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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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The Merits of Setting Profit and Loss Targets???
TheNegotiator replied to lastninja2's topic in Futures
Just so long as you try to realise what is real and what is not. Depends how much was absorbed and at what price. If the action is substantial, it should be worth more than a couple of ticks. Just run it until you think it might be about to reverse if you are scalping. Really though, to see how much has gone through, a volume footprint is a massive benefit. At the very least, you should look at a candlestick chart based on small volume (not sure how much but will take a look for you shortly). That way you can see that when there are a tight set of candles together, there's probably this type of action going on. -
Squeeze on the shorts from Egan Jones Germany downgrade news to test 1321 or revert to mean and back somewhere towards vpoc at 11.50 and possibly 2-day vpoc at 1307?
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Neutral day then, but where are we likely to close? Inside or outside the IB? Just missed Thurs close by a tick there on the high.
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The Merits of Setting Profit and Loss Targets???
TheNegotiator replied to lastninja2's topic in Futures
I know a fair few guys who scalp the Eurostoxx and I think it's doable so long as you know what you're looking for before you get into a trade (and have some decent fast tools). Otherwise it is just like LN said, that there are a million different reasons you could take a trade. Identify what you want to see and where you want to see it in your plan and trade that plan. Just like any other method. You might miss some big possible winners that way and take a few losers you feel could've been avoided, but then you are at least focused on something. Then, if that plan isn't working brilliantly you can look at it again. -
The Merits of Setting Profit and Loss Targets???
TheNegotiator replied to lastninja2's topic in Futures
If you're trying to run a trade, ideally you'll want to be in at a significant price. Just getting in any old place is dangerous even if it does move a few ticks in your direction first. So do your homework to identify good areas to place those kind of trades. Next, don't beat yourself up when a scalp runs for 5,10 or more ticks. If your trade was a scalp, your objective was to scalp and not to run it. Doesn't matter what the market does afterwards. Re:"If you stare at the price ladder long enough, you can find a million reasons to buy or sell." - true. But you should have definite reasons and know what you are looking for. Too many reasons will just make you freeze or make wrong decisions. The problem is with looking for only a few ticks in the way you describe, that a small fluctation in the opposite direction can stop you out or wipe out theoretical profits. You really need to be very much in the flow of things if you want to trade this way to exit before price reverses. I'd suggest looking at Market Delta or Sierra Chart for their volume footprint charts. Also get a good DOM. I think stops and targets are a good thing, but maybe not so much when you are looking for such a small number of ticks. Obviously you need a max tolerance to exit at though. The other possibility is if you trade multiple contracts, even scalping you might look at scaling out to quickly offset risk. -
Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
TheNegotiator replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Welcome to TL Joe! Lots of people have had similar experiences to you. It's almost as some say, the cost of a trading education. Just make sure you learn the lessons well. If you keep getting the same results, then there may be something you are missing. Members here are experienced and always generous with sharing their knowledge, so if you have something you're unsure of, just ask! Pop over to the e-mini thread link in my sig if you still want to trade the eminis. -
Yeah it's pretty annoying when that kind of thing happens. Really says you should at least be lightening up probably.
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Probably yes. Which is the stronger pull tho? Gap to 6.75 or 18.25? my guess is 6.75 as nearest is usually best.
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Obviously, anything can and usually does happen and with consumer confidence due at 10am, the picture could look quite different by then. But, here are a few thoughts right now. The market is out of short-term balance (last few days) but back within broader balance (last few weeks). The open showed initiative selling on an OTD therefore, but it could be argued it was just longer-term responsive too. It could also be said that the last 3 days have been long-liquidation to some extent given the prior move higher and the uncertainties we currently face. In spite of the OTD open, the market ended up with a balanced intraday profile indicating that 2-way trade was found with lower prices. Indeed, we re-entered a highly traded area and so this wasn't especially unexpected. Into close, there was heavy selling pressure which failed to break prices lower than seen earlier in the day. This means that selling pressure was being absorbed at least to some extent. Overnight has remained tight and slightly higher than the close, with volume quite light even if there is some time to go until RTH open. Looking at a 24hr chart, we have drifted up some so it could be that we are just moving back a little before breaking lower. 1298.25 wasn't quite hit yesterday although it was maybe a little too close to remain a good reversal point. It could still be though. It's also "Counter-trend Tuesday" and so given some encouragement, I think there could be some upside potential. With the 6/22-6/25 gap being attractive, with a skipped gap at 18.25 from 6/21, important low vol at 1321.00 and 6/22 VPOC at 1323.50 yet to be retested there are a few stepping stones for the market if it does decide to look upwards. Below 1293.00 there is a largish buying tail down to 1286.75 from 6/6 then a gap down to 1279.00 for any longs to be wary of.
