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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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Some classic action going on there:-
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There's now confusion as to actually what has been ruled. Possibly upheld but "limited". I'd stand back until we actually know what is going on here.
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Just take care if you are trading. Don't get sucked in for no reason other than the movement.
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Health care law has been upheld completely aparently. ES reacting now.
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Watch out. Supreme court info coming out it looks like. Nothing on health care yet though.
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Not that it's a massive number anyway, but it looks like that Kansas City Manufacturing Activity release is at 11am not 10am.
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OTD open so far (test was attempt of yesterdays low) for a break with the gap type move. We've hit the 27.2% extension on the low so far so I'd want to see it break that soon. If it does, the 100% ex is at 07.75 right in that important 07.25-08.50 zone. Otherwise they will likely try to close the gap. Probably need to be looking at the half gap ~ 21.75 too if it gets there.
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Oh yeah and there's this supreme court ruling on "obamacare" later on today. Such fun!!
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What a rumour to kick off the day. Will they actually do it though? If they did, are they likely to announce anything today? Probably not.
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GDP a little better, Initial Jobless Claims and PCE a little worse, Kansas City Manufacturing Activity to come at 10am. Lots of news flow from Europe has seen a bit more activity in the overnight session so far than the last couple of overnight sessions. I think we could get some interesting action RTH and unless we get some ground breaking new info, I doubt we'll see fireworks. You never know though ACH! Here's a chart:-
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Absolutely agree. But at some point they will have to do something. This is not just about sentiment, this is about fundamental instrinsic flaws in the system and the current problems which have been created because of them. 5 years maybe they will have "commited" but I fear it could be much longer before things start to organically improve.
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Agree with MM. You are human. Just as it would be impossible to stop breathing, it would be impossible to eliminate all emotions. However, there are three things to help minimise emotional impact. 1- Make sure you don't muck about. Do what you should. Fully prepare each day. Do the work. Properly journal. Review that journal. 2- Approach trading properly. Know that to stay in the game, managing risk is your strongest ally. Know that to lose on one trade is not to be a bad trader or to fail. Take your stops as something important to protect you. 3- Be aware of your emotions. You mentioned meditation. Think about mindfulness. If you are aware of your emotions you can train yourself to react to those emotions in a better way. Over time, just as you can adapt and improve your physical fitness, you should be able to get better at controlling the way you react to you emotions. Otherwise it's a pretty reasonable plan. Not sure about the idea of trading a certain number of setups per day though. I think maybe taking a number of consecutive losing trades and then stopping has merit. But if you take a winner then stop it's not always going to be thing. Maybe that day was particularly good for your strategy then the next, when you actually up the number of setups you take, is not. When it/you is good, capitalise on it.
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Is it me or have we heard it all before when it comes to these EU Summits? Today marks the start of the 19th summit in 2 years. That's right, the 19th! There's talk about Germany being willing to negotiate on Eurobonds and also trying to get Italy's borrowing costs to fall to below 4% from it's current 6.2%. Spain surely will be on the agenda with their borrowing costs ~7% and having just formally asked for financial (and unconditional!) support for their banking sector. Here's a brief schedule:- http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9359289/EU-Summit-schedule.html What do they actually achieve I ask other than wasting their time and tax payers money? Sure, they need to meet and discuss the way forward. Just as they do in their own countries- which clearly hasn't helped matters either. So what is it then? A reassurance to the markets that "we know there's a problem and we're on the case" followed by a jolly up in Brussels? Because seriously, I do not know what they actually expect to achieve other than process. By this I mean banging heads against brick walls for long enough to eventually realise that the EU is fundamentally flawed. I don't see them as especially well qualified to take proper measures. After all, they are politicians right? They just want to be re-elected in the mean time and convince themselves they are doing the right thing- there's no better lie than one told by someone who believes it's true. So I ask you again, what on earth do they do at these damn EU Summits and why should we even raise an eyebrow each time another one of these pointless ceremonies rolls around?
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The important thing to recognise is that there are key times at all and you should be aware that something could happen around those times. So it's good to point out. I do also keep an eye out for any change in activity around the 30&60 min mark as I do often notice a flurry of activity. It doesn't always change things, but it's often there and worth having at the back of your mind at the very least.
