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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in E-mini Futures
I actually did this chart yesterday but didn't get around to posting it. I wanted to share with you why I have changed my start date for my long-term profile. First of all, I'd like to point out that the current move up from the 2009 lows is the move that I am most interested in anyway. The edges are never ideal in that as they extend, there's no volume reference. So when I changed the chart to start from 3/14/7, it wasn't something I really wanted to do as such but more a neccessity. The reason I am changing back now is that we have (as of pre-open yesterday) spent two days below the most important nearby price at 1304.75. The most recent volume is more than sufficient to paint an accurate picture of trading activity and moreover, the most recent volume is more relavent. However, what I'm quite interested in is the high volume prices. The VPOC for the entire move up is still 1040.75. It clearly "liked" 1146.00 on the way up, but the nearest extremely high volume price is 1304.75. 1304.75 was the VPOC when starting the profile 3/14/7 and is clearly an important price for the market. The current difference in volume on the 3/6/9 chart is ~182k. IF the VPOC changes, we will have questions to ask. Is the market facilitating trade here in preparation for another leg higher? Is the market coming under increasing resistance to the current long-term uptrend and about to break much lower in a test of prior long-term value? Either way, I am thinking if a shift occurs it could change perceptions. -
I still think this is a little ambiguous Rande. I agree that understanding your own emotions to some extent and seeing how they affect your trading by observation is a good first step. But how does someone just pick that up and run with it? By their very nature, the emotions which you're trying to observe are skewing your perception of reality. Then when you think you've pinned down all these emotions, how is the average trader qualified to make truly meaningful conclusions about what they have observed? There are many guys who are very experienced in dealing with their own and other peoples' psychological(/neurochemical) disruptions here on the Traders Laboratory forums. I wanted to give them the chance to share some simple and easy strategies for others to implement into their own trading and research. Zdo made a good suggestion in setting out certain scenarios. For me, setting out possible problems and really exploring the intricacies of what each is and does is the first step. Then it's important to theorise when and where they might occur during the trading day and what the qualitative effects might be. Next comes diligently journalling in an "emotional diary" if you will. Try to be as clear as possible about each feeling and situation involved. Then comes studying of what you've written. Are there any themes so you can avoid or minimise situations where the issues arise? Are there any techniques you can use to "interupt" the problematic chemistry when it does occur? Is the direct awareness gained by the exercise as a whole leading to more stability anyway? Come up with some ideas and then repeat the process.
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Since the listing of FB, the stock has dived. I've added AAPL, GOOG & NQ for comparison. As I'm sure you're aware, it hasn't exactly been a smooth few days for stocks since the FB IPO, but then FB has done particularly poorly. Why is this? An over-ambitious pricing of the stock perhaps? Or a less than brilliant vision in the eyes of investors for how the company intends to make money? Or maybe it's something to do with all that technical nonsense that happened on the day at the Nasdaq? Well clearly none of these things help. But that's not really why FB has done so badly is it? I don't think so. Technical strength is built on fundamental timing. When the overall market is clearly risk averse, with US and German bond yields continually dropping and the specific risk event of the Greek election looming with the backdrop of a wider European sovereign debt crisis, what is the likelihood of seeing persistent strength in any stock? So why has it dropped so much? When stocks drop they often do so quickly when they are breaking from perceived value. What then supports them as they drop? Previous accepted value which we can indentify by studying technical price charts. But there's no previously accepted value for FB is there? Noooooooooo. Whoops. So where exactly does it stop? Anyone willing to take a gamble? The lesson is that if you're a company wanting to list, think long and hard about doing so before you do. Make sure that investors really believe in you. Make sure that you list when the market is moving the right way or at least not waiting for some big risk event to pass. You are not too big for the market to turn you into a flop. Anyway, whatever. I guess that MZ is still mega loaded and I still think FB sucks. :doh:
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Just nothing positive for the market to cling onto into the weekend. Next week might be interesting. Have a great weekend all!!
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I have to say, that first chart is making me dizzy! I suppose it doesn't matter if you can keep track of it all though. Move to and reversal from midpoint and low vol there was sweet.(forgot to mention VWAP too)
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Watching carefully now as near current low and near IB completion
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Or of course if you value your sanity!! (lol, maybe that's just me :crap:)
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DO NOT LET THE MARKET HYPNOTIZE YOU! If you don't have a good idea of what is going on, you don't have to trade
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much lower than where we are now (87.50 ish) and I feel it has the potential to become slippery down to o/n low.
