here's the chart of what I am looking for:-
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There are some key points on the chart that the market is saying it feels is important. One is 89 area. The other right now is 80. 1380.00 using a long term back-adjusted profile starting from 03/14/07 is the lowest volume price point (meaning lowest point of valley not directly volume) until 1346.75 below and above 1465.00. edit:forgot to add the pic
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nfp 115k exp 160k act, 120k last rev to 154k unemployment 8.2 % exp 8.1% actual.
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The truth is that we all speculate on this (well many anyway) rather than 'know'. I knew stock traders who swore that their stocks were led by specific index futures and others say cash is ultimately the leader. My opinion is that mostly the underly is the key driver. However, depending on where in the world the focus is on and what type of action is prevalent, the true driver can and does vary. Keep in mind what is related to the market you trade but remember that ultimately you trade your product and not what you think might be leading.
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What can you do about a position after the market has closed?
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Potentially a big day for the markets. ADP came in way below on Weds. However, in my experience it's best not to get too into the idea that NFP will certainly follow. 1- ADP does not always accurately predict NFP's 2- There could be revisions to the previous figure to account for 3- The market could well have discounted to a fair level based on the chances for a out of line figure and so any better than now expected release could catch people with their trousers down. 4- Often on NFP days we see one way then the other. Don't get married to a trade if it starts to turn sour. 5- A highly negative report could ultimately have positive connotations with respect to possibly elevating the chances of a near term QE3. This is really what the market is after right now. Above all, to quote the last chairman of the ECB, "we must remain vigilant" (to downside risks to stability as well as up ).
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Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in E-mini Futures
Yes. There are many platforms which you can get MP/VP realtime. Investor/RT from Linnsoft, Market Delta which is based on Linnsoft IRT, Sierrachart, Ninjatrader I think and many more. The first three I believe to be the best. You can either pay for them separately and get your own datafeed or you can in many cases get them through your broker. TF is a good contract to trade although it's a little bit different from ES, NQ, YM. I like it but don't trade it myself. If you're looking to open a futures account at a brokerage, there are a few to say the least. Mirus, Amp and lots more. There is another called Vankar which is well worth a look. Anyway this is lol. -
Looks like you've been directed to a good source for some. As for others, I'd ask anyone to occassionally drop in the full terms of the abbreviations used for this very reason. But if you don't know, please ask;)
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Fear Yourself Young Apprentice and the Chaos Within
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Trading Psychology
I agree Rande but really it misses my point. My point is that all these emotions can be avoided to a great extent by actually preparing thoroughly for each day you trade. If you don't, then your enviroment becomes a chaotic one which your negative (or at least inappropriate) emotions then feed off. So I'm trying to show that there's a big step to not experiencing fear etc. before directly addressing the 'fear' itself. -
But it's not true in all circumstances. Think about it. If the market is balanced it is contained by ...(your answer here) If the market is imbalanced it is seeking ...(your answer here) If you view high and low volume areas in isolation, then I'd agree that low volume is often more obvious. But rarely by taking a basic approach do we obtain the best results. Looking harder and applying auction logic allows you to better judge situations where high(or low) volume areas act as good opportunities for point of entry.
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I guess that really depends on how you prefer to trade. I like to get in early if I can and then see if I'm right. There has to be something to make me think there's a good chance it'll at least get me onside though. Anyway, I hope at least some of you managed to stay awake today and make some $. Have a great weekend everyone!
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:helloooo: nobody want to play? you have virtually 50:50 chance (not starting that conversation right now, just saying).
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I'm voting vpoc then new highs
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Vote now: VPOC @1398.00 or new highs >1403.00?