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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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True. I have this nagging feeling right now though that if we haven't just put in a short term high, the 23's will get smashed.
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if it gets there, 23's are the mark for me
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Thus far, open type = Open Auction In Range. Not surprising considering opening location.
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We were very balanced before the 08:30 numbers, with the low being 1314.50 at that point. 1314.50 area was low volume from yesterday's RTH session, Monday's VPOC and the 3-day balance VPOC. It's also the midpoint of what is now a 4-day "balance". So it could play a role in the RTH session too. Let's see. Markets are moving quite a bit going into the Greek elections and this isn't too much of a surprise. Today is slightly different from a structural point of view, in that it looks as though we will be opening somewhere around the middle of the 4-day balance as opposed to the opening near the edge of the balance or prior day's range. I don't necessarily believe this will greatly inhibit movement as I don't think there's a well defined profile for the last 4 days anyway. But it's certainly something to be aware of. Remember, the day is long and the opportunities are plentiful!
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I'll get us started with one. Syndicated articles. What do I mean by this? Trading/Investing articles in many cases not even rewritten, simulanteously reposted around the interweb in order to gain more exposure for the author and possibly better rankings for their own websites. Why do I believe syndicated articles should be consigned to Room 101? Well, I think they show a complete lack of invention and thought to start with. The fact is, readers are not stupid. Quality is far more important than quantity. Reposting the same article around the web is annoying to me as a reader, especially when the article in question amounts to little more than fluff. It actually makes finding great content harder and it amounts to spam. So I say dump syndicated trading articles into Room 101 for good and avoid them at all costs! What do you reckon?
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I thought it time we had a thread dedicated to the things that traders hate, despise and utterly loath. Room 101 was the the place for these things. The TV(and formerly radio) series was pretty entertaining, so I thought it would be nice to give traders the chance to forever banish their own pet hates into Room 101. Simply nominate a pet hate and explain why you believe it's rubbish. Then everyone can vote on it and I'll make a list of all items which end up there. For example, you might hate trading mentors or financial news channels or even just a simple moving average. Whatever it is, let us know and maybe we'll agree.
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No selling really below the figure = confidence to buy and move back up. Nice action.
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True. However, thus far it's all negative volume into support and not through it. Through it and we could flush, hold firm and it'll be fuel for a rally.
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How is everyone doing? Seems a bit skittish early on.
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yup. Then 19.25/75 area above.
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Just one note was that NQ was a tad weaker yesterday, so it'll be worth paying attention to it to see whether it holds up at all.
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Right, yesterday was a great advert for not being married to one particular idea. When the market moves like it did, there are some fantastic opportunities, but it's important to note that with those opportunities come risks. Those on the wrong side of things can end up having a very bad time. So plan for possibilities not for what you expect to happen. If I were a soothsayer, I'd never need to even look at a chart. I get things wrong all the time. I'm sure you all do too. I'm also sure that so does PTJ or some other BSD. Being wrong is an inevitable part of this game. So covering that possibility is important and know what might happen in the market in that case, puts you one step ahead when you know you're not always going to be at your most rational. Anyway, the fact that the ES had a big down day yesterday is pretty clear to all. However, I feel it's important to note that 1) the market is gearing up for the 6/17 Greek election & 2) ES only managed to take Friday's low out by two ticks and closed back above the 1300 mark. It might dump like we've never seen before today. I can't tell you it won't. But I do think it's important to recognise that there's also a good chance it will rally hard. Don't let the volatility blind you into thinking it's going to automatically continue in one direction. See what the early sentiment is and realise that there will be plenty of chances in all likelihood, so don't be too worried about missing a trade. Here's a chart:-
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Approach to trading is all too often a one-dimensional activity. "I will look to buy at X and take profit at Y" might be said approach. Now I know many will understand the idea that an entry is an entry, but trade management is probably much more important to your bottom line. However, I know for new traders at least and perhaps some who have been around for a while longer, the method of exiting a trade is frequently overlooked. The reason for this is simply that if you can't pick a trade, how are you gonna manage it? You have to find a decent way to select your trades before you can appropriately manage them. Anyway, once a trader has a way to select a trade which in a good number of cases gets them onside, there is another issue. How to exit the trade. Not just where your targets are. But more importantly, where you abandon ship when things aren't looking terribly promising. This is perhaps one of the most important aspects that a trader needs to address if they either A) do not wish to or B) are unable to take multiple "scales" on exit (to scale = to close a small portion (or enter a small portion) of a trade). How many times do you see what looks like a decent entry turn and run against you? Does this need to happen in order for you to remain in a trade when it would turn out to be a good one? The market is always testing. Testing balance, testing imbalance. If for example you take a continuation trade, it tests the last known extreme before continuing or balancing/reversing. If the market struggles to extend through that point, isn't it sound logic that there is still opposing interest and so a deeper counter rotation might be necessary? If this is the case, wouldn't it make sense that your position is potentially under threat? Simply exiting at this point doesn't necessarily make sense to me, although if you were from the scaling camp, then you might take something off when presented with this situation. Either way, you should be on alert. Alert that if then, counter trend activity increases and prices thrusts against you, there is a good chance that you'll be seeing a retest of at the very least, the location of the attempted point of continuation. The next thing to point out, which every risk conscious trader must be aware of, is when you take a trade what is the accuracy and quality of your trade "location"? Is it close to where the market turned? Is the turn close to where you had expected a possible turn to materialise? Was the turn well received? I.e. did it move effortlessly away from the area or was it a struggle? With this, you will have a better idea of how swiftly and decisively you will need to act. Finally, if activity does then reverse and give you a clear signal to exit, you have the chance to cover before the market forces you to by your risk plan. i.e. when your stop is hit. I trade in a certain way and by no means is what I am describing suitable or even relevant for everyone. However, I'd suggest to all traders to look at some sort of early exit method as a contingency plan as turning many small losses into small winners can make a big difference to your bottom line.
