Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.
TheNegotiator
-
Content Count
3239 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
2
Everything posted by TheNegotiator
-
Interesting to look at those yield spreads today vs how markets are moving...
-
Yesterday I posted (in big picture thread) that an aggressive counter move should be something to be wary of:- That is what we got. I'm not saying that after this, we'll just turn around and continue the move down. Of course there's a chance of this just as there's a chance of a continued short squeeze/relief rally. That's why I have outlined some levels to look for above where we are currently trading. If we tip back into selling, I'll be watching for what happens at the 1304.75 level and whether or not we slip into Monday's singles. Here's the chart:-
-
Fair enough, but I was talking about yield spreads...
-
The markets are reacting at the moment to news from Europe, so even if you're not checking the yield spreads, it's easy enough to work out what's going on if you wake up to way different prices. The idea for me is that if the markets are reacting directly to specific problems/revelations about Europe, there is a danger of much stronger moves taking place. If this is the case, you are more likely to see yield spreads widening. It "sets the scene" if you like.
-
Valid points. There are most certainly various different techniques and strategies to profit from the market and many of these are very effective. However, to improve your chances of success, an understanding of some kind of market conditions and phase is a valuable thing. Without context, candlestick trading methods for example are probably little better than a flip of a coin (this is not what I use to trade btw). When coupled with a sound knowledge of how the market is moving though, specific trading strategies can be applied far more appropriately. I'll use an analogy (probably a bad one ). To drive a car from point A to point B on a journey, you don't have to know exactly how to get where you are going. You don't have to even know the rules of the road in the particular country you're driving in. But unless you learn these things, isn't it likely that every time you get in the car, you'll either get lost and take ages to get to your destination if indeed you ever get there, you have an accident due to not knowing the rules of the road, or you get pulled over and booked so many times that you eventually have your license revoked? You could have Jenson Button style driving skills and still end up in any of these situations. The framing of a market's conditions in any way, auction or otherwise is not a strategy in itself. It's a roadmap/highway code, so you can use your trading strategy (or Jenson Button style driving skills) appropriately. Anyway, I hope that makes some sense lol
-
If there's no fundamental understanding of trading activity, even a very basic level, I believe it makes it much more difficult to be consistent in the long run or at least to evolve your strategies as markets shift.
-
Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in E-mini Futures
Here's an update for the last chart:- What's the salient information offered by the chart? Ask yourself what we're doing and how convincing is the current action. My view is that after sequentially higher yet wider balances, ES stopped its up trend in price, balanced more fully for a while and then broke balance to the down side. Over the last few days, this movement has accelerated and more volume has entered into the market. We haven't yet failed a test of what I consider possible important support levels. Imho, as we are moving lower we are bringing in more volume and more selling. Each day is closing near to its low. So, what am I saying? I'm saying that I think more likely than not, we have to move to test lower levels and the 2012 RTH open and low previously mentioned is something of a possible target. Although we are moving lower, due to the rapid change in prices, it's not unlikely at some point to see an aggressive test higher, so that is certainly something to be wary of. Remember, prices rarely move in a straight line from A to B. However, we are well within reach of the 2012 open & low for the week so that is something to look out for as a possibility. Watch out for any strong rejection of lower prices and a move quickly back higher. This will tell you whether things might have changed. -
? You want me to give examples of trading strategies?
-
Of course, but how do you account for it in your daily trading plan and routine?
-
I wanted to see how much attention TL users are currently paying to European Sovereign debt and specifically the spreads between the various 10 year government bond yields and the benchmark German 10 year (bund). How much do you look at the movement of sovereign debt spreads as a measure of risk, on a day to day basis? Does it factor into your trading in any way, mechanical or not? Or is there another way you track Europe? Anyway, for those who don't know where to get the data, Bloomberg has it:- Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain France Belgium United Kingdom
-
I know this is the e-minis thread, but out of interest is anyone here buying any fb?
-
maybe not so much :shrug:
-
I reckon they're still having problems @nasdaq but that's just a guess.
-
FB is go !
-
Okay, now it's 11:15am. This is getting embarrassing!
-
Meh. FB delayed 5mins.