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and just to remind anyone who's reading, we have ISM at 10am!
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This smells very much like "Fed has gotta do QE3 now"-type action! Btw that retrace there 1-tick failed the whole NFP move...
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half gap is gonna be somewhere in the region of that lvn you mentioned b4 bakrob/ yesterday's low.
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Not too much I have noted on the chart today. Just that the current retracement area is the single print buying tail from 1/18/12:-
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Just looking at the geometry a little bit here. Interestingly, if you take the NFP move (92.50-80.00) and plot the 100% reversal extension, where does that come in? 1305.00. Virtually right on the long term high volume price at 1304.75. Decent target if we do reverse at all I'd say!
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also possibly @77 .
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86.25 there is the 50% of the nfp move so far.
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looking to see what happens @75 area here if we get any extension.
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69k prev rev 77k .
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below 100 or above 200 is easy enough
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How much worse than the 150k expected for NFP's do we think would send the markets out of balance? How much better would they have to be to make the markets happy?
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Okay, well what yesterday proves is that my suggestion of this scenario didn't turn out to be what happened and I am not the Market Oracle!! Lol. But then you don't have to be right to make money and so long as you're attentive, flexible and have a good plan to take money from the market, you should do well in the long run. So today has some big numbers which could well move the market if they're out of line. It feels like a storm is brewing at the moment and although the releases today mightbe a possible flashpoint, the Greek elections are what really matter. They are due to take place 17th June. I suspect that they will end up coming to some comprimise to appease the markets to some degree, but then we've already established that I'm not an Oracle so perhaps it's better just to wait and see what does happen! Then of course we have the rest of Europe to contend with. I feel that pressure would ease significantly IF the Greeks get their house in order this June. Otherwise the fear is that the house of cards won't be standing for too much longer. In the US, the other main issue is whether or not Big Ben is going to give the economy another adreneline shot with a QE3 package. I'm not sure I think that this will help, but in the absence of any positive solutions to the current economic climate, I think the Fed will do this in one form or another. But what about today? Overnight in ES has seen a range between a high of 1307.50 down to a low of 1291.50 as of 7:20am. The pressure is clearly down and ADP/IJC figs yesterday may have people taking a more risk conscious stance into the 8:30am release of NFP. We also have ISM at 10am which in its own right, is a big number. It's also the 1st of the month and a double bank holiday in the UK for the Queen's diamond jubilee. So things could end up quieter until mid-next week. But then again, as we know, ACH and probably will :doh:
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The Un/importance of "context" when Scalping
TheNegotiator replied to lastninja2's topic in General Trading
Excellent. Just keep working away and be as professional as you can and of course if you ever have any questions, you know where to come -
The Un/importance of "context" when Scalping
TheNegotiator replied to lastninja2's topic in General Trading
LN2, Yeah you were kinda subconsciously defining context there. If you take a long because momentum is there and you time your trade so that you get onside a few pretty much instantly, why are you choosing to do so at that specific point? You might see that volume/delta accelerating (without capitulating) through obvious resistance after earlier having failed to continue either at or below key support, as lending enough support to the idea that you could well nick a tick or two with your ninja-like order flow skills . I have found that the more you think through and try to understand what you do (successfully or otherwise), the better placed you are to make consistent decisions. If for example, you were to remain a scalper, yet thoroughly take on board the concept of auction principles, I believe it's possible to really increase your win:loss. Possibly even push the scalp a couple of extra ticks in many cases. -
Nice one buddy! Shame about the short @12 but just shows that there's no need to chase the market and take substandard entries.
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Did anyone manage to get anything on the move down there? I took 12.00 to 8.25 scratched some at 7.00 as I felt there was a danger of a quick snap back, then I sold 4.25 against the 4.75's and ended up out @1.00. I had a downward bias which got me in the first short and then the persistence of selling + 1300.00 low vol/naked vpoc/psychological area vicinity was just too tempting for the market imo so that was when I shorted the retest of 4.75. Not too bad in the end and was in their for the possibility of a collapse below 1300 (although considering we traded below only a few days ago, this was unlikely. The idea was there in case of time dependent risk aversion really came into play).