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The Merits of Setting Profit and Loss Targets???
TheNegotiator replied to lastninja2's topic in Futures
Very nice LN. I'm sure others will be interested too. Finished up for the day, well done. -
1327.50 is a definitely maybe too as it was a low volume area from 6/22.
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Trading pretty reasonable so far today. Initial open-drive on open kinda turned into an open-reject-reverse in the same direction so I didn't think it was as strong as if it had carried on higher first before pulling back. However, the market actually ended up looking pretty strong when it was moving higher and looked like we could plough on up. It looks a little more likely that it was short covering now though, but time will tell. We could easily push higher given we've actually only had a 9.25 point range so far. above, 1330.25 would easily be within reach considering recent ranges, with 31.75/32.75 just beyond. Any decent move lower could easily see a gap close to 1316.00 and then close of 13.75/13.25 yesterday's vpoc/closing range low. Any of you guys having any joy yet today?
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Just remember that other housing data this week so far has beaten average expectations so there will be a positive expectation for these too.
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Yesterday we broadly held Monday's range. We tested the low end of it and rejected fairly quickly. We then moved higher. The target was 1321.00 as it divides activity well and could be seen as a test before any further move lower or even a reversal back up towards recent highs. We also failed to test 1298.25 again. We're in that area still though and it wouldn't surprise me if we saw a test quite soon if not today. Hey, we could end up with a 1321.00 high and a 1298.25 low today! You never know. There's lots of news flow potentially about and we have the EU summit tomorrow. Merkel and Hollande are going to speak at 2:30pm today I believe. We have the holiday next week closely followed by NFP's. Market could slow right down into that, but if there is business to be done before, then the rest of the week could still move. We also have 10am/10:30am releases of pending home sales and crude inventories which follow on from decent enough durables seen earlier.
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Recap chart for yesterday:-
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The Merits of Setting Profit and Loss Targets???
TheNegotiator replied to lastninja2's topic in Futures
You'd have to try it out real-time if you're allowed at all, but I would try something in the region of 1000-2500 volume per candle. 2000 looks pretty good to me. -
The Merits of Setting Profit and Loss Targets???
TheNegotiator replied to lastninja2's topic in Futures
Btw LN, I think this is a really good idea and I think others would find it really valuable to see how you're doing in the eurostoxx. Get it done -
Take a look at this thread to get you started:- Considerations for a Wannabe Trader...
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:helloooo: There is no red flag smiley, but if there was one it is what I'd have used instead. I work full time. Number one red flag. Trading is really something you need to be commited to if you are to do well of the long run. Part time traders often don't do well. Perhaps some do. But there is so much involved that mentally and emotionally, you'll need to put alot into trading. Doing a fulltime job as well is not going to help you. Red flag two. "Im looking to supplement my income making an extra $100-$400 extra per week." Really Gurvinder, those who come into trading to try to make extra cash are not starting for the right reasons imho. Trade as a challenge or because you are passionate about it. Because you will lose whether or not you like it. There will be bad days or even weeks or longer especially to begin with. My suggestion is to take a look at forums, websites etc. before you do anything. If you really feel you wish to continue then get a trial with a broker. Don't give them your money until you really think you have a shot at doing well. Don't get sucked into paying a small fortune to someone for an "education" either. That works for some, but in many cases whether or not the educator is good, it won't work. In any case, good luck. TradersLab has a wealth of knowledge and if you have any more questions then just ask!
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The Merits of Setting Profit and Loss Targets???
TheNegotiator replied to lastninja2's topic in Futures
If you have the choice between Market delta (make sure you get iqfeed for the data) and CQG integrated client, get MD. It's cheaper and better. On the micromanagement. First thought is that a trade isn't a winner or a loss until you close it. So if you believe in your plan before you put it on, there should be no reason to cut a winner short. I know this might feel uncomfortable at times, but you should learn that discomfort and disguish between anxiety of it possibly turning around and moving against you and concern because actual reasons are suggesting it will turn. Second thought is that if you are experiencing micromanagement sometimes helping and sometimes hindering, maybe you need to think about it again. It's conceiveable that it's making no real difference and the varying results are just down to luck. If the way you manage does not improve your results then all it will do is make you exhausted. That's not to say don't do it, but look at how you do it.