-
Broadly balanced (around the 1304.75 high volume) before 11am FB kick-off:- Edit: FB quoting is going to start earlier(@10:45 I think)
-
Opex Friday today and first day listing of another evil empire. If you want to watch the stock (FB) but don't have a stock feed, go to freestockcharts.com and do as picture below:- Big move lower yesterday and test lower again in the overnight session, before turning back up- probably in anticipation of fb, g8, short risk and whatever else. It really doesn't matter to me too much but those are possible reasons. Option expiration with the current backdrop of Euromess etc., could be a little spicy -or much of the business could have been completed already. We'll have to see. Anyway, I'm looking at whether or not we stay below 25.25 or break back above. Acceptance of the highlighted development and the 2012 RTH open/low might be convenient targets and are in the same zone as important low volume. Take a look:- Be careful today, but when you choose to trade, I would suggest (not advise ) to be decisive and disciplined. Good luck!
-
So has anyone else got any theories for the day and what's happened so far?
-
I agree zdo that each trader's understanding and use of auction principles can vary to encompass aspects which are directly useful to them. I'd be interested to hear about your multi-level auction process. But really what I was getting at is that so many people do not start out trading with the idea that markets are auctions. Or at least they don't fully grasp the idea. Because of this, many strategies are "castles built on sand" so to speak.
-
Indeed there are those fomc mins later
-
Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in E-mini Futures
Here's a quick look at the bigger picture balances and what they could be saying:- -
Hmm. So what do we reckon for today then? ES stopped at important level yesterday in RTH, but tested lower in the overnight session. We've seen a pretty decent turn back higher though and although there's nearly an hour before open, I suspect the move higher won't reverse hard. Don't know that for sure of course. Industrial production is released at 9:15 am ET following the good housing figures just released. Given that we have Fed minutes due to be released later in the session and ongoing European fun, would it be totally surprising to see balanced trade somewhere in the cyan highlighted development in my last chart at least until later on? I think not, although of course the open should give us a better idea of that when we get there. We could of course drive one way or the other and if this happens it will be very important to see the level of support or resistance offered by the development extremes (25.25-46.75) and whether if at all they can hold it there.
-
Here's a brief explanation of yesterday. I don't need to tell you what I personally traded or didn't, but just point out that the important information was mostly there before the RTH session opened and that reading the day as it developed pointed to the test of the 25.25-26.00 area. It's important to say that the information (at least how I read it) didn't say that the low would be 25.25-26.00, but that it wanted to test it and on a break of the balance formed with Monday's profile, it was likely that the test would happen. It's also equally important to say that although Monday had fallen out of the 4-day balance and the 46.75 had been tested in the overnight session and rejected, had we tested that area again, the picture being painted might have been very different. Lastly, it is important to re-iterate that the market has been broadly news driven. This is not to say that technicals get thrown out the window- far from it. Just that perception can change very quickly and without prior technical basis. E.g. We could have failed at Monday's low putting in a fairly poor low, important news on a new pro-austerity Greek government being formed come out, then rallied straight through the rejection at 1346.75 area without a second thought. Anyway, here's the chart:-
-
I want to clear something up about the nature of the thread. Although I wholeheartedly agree with the principle of posting intention before the fact (and btw unless you immediately post on entry, even this is a pretty futile exercise), this is not the goal for the thread. This is mainly because unless you post all your trades and your orders/fills reports, all it is is subjective in its nature of describing a method/trader. One person would likely post so much as to render the thread useless. Posting without explanation is helpful to nobody, whether any particular individual believes it is or not. Period. The intentions of the thread are to:- 1) Discuss methods and provide relatively easy to follow explanations by way of examples. You can post trades which have worked and trades which haven't. If you want to, post the trade in realtime, but don't bother if you can't explain it at the same time. Imho, doing so is very difficult if you're to make the post useful for others. 2) Discuss the current markets in general and in particular the e-minis. Talking about specifics helps some to understand and others to have a level of accountability. 3) Camaraderie among traders. Have a place to go to discuss things with other traders that many retail traders do not enjoy. 4) NOT to post trades saying "bought at price x as it was point y on the third cycle of ew chart z" without having at least described what these things are previously. I don't believe that helps anyone in any way. If anyone wants to post realtime trades without explanation, I've no problem with that if that is what they wish to do. I can start a "Realtime Trades from DTEF" thread if anyone would like and we can establish some proper rules. Anyway.