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This is very true indeed. However, in an industry which requires so much self-direction I fear that those who need such an important facet to their developmental process to be pointed out to them, may not have the appropriate character to succeed at trading in the long run anyway.
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I think it's unlikely and I've never heard it happening. But that doesn't mean it can't happen. Just so you know. I think there are lots of options. ES is decent because you get good liquidity and it's quite technical, although some people hate it. Lots of choices though if you go with a good broker.
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Yup. Just apart from anything, take a look at the difference in volume between the two...
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Nikko, we had an open-test-drive from open. The market is responsively selling after a pretty decent move up (1258.75-1330.00). I think there's at least a few people who think they've got a decent location for their short, don't you? Look, I'm not saying we won't go higher, just that there are a number of reasons right now to go lower. Don't get married to your trade. Btw, I'm not telling you what you should do with your trade because you are the only one who is and can be responsible for it and your actions.
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The convention is to roll the Thursday in the week prior to expiry. This usually means the 2nd Thursday but not this time. Front month is Sept.
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Are you still trading June btw?
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I think there are comments etc. coming out of Europe. Just make sure you act on what the market does do rather than what you hope it might do.
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I hope you managed to get out okay.
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Joaquin, there is always the remote theoretical possibility of losing the entire value of the contract if you are holding a long position (you have bought). Theoretically, if you are short (you have sold) then your risk is unlimited (i.e. the contract could go up in value to currently unfathomable prices and keep going). The thing is, if you trade during the primary session only and close all positions off before the end of the session, your risk is potentially much lower. It's possible you loose the entire value of the contract, but unlikely. If you decide trading futures is not for you and wish to close the account, then you can just do that. The only liability you should have (apart from non-trading things like broker commissions and services) is when you have an open position. The other thing that you really need to be aware of for futures trading is contract expiry. If you hold a position into expiry then that could end up costing you an awful lot of money. So know when the last trading day for the contract you trade is and when the "roll" of the contract (change of front month) happens so you know when to switch to trading the new contract.
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Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
TheNegotiator replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Welcome gannasmk! TL has plenty of facinating articles/threads etc. which you might be able to really learn from. Any questions you have just post as we have some very experienced members here! -
Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
TheNegotiator replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Welcome Karim! It's important to try to identify the objectives for your strategy before deciding which methods to employ. Make sure once you do decide on your methods, you understand fully how they work. There is a danger that new investors/traders chop and change methods in order to find that "secret sauce" or "holy grail". What they often miss is that it's more about themselves. Good luck in your investing/trading and enjoy the forums! -
Nikko, what timeframe do you trade on? I'm looking at what you're saying and see quite a long-term picture. Not sure it's especially relavent to day trading, but feel free to post your ideas in Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion thread. As far as what happens today, I couldn't guarantee we'll be "off to the races" so to speak. We opened Sunday higher and pushed on the 1341.25 level but been down from there ever since. Broken lower just to 1327.25 and not looking strong up here. It will be important to judge the market by its early trading and have multiple scenarios to trade. The suggestion is that we at the very least, need to test lower before deciding whether or not to take off to the up side. I think there's a decent chance we will, but I won't be blindly buying in this instance. Of course, this could be the test lower and we trend higher into open. In which case, my idea might be very different @09:30. Let's see. It's important to me to have a number of ideas and never get too attached to any of them. Usually when I do, that's when things start to go haywire. :doh: