TheNegotiator

How did everyone get on post-fed yesterday? It looks like it moved about a good amount if you waited for your spots.

Fair enough. We might just see today though! Lol. Anyway, isn't it just another opinion? Should it matter whether they are saying the financial system is due to collapse or everything is rosy and will be great going forward? I think we can say that many "Gurus/experts/economists" are all just sensationalist nonsense talkers in pursuit of creating the most read news rather than the most accurate and wise insight. Mass media is just the same in fairness. Maybe where there is the demand for this drivel, it will be filled. So rather than putting the "Gurus/experts/economists" and as Tim puts it "Talking heads" into Room 101, maybe we should put the people who buy into the crap and provide the means for its existence into Room 101. What do you reckon? I'm not sure we can put the bell into room 101 btw- that's just kinda mean.

I'd strongly suggest to anyone who is serious about trading to think very carefully about whether using a mobile phone app for trading is a good idea. The interface, speed, reliabilty and security issues make it something I personally wouldn't do. If you have a position and you absolutely must leave, either make sure you have a way of getting through to your broker's execution desk quickly or close the position out before you leave.

Trading is a maze of different approaches, possibilities, choices and outcomes. From money management to trading psychology, the information we must process to form coherent trading methods and apply them effectively to the markets may as well be endless. This is the very reason why trading can at times be so difficult. “A series of meaningful choices”- a quote borrowed from somewhere else, I believe sums up how we strive to succeed in trading and life in general. Yet when presented with too much information and too many possible routes, how is it possible to make these “meaningful choices” (and good) on a consistent basis? I believe it’s very hard. So my approach is to distill trading into as simple objectives as reasonably possible and then look for, formulate, assess and apply methods which fulfill these objectives in a way which I can make work. So what is my “Not-So-Magic Trading Formula” I hear you ask. Well let me first make it clear that this is not some trading secrets revelation-type thread. They are ten-a-penny or a-dime-a-dozen on the net. They don’t truly exist. They never actually deliver. This is the real “holy grail” so think hard before you again dismiss the wisdom as something you can’t use to get that perfect entry time and time again. What I want to say is that there are basic areas you must work on in a structured and ordered way to enable you to trade by a full and comprehensive plan. I know this is something many do not do and so it’s important to start simply. To ensure you are able to make a “series of meaningful choices” you must cover in your plan:- Strategy- What are you trying to capitalize on specifically? How much risk is potentially associated with your plan? Typically, how often do trade opportunities show up and how frequently are they successful? Market assessment- What is the market doing at the moment? If your strategy is a bracket strategy, it’s probably not going to work very well when the market is trending. How exactly do you define specific market conditions? Trade management- Do you have rules to exit trades early? Do you have fixed or variable profit targets? Do you fully understand that in spite of having done all your research and worked out a great plan, any individual trade can look as good as anything and yet other participants ready to act can end up disagreeing on that specific trade and just because that trade doesn’t work, does mean that the strategy is rubbish? I don’t want to keep going, I just wanted to illustrate the fundamental constituents to trading so that you can decide for yourself what exactly is important to your trading and how the vast amount of information out there relates to your plan. Then maybe, just maybe you will be able to make that “series of meaningful choices”.

So today is Fed day. Of course we're going to be more focused on what the Fed might do. Will they hint at QE3? Will they not? Here's a really quick chart:-

I can't remember what the premium was for definite but it might of been 6.25 or something from memory. Don't quote me on that though. I'm just using dtn's continuous contract @ES# so it does the adjustment automatically.

For 5/7, I have RTH close of 59.25 and naked vpoc @58.00

I did get the data but with the same result. At 95.75 there's a volume spike out of keeping with such a large amount of data. That kind of thing indicates to me that there may be a data issue, so will need to check after market close.

Doesn't look like I'm going to get the data in time. The levels I mentioned are the ones I am interested in though.

I just noticed a possible problem @1295.75 so am redownloading data. Hopefully it'll finish b4 the open and I'll be able to repost the screenshot.

Does this work for you?

For RTH targets I have 43.50 followed by 47.00. 45.50 is there but I'm not especially interested in it. Above that I have 49.50 ish, 53/53.75 then 58/59.25. Have to see what plays out if it goes higher.

what's your 2nd target?

Yup. Highly balanced and waiting for a break either way. Considering where the balance is, I'm not sure that 23.00's are likely to hold and the recent activity above is pretty thin. Who knows :missy:

Here's the updated intraday chart:-

Not a bad little move from the 7.25 low at all. next up is overnight high and then the 16.75's

Obviously the open was not fancied to break there. Maybe this time ...

Was a nice little setup from the 7.50's too. Maybe we'll get those 13.25's now.

I'm liking the 13.25's from yesterday and overnight action. Then it's 16.75. If they can't hold buyers, it's going to be 20/21 next but I suspect there'd be at least a test of the 23's in that case. Failure at either of the first 2 levels and I would still like to see a test of the 1298.25's, although that's not to say we couldn't trend back to the middle towards the close(or even sell-off/rally lol).

There is uncertainty and a high degree of risk on both sides. I think the over-riding thought is that they can't let Europe fail and Greece will sort something out. But that's by no means forgone conclusion either. They could just say "enough is enough", default and leave the Euro. Who knows. What I see right now is a market which is in a wide balance. The lows are poor, but then the highs aren't great either. Given the lack of follow through to the downside last week, the higher volume dev could be accounted for by short covering into the Greek Weekend. However, I don't believe we should be reading it like you would in the normal technical manner. Until this weekend is over, all bets are off. Anything could happen.

Thought I'd post an early morning chart for you to deliberate:- Notice the wide 5-day balance and that in spite of the sell-off yesterday, the daily VPOC is overall moving up.

"Due To The Extreme Volatility Some Market Analysts Foresee..." | ZeroHedge Is this for real? Edit: I think it's just for Sunday which is not particularly surprising. Is anyone actually planning on holding a position into the Greek elections?

So how specifically do you feel Bloomberg TV is deserving of 101 status as opposed to CNBC? Also, what's your vote for syndicated articles?

I'll take that as two votes for syndicated trading articles then! Okay mitsubishi, we've established that the scales are very much laden in the favour of things which you hate. However, there must be one or two things at the top of the tree for you. Let's start with your number one hate and go from there

This is what I love about ES - it's always "trying" to line up levels. Right now, guess where the midpoint is? 1314.50 Edit: that doesn't mean I think we will or won't go there btw. Just a convenience thing.