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Fair enough. It's important to check yourself on fading that kind of market as it'll undo days worth of profits if you're not careful. Inside IB and couldn't even get to the 27.2% IB extension. Stopped right at a level (1305.25) too. Not showing too much to the downside for now. Perhaps we need a better test higher before deciding which way. ACH
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Of course the issue for a new trader is going to be that how can they make informed choices in something that they really don't have much or any experience in. However, there are basics and fundamentals which really can be picked up very quickly which do make a big difference. Are you looking at breakouts or brackets for example? How big should the maximum size of a losing trade be relative to your account. Much of trading is common sense, discipline and courage/conviction. If you don't have any of that before you first look at a chart then you don't have a cat in hells chance of making it. Even so, I agree that a new but sensible trader will not have the experience to know where to seek knowledge. Unfortunately for traders, unlike standard education learning to trade is not a mandatory task, so there aren't trading schools as such where you can learn from. Not to say that standard schools are places where you will receive a good education, just that there should be a minimum level to which they are required to meet. Not that they always do either. How to learn to trade other than by books and self-education and sheer will/determination/practise is usually going to be from a mentor. Not some guy on the net who offers mentoring services. But a a successful trader in their own right who is willing to pass on their knowledge and skills. This is something that needs really imho to happen in a company- fund/bank/arcade. This way you'll see all of what they do. Not all great traders are great teachers. That being said, you could go to a firm, learn off a great trader who's a great teacher, market conditions change and then you realise that their strategy was really only going to last for a short while at which point you are back to square one. Trading is not like most other endeavours.
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Okay, that's fair and similar to what I do. The reason I was asking was because you said before that today is a trend day. I know that pre-open we have moved down and so far RTH we have pushed lower, but I just wouldn't myself label it a trend day yet.
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Do you base most of what you do on 24hr or RTH?
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That was just one of those trades for me. Given the OTD, I often look for a follow through move after the first move is over. Never too keen on it going back through the mid though as that portends to the possibility of the IB turning into an Open-Reject-Reverse type. Can happen. However, in this case, mid was at 12.00, level at 13.25 and the quick spike higher on the better than expected New Home Sales ( 7.6% exp 0.6%- prev 3.3% rev to -1.2%) gave a really good chance to enter a short. I did this at 12.25. I also like a quick reversal when a spike like that happens and as it wasn't really happening, I exited mostly at 11.00 just above a minor level I had. Oh well. One of those Monday morning trades. Almunia was talking too in fairness, so anything could have happened.
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Bear in mind we have New Home Sales in a few at 10am (and Dallas Fed at 10:30am)
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I think it looks pretty reasonable no? Or are you talking about 24hr volume total?
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Feels like a bit of an ordered move down so far on the OTD (open-test-drive) type open.
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Well we pretty much did rest on Friday with a break slightly higher later in the day. Overnight we have had a lower bias so far and the overnight vpoc so far is right at the 17.50 low from Thursday. That could be a decent place to start today. Above it and we'll be looking to test at the very least, Friday's low 1320.50 and then close the gap to 1325.75. Below and I'd think 1315.00, 1313.25, 1308.50/07.25 will be on the cards with the high volume at 1298.25 certainly well within reach. Overnight we've had Spain officially asking for aid for its banks, Egypt get a new leader and Syria sail close to the wind with Turkey. Euro is again moving lower as is crude. There's an EU summit later in the week, 4th July holiday next then NFP's closely after. We have New Home Sales at 10am today. My guess is that given the amount of news flow and proximity to the holiday, there could be some decent movement this week but squaring up into next. Gotta see what happens and take each trade as it comes. Here's a chart:-
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In these specific examples, is it even true that to learn how to "drive a car, ride a horse, learn karate, become a doctor" the person who is "training" you must have a professional qualification in order to do so? Or is it the case that actually, any "tom, dick or sally" can show you (in most cases) what to do in order to become competent at the specific skill but then you must pass a certification yourself? I think in many cases, when we seek out a teacher, those who can demonstrate a level of skill by having a professional certification separate themselves from those who don't. Otherwise, how do you know whether a stranger is good or not, or even someone who claims to have a skill which you don't actually have is of a high level of skill? Perhaps what should therefore be addressed as of primary importance is the level of certification required to trade at all. Trading through a broker you will need ziltch. If you are registered with an exchange however...
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My intention is to illustrate that there is so much to consider in trading, that without a set of well considered core objectives, each and every choice you make is going to be much more difficult to make and then to follow. If you really know what you are trying to do, you will be less likely to be bogged down by the vast amount of information out there and prosper far more. Perhaps it's something akin to moral values and principles. If you have a strong set, then no matter how many obstacles you may come accross, you are likely to be better equiped to tackle them as they come. For me, there is so much information out there through authors, coaches, media and so on. There is crap out there, but there is also good stuff or at least stuff that's not bad, but it's dismissed nevertheless due to the individual not being able to make it work for them. The key for me is that the people who do make ideas work who are genuine, have this underlying organisation of principles of what they are trying to achieve. In not conveying this, the vital part of the equation is missed. The specifics of the strategies are just the manifestations of driven, determined and skilled traders.
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Excuse me mitsubishi? Bad day?
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What a drop yesterday huh? Clearly that upper area was not accepted as value at all!! Lol. I hope everyone did well. Anyway, no numbers today at all. Possible resting day after a big move like that but daily ranges are still big so don't expect a sub-10 point range at all. Let the market tell you what it wants to do not the other way around. Good luck.
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Really crappy Philly Fed read there and Existing Home Sales was pretty poor too.
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Yesterday was a neutral day and neutrals often follow neutrals. What I will be watching for today is whether or not we end up showing signs of accepting the highlighted development as value and therefore trade it accordingly. If we don't rest/balance, then depending on which direction we're moving and with how much vigor, I'll have to assess how far I think we'll go.
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Sounds like you had a